史上最大的泡沫 中國樓市暴漲引崩盤擔憂大綱

SHANGHAI — Zheng Ruizhen counted herself among the last holdouts on Lufeng Road.

上海——鄭瑞珍（音）認爲自己是陸豐路上最後的釘子戶之一。

Even as high-rises sprang up in recent years to surround her dilapidated home, Ms. Zheng, a 50-year-old schoolteacher, and her husband, Sun Guojian, held firm. He grew up there. Her school was a 20-minute bicycle ride away. They raised their son there, though he eventually grew so tall that his head grazed the ceiling of his cramped room. When city officials pushed them to sell, they said no.

儘管近些年她破舊的家周圍涌現出很多高樓大廈，但50歲的學校教師鄭瑞珍和丈夫孫國建（音譯）還在堅守。孫在那裏長大。鄭的學校騎車20分即達。他們的兒子也在這裏長大，雖然兒子現在已經長得很高，頭都會擦到狹小房間的天花板。市政官員催促他們賣房時，他們拒絕了。

Then came China’s latest property bubble — a frothy surge in prices that could have global repercussions if it pops.

然後出現了中國最新的地產泡沫——價格飛漲產生的泡沫一旦破裂，會對全世界產生影響。

In August, an unremarkable piece of land around the corner from Ms. Zheng sold for nearly $2,000 a square foot, a national record and nearly three times the average land price in Manhattan. Local officials grew more insistent and threatened to tear down their bathroom.

今年8月，鄭家附近一個很普通的地塊以每平方英尺近2000美元的價格出售，打破了全國記錄，幾乎是曼哈頓平均地價的三倍。地方官員更加急切，威脅要拆除他們家的衛生間。

Finally, they relented, and Ms. Zheng’s husband signed away the home for a price to be determined later. Then, on Oct. 9, Mr. Sun died of a heart attack, something Ms. Zheng said was perhaps influenced by stress over the pending demolition of their home.

他們最終妥協，鄭的丈夫簽字放棄這個房子，價格待定。10月9日，孫因心臟病發作去世，鄭說可能是受到住房即將被拆除的壓力影響。

Now, as she grieves, she is waiting to hear how much the Shanghai government will offer in compensation — but however much that is, she knows it will not be enough for her to be able to afford to live anywhere close to Lufeng Road.

現在，悲傷的她還在等待上海市政府的補償價格——但她知道不管補多少，都不夠她在陸豐路附近買個房子。

Said Ms. Zheng: “I never expected housing prices in Shanghai would get this high.”

鄭說：“我從沒想到上海的房價會變得這麼高。”

China is in the midst of a dizzying housing bubble. Shanghai’s average housing price is up nearly one-third from a year ago, with prices in major cities like Beijing and Guangzhou not far behind. Chinese consumers are rushing to buy homes before the government steps in with restrictions.

中國正處於令人頭暈目眩的房價泡沫之中。上海的平均房價比一年前上漲了近三分之一。北京和廣州等大城市的房價相去不遠。中國消費者正在政府介入並採取限制措施之前爭相買房。

When rumors swept through Shanghai that the government would require homeowners to pay more in taxes and down payments to buy additional properties, many couples filed for divorce so that one partner could still be treated as an independent buyer.

當上海謠傳政府將要求房主在購買額外房產時繳納更多稅款和首付款時，很多夫妻申請離婚，以便一方能夠仍被當作獨立購房者對待。

China has experienced housing booms and busts before. And fervor for real estate among the wealthiest Chinese has already spread far beyond the country’s borders, from Long Island mansions to disused ranches in Texas — many to get their money out of the country.

中國經歷過房地產繁榮和崩潰。中國最富有人羣對房地產的狂熱已蔓延至國外，從長島(Long Island)的住宅到德克薩斯州廢棄的農場——很多是爲了把錢轉移到國外。

But economists warn that the current boom on the Chinese mainland could be extra difficult to resolve: It comes with a growing amount of American-style debt.

不過經濟學家們警告稱，中國大陸目前的房價暴漲解決起來可能會特別困難：它伴隨着越來越多的美國式債務。

Long-term household loans — mostly mortgages — have doubled as a share of total official bank lending this year. They accounted for about 40 percent of all new loans in August, contrasted with just 20 percent at the start of the year. The value of new home loans as a percentage of all housing sales has surged to a record high.

今年，長期房貸——大多是抵押貸款——佔全部官方銀行貸款的比例翻了一番。今年8月，房貸佔全部新貸款的比例約爲40%，而年初僅爲20%。新房貸的價值佔全部住房銷售額的比例暴漲至歷史新高。

The loans — largely a byproduct of a flood of Chinese lending to keep the economy growing — are helping the affluent, the middle class and low earners who have dreamed of owning a home, while investors and speculators are piling in, too. Underground lenders — those who operate outside the formal banking system using a variety of new platforms — are also helping to feed the boom.

這些貸款大多是中國爲保持經濟增長而出現的貸款狂潮的副產品，它們正在幫助富人、中產階級、以及夢想擁有一套房子的低收入人羣，不過投資者和投機者也在涌入。地下放債者，也就是利用各種新平臺，在正式銀行系統之外運作的人，也助長了這次暴漲。

Last month, economists at the Bank of China warned in a report that worsening asset price bubbles were adding to a frothy market that could result in trouble. The day before, Wang Jianlin, a politically connected property and entertainment magnate who is one of the country’s richest people, told cnn that China property was “the biggest bubble in history.”

上個月，中國銀行的經濟學家在一份報告中警告稱，日益惡化的資產價格泡沫正在促進一個有泡沫的市場，可能會導致麻煩。之前一天，有政治背景的地產和娛樂業大亨、中國富豪王健林對cnn表示，中國地產是“史上最大的泡沫”。

That could be bad news for the global economy. Many economists estimate that housing and related areas — like construction, cement manufacturing or furniture making — account for roughly one-fifth of China’s economic activity. But if the bubble pops, that support could disappear quickly.

那對全球經濟可能是壞消息。很多經濟學家估計，房地產及相關領域——比如建築業、水泥生產或傢俱製造——佔中國經濟活動的約五分之一。如果這個泡沫破裂，這個支柱可能會很快消失。

Chinese officials, apparently mindful of the 2008 American housing bust, appear to be aware of the risks of a debt-fueled property bubble. But some economists worry they will be too slow to rein it in.

中國官員顯然記得美國2008年的房地產崩盤，似乎也意識到了債務高築的地產泡沫的風險。不過，有些經濟學家擔心，等他們試圖控制，可能會爲時已晚。

“The risk is that the government is late in cooling the market, the rally spreads to more areas, pushing up household leverage and construction activity, pushing the bubble bigger, which is then followed by a bigger downward correction,” said Tao Wang, the head of China economics at UBS in Hong Kong.

“風險在於，中國政府給可能太晚纔給市場降溫，房地產上漲會擴展至更多領域，推動居民負債和建設活動，催生更大的泡沫，隨後出現更大力度的下行糾正，”瑞銀集團(UBS)駐香港的首席中國經濟學家汪濤稱。

Local regulators are already trying to cool things down. In the last few weeks, local authorities have accelerated efforts to tighten housing markets in up to 20 Chinese cities, according to economists at China International Capital Corporation, an investment bank.

地方監管機構已經在努力給樓市降溫。據投資銀行中國國際金融公司的經濟學家稱，在過去幾周裏，地方當局在多達20個城市加快了收緊住房市場的行動。

But in many cases these steps have only added to the rush, as home buyers move in while they can.

不過，在很多情況下，這些行動只是助長了購房熱，因爲買家想在政策允許時趕快出手。

By her account, Zhang Xia and her husband have enjoyed a happy marriage. Then the rumor swept the city that Shanghai authorities would make it harder for couples with one home to buy more.

據張霞（音譯）稱，她和丈夫婚姻幸福。然後整個城市都在謠傳，上海市當局將增加已有一套住房的夫妻購買更多房產的難度。

On a recent Monday, Ms. Zhang, a 40-year-old resident of Shanghai’s Huangpu area, and her husband sat waiting at a local marriage registry office to file for divorce. Shanghai officials continue to deny that they will limit house buying by couples, but Ms. Zhang is among many who do not believe them.

前不久的一個週一，家住上海黃浦區的40歲的張和丈夫在當地一個婚姻登記處等待申請離婚。上海市官員繼續否認他們將限制夫妻購房，不過張和其他很多人一樣，不相信官員們的話。

“We know the government said this is a rumor, but they also said that a few times before, when the rumor actually came true,” Ms. Zhang said. “Some people even said the fact that the government said it’s a rumor means it’s going to be true.”

“我們知道政府在闢謠，但是以前他們也闢過幾次謠，後來謠言都成真了，”張說，“有些人甚至說，政府闢謠就說明肯定會發生。”

Shanghai, China’s financial capital, is at the heart of the property boom. Demand there is so intense that developers now commonly require sizable deposits of cash just to join a lottery to buy a new apartment. Only holders of winning numbers will be offered the chance to buy a unit. One flashy new development in central Shanghai charges a refundable 200,000 renminbi, or $30,000, to enter its lottery.

中國的金融中心上海處於這次地產暴漲的中心。這裏的需求非常旺盛，現在開發商通常要求購房者支付一大筆現金訂金，才能參與搖號，購買新房。只有搖到號的人才有機會買一套房。上海市中心一個奢華的新樓盤要求購房者支付可退還的20萬人民幣訂金才能參與搖號。

“In Shanghai now,” said Wang Jie, a sales manager there, “it’s not like you can buy an apartment just because you have money.”

“現在在上海，”當地的一名銷售經理王傑（音）稱，“不是有錢就能買到房。”

Back on Lufeng Road, the recently widowed Ms. Zheng and her neighbors try to go about their lives despite the boom going on around them. Men and women play mah-jongg near a half-demolished house, one of a number of dwellings along the road in various states of disassembly, like a row of rotting teeth. Stray dogs sunbathe and alley cats hunt around piles of red bricks and wooden beams scattered on the street.

在陸豐路，新近喪偶的鄭和鄰居們努力繼續自己的生活，儘管周圍的地產在暴漲。男人和女人們在一所被拆了一半的房子附近打麻將。沿路還有很多住宅，處於不同的拆除階段，就像一排腐壞的牙齒。流浪狗在曬太陽，野貓在一堆堆紅磚周圍覓食，木樑散落在街上。

In recent months, local officials hung red propaganda banners on people’s housing extolling the benefits of selling out. “No more hesitation means no more disappointment,” reads one. Says another: “Requisition and compensation are lawful. Smart alecks will regret it later.”

近幾個月，當地官員在人們的房子上掛起紅幅，宣傳賣房的益處。“不要再猶豫，不會再失望，”其中一道紅幅上寫道。另一道上寫着：“徵收政策有法度，自作聰明後悔遲。”

“Look at those banners,” Ms. Zheng said, shaking her head. “It’s almost like the Cultural Revolution once again.”

“看看那些紅幅，”鄭搖着頭說，“就像文革又來了。”

Earlier, local officials told Ms. Zheng that the land where her home stands would be used to build supporting facilities for the next-door complex of high-rises built by China Vanke, the country’s largest property developer.

之前，當地官員對鄭說，她家所在的那塊地將被用於爲旁邊的高樓羣建配套設施。那些樓是中國最大的地產開發商萬科建造的。

“They said that when people who live in the high-rises in Vanke look down, the view from their windows is our ugly roofs,” she said. “So they have to get rid of us.”

“他們說，住在萬科高樓上的人往下看，看到的就是我們這些難看的屋頂，”她說，“所以他們必須把我們趕走。”