美聯儲加息可能引發股市崩盤

The US Federal Reserve risks causing a 1937-style stock market slump when it finally moves to raise interest rates, one of the world’s most powerful hedge fund managers has warned.

全球影響力最大的對衝基金經理之一警告稱，當美聯儲(Fed)最終採取加息舉動時，可能引發類似於1937年的股市大跌。

Ray Dalio, founder of the $165bn hedge fund group Bridgewater Associates, said in a note to clients and followers that he is avoiding large bets on the financial markets for fear that the Fed’s expected change of policy could have dramatic unintended consequences.

資產規模達到1650億美元的對衝基金集團Bridgewater的創始人雷•戴利奧(Ray Dalio)在一份寫給客戶與追隨者的備忘錄中表示，他正避免對金融市場大筆押注，原因是擔心意料之中的美聯儲政策轉變可能帶來戲劇性的意外後果。

The note emerged as Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, warned that US rate increases could trigger instability in emerging markets, leading to a re-run of the Fed-induced “taper tantrum” of 2013. The comments frame a high-stakes Fed meeting at which the central bank’s policy makers are expected to open the door to the first US rate hikes in nearly a decade.

與此同時，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)警告稱，美國加息可能引發新興市場的不穩定，致使2013年美聯儲誘發的“縮減恐慌”(taper tantrum)再度上演。這些言論框定了事關重大的一次美聯儲會議，預計這家央行的政策制定者將在會上爲美國近10年來的首次加息鋪平道路。

The Fed is today expected to remove pledges to be “patient” before lifting rates when it concludes two days of deliberations. Market expectations are for it to raise rates either in June or September, but the soaring value of the dollar and a spate of soft economic indicators have muddied the waters going into the meeting.

在結束爲期兩天的商議後，預計美聯儲將在今日摒棄在加息之前保持“耐心”的承諾。市場對美聯儲加息的預期時間爲6月或9月，但是美元飆升及一連串疲軟的經濟指標攪渾了本次會議的政策制定背景。

In Mr Dalio’s note, whose stark tone has led it to be widely circulated around the industry, he and his co-authors urge the Fed to proceed with caution and to set out a public plan B, in case monetary tightening goes wrong.

戴利奧直白的語氣使備忘錄在行業內廣爲流傳。在備忘錄中，戴利奧及其聯名作者敦促美聯儲謹慎行事，並制定公開的B計劃，以防貨幣政策收緊引發問題。

“We don’t know — nor does the Fed know — exactly how much tightening will knock over the apple cart,” Mr Dalio and Mark Dinner, his colleague, wrote.

“我們並不確切地瞭解——美聯儲也不瞭解——多大力度的收緊會打翻‘蘋果車’，”戴利奧及其同事馬克•迪內(Mark Dinner)寫道。

“What we do hope the Fed knows, which we don’t know, is how exactly it will fix things if it knocks it over. We hope that they know that before they make a move that could knock over the apple cart. We are cautious about our exposures. For the reasons explained, we do not want to have any concentrated bets, especially at this time.”

“我們希望美聯儲知道（我們肯定不知道），如果打翻了蘋果車它究竟將如何糾正問題。我們希望他們在做出可能打翻蘋果車的舉動之前知道這一點。我們對自己的風險敞口很謹慎。出於以上解釋的原因，我們不想進行任何集中押注，特別是在當前情況下。”

The note likens financial conditions today to those in 1937, eight years after the 1929 stock market crisis and at the end of four years of money printing that had led to surge in equity valuations. Premature tightening by the Fed led to a one-third slump in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1937 and the sell-off continued into the following year.

備忘錄把眼下的金融狀況與1937年的情況相提並論，當時是1929年股市危機後的第8年，也是導致股票估值激增的4年印鈔政策結束之時。美聯儲過早收緊導致道瓊斯工業平均指數(Dow Jones Industrial Average)在1937年下跌1/3，股市拋售持續至次年。

Today, many analysts fear the knock-on effect of any Fed tightening, particularly on emerging markets, especially when combined with a strong dollar. Although Bridgewater’s investment style is heavily computer driven, Mr Dalio’s investment commentary has long been valued by investors. His Pure Alpha fund, with over $80bn in assets, is among the top performing funds of all time, according to a 2014 survey from LCH Investments.

如今，很多分析師擔心美聯儲的任何政策收緊將會帶來連鎖效應，尤其是對新興市場，特別是加上美元走強的影響。儘管Bridgewater的投資風格嚴重依賴於計算機，但戴利奧的投資評論長期受到投資者重視。LCH Investments 2014年的一項調查顯示，戴利奧的Pure Alpha基金（資產規模超過800億美元）躋身於歷來表現最好的基金之列。