美聯儲本月加息信號漸強

Mounting evidence that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month has given investors new confidence in the strength of the US economy, sending Wall Street to record highs yesterday in a broad-based rally that buoyed markets around the world.

越來越多證據表明美聯儲(Federal Reserve)將在本月加息，這給投資者帶來對美國經濟強勁程度的新信心。昨日美國金融市場普遍大漲，股指紛紛創下新高，且帶動了世界各地的市場。

The spike in equities was led by banks, which will directly benefit from higher rates by improving margins on their lending. But there were gains across the board, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 — a gauge of small-cap companies — all reaching new intraday highs.

銀行類股票領跑股市漲勢，因爲較高的利率將提升放貸利潤率，讓銀行直接受益。但所有板塊的股票都出現上漲，標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)、道瓊斯工業平均指數(Dow Jones Industrial Average)、納斯達克綜合指數(Nasdaq Composite)以及羅素2000指數（Russell 2000，小盤股公司指數）均錄得新的盤中高點。

“The Fed is willing to be on top of things and has greater confidence in the economy,” said Jerry Lucas, a senior strategist at UBS Wealth Management.

“美聯儲希望抓住主動權，而且對經濟有更大信心，”瑞銀財富管理(UBS Wealth Management)高級策略師傑瑞?盧卡斯(Jerry Lucas)表示。

Stocks charged higher despite disappointment among analysts that Donald Trump had failed in his first address to Congress on Tuesday night to provide more details on his plans to stimulate the US economy and cut regulation.

此輪股市大漲是在分析師們對唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)首次對國會發表講話感到失望的背景下出現的，美國總統在週二晚的講話中沒有更具體地說明他計劃如何刺激美國經濟和減少監管。

But the market’s willingness to focus on the more constructive tone of the speech underlined the fact that there is more to the global rally in equities than mere optimism about the president’s ambitions to cut corporate taxes and create jobs by investing in American infrastructure projects.

但是市場願意專注於這次講話比較建設性的基調，這說明支撐全球股市上漲的不僅僅是對美國總統的雄心的樂觀情緒；特朗普有意削減公司稅，並通過投資於美國基礎設施項目來創造就業機會。

Investors said they were focused on recent remarks by Fed policymakers indicating they were prepared to raise rates at their meeting on March 14-15 regardless of Mr Trump’s budget plans. Previously, the Fed’s Open Market Committee said that details of White House intentions would play a central role in its rate decision.

投資者們表示，他們關注美聯儲政策制定者最近的言論，按照這些言論，無論特朗普的預算計劃如何，他們都準備在3月14-15日的會議上調高利率。之前美聯儲的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)曾表示，白宮意圖的細節將在其利率決策中扮演核心角色。

Markets were particularly influenced by William Dudley, New York Fed president and an ally of chair Janet Yellen, who said that the case for raising rates had become “a lot more compelling”.

市場尤其受紐約聯儲(New York Fed)行長、美聯儲主席珍妮特?耶倫(Janet Yellen)的盟友威廉?達德利(William Dudley)的影響，他說，加息理由已變得“更有說服力”。

“The [Fed] was adamant that March was live and the market wasn’t listening to them,” said Ashish Shah, head of fixed income at AllianceBernstein. “Now the market is listening.”

“美聯儲曾堅定表示3月會議有可能加息，但市場不肯聽，”安聯伯恩斯坦(AllianceBernstein)固定收益產品部門主管阿希什?沙阿(Ashish Shah)表示。“現在市場在聽了。”

Investor appetite was also piqued by better-than-expected European and US manufacturing surveys. Global data are eclipsing forecasts by the most since 2010, according to Citigroup.

投資者的胃口也受到歐洲和美國製造業調查結果好於預期的刺激。據花旗集團(Citigroup)介紹，全球數據以2010年以來最大幅度超出預測。

Traders now put the odds of a quarter-point rate rise in two weeks at more than 80 per cent, up from 34 per cent last week.

交易員們現在認爲兩週後加息四分之一點的機率在80%以上，遠高於上週的34%。

JJ Kinahan of TD Ameritrade said: “A rate hike now is viewed as a vote of confidence in the economy.” In the past, hikes were seen as likely to “derail” the market, he added.

TD Ameritrade的JJ?基納漢(JJ Kinahan)表示：“現在加息將被視爲對美國經濟投下信心票。”他補充說，前一階段加息曾被認爲可能“搞砸”市場。

Investors were disappointed by Mr Trump’s lack of substance but the non-confrontational nature of the address boosted confidence that he can push through his pro-business agenda.

投資者對特朗普的講話缺乏實質內容感到失望，但此次講話的非對抗性質提振了各方對美國總統能夠推進其親商議程的信心。