美聯儲發出近期加息信號

A number of the Federal Reserve’s policymakers signalled in their latest meeting that they were preparing to lift rates again, even as a divided body of US rate-setters continued to agonise about the risks posed by persistently soggy inflation.

美聯儲(Fed)多名政策制定者在最近一次會議上表示，他們準備再次加息，儘管意見分歧的美國利率制定者仍然擔心持續低迷的通脹所構成的風險。

Faced with above-trend growth and a labour market that was operating at or beyond full employment, many Fed policymakers said in their October 31 to November 1 meeting that another increase in the Fed’s target range would probably be needed “in the near term” if the economy stays on track.

面對高於趨勢線的增長以及達到甚至超過充分就業水平的勞動力市場，美聯儲的多名政策制定者在10月31日至11月1日的會議上表示，如果美國經濟繼續保持這樣的軌跡，美聯儲的利率目標區間可能需要“在短期內”再次提升。

However that was not the unanimous view, and minutes to the latest meeting revealed a central bank that is still struggling to get to grips with the implications of sub-target inflation. Many policymakers warned inflation may remain below target for longer than they had expected, as they flagged up the risk of persistent drags on price growth. A number said they were worried a fall in longer-term inflation expectations could make it harder to return inflation to target.

然而，這並非美聯儲內部一致的觀點，最近一次會議的紀要顯示，美國央行仍在艱難判斷低於目標的通脹的潛在影響。多名政策制定者警告稱，通脹低於目標水平的時間可能比他們之前預期的更久，他們指出了持續拖累物價上漲的風險。一些政策制定者表示，他們擔心較長期通脹預期的下降，可能會讓通脹更難迴歸目標水平。

Weighing into the debate over further rate rises is the risk that the long spell of low interest rates could stoke up excesses in financial markets. Several participants in the latest meeting flagged up worries about the issue, expressing concerns about “a potential build-up of financial imbalances”.

長期低利率可能助長金融市場過分行爲的風險，也影響着圍繞進一步加息的辯論。最近一次會議的幾名與會者提出了對這一問題的擔憂，他們對“金融失衡的潛在積累”表示關切。

Gold and Treasury prices slightly extended their gains following the release of the minutes, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which moves inversely to prices, at 2.3294 per cent from the 2.3347 per cent it stood at before their publication. US stocks were little changed.

在會議紀要公佈後，金價和國債價格略微擴大了漲幅，10年期國債收益率——與價格運行方向相反——從紀要公佈前的2.3347%降至2.3294%。美國股市基本未受影響。