美聯儲維持利率不變 增大年底加息可能
A heavily divided Federal Reserve left short-term interest rates unchanged yesterday but said the case for a rate increase had strengthened, in a strong signal that a move is likely before the end of the year.
分歧嚴重的美聯儲(Fed)昨日維持短期利率不變，但表示加息理由增強，這是一個強烈信號，暗示美聯儲可能在今年年底前加息。
Three of the US central bank’s 10 policymakers voted for an immediate rise. But the Fed said that for the time being it wanted to keep policy on hold as it waits for further evidence of progress towards its objectives. It left the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent.
在美聯儲10位政策制定者中，有3人投票支持立即加息。但美聯儲表示，目前希望維持政策不變，等待數據向其目標接近的進一步證據。美聯儲將聯邦基金目標利率設在0.25%至0.5%之間。
The opposition was a notable departure given Fed chair Janet Yellen’s previous efforts to keep dissent to a minimum, underscoring the intensity of the current policy debate the US central bank.
鑑於美聯儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)此前曾努力將反對意見降至最低，反對的強度引人關注，突顯出美聯儲當前政策辯論的激烈性。
“The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened, but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives,” the Federal Open Market Committee said. It added that the risks to the outlook were “roughly balanced” — a further signal that a move could come by the end of 2016.
聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)表示：“委員會認爲，上調聯邦基金利率的理由已增強，但目前決定等待數據向其目標繼續接近的進一步證據。”該委員會補充稱，經濟前景風險“大體平衡”，這進一步表明今年年底前可能會加息。
The Fed has been blowing hot and cold on the prospects of a second rate move this year after being stung by rocky financial market movements after its increase last December. Overseas hazards have tended to be the cause of delay, among them uncertainties over Chinese foreign exchange policies and the UK’s vote to leave the EU.
美聯儲在去年12月加息之後被金融市場的動盪嚇住，因此今年以來一直對第二次加息前景搖擺不定。海外風險往往是推遲加息的原因，其中包括圍繞中國外匯政策的不確定性以及英國公投退出歐盟。
The Fed’s decision was particularly highly charged given the political context. The US faces a highly consequential presidential election in less than two months’ time. Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, has repeatedly attacked the Fed for keeping rates low, claiming this was at the behest of President Barack Obama.
考慮到當前的政治環境，美聯儲的決定尤其具有高度的政治色彩。美國還有不到兩個月的時間就會舉行事關重大的總統選舉。共和黨總統候選人唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)屢次抨擊美聯儲保持低利率的決定，宣稱這是聽命於巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統行事。
The Fed’s next meeting is just days before the November 8 election, making it a difficult moment to change policy. Its final meeting is on December 13-14.
美聯儲的下一次會議在11月8日大選前幾天舉行，這讓它很難調整政策。美聯儲今年最後一次會議在12月13日至14日舉行。
The decision to hold rates marks another chapter in the most glacial rate-raising cycle in recent times, underscoring the disappointing economic recovery since the financial crash.
保持利率不變的決定標誌着近年最緩慢的加息週期進入新的一章，突顯出自金融危機以來經濟復甦令人失望。
