股民長線投資求安全不能只投美股
If you think U.S. stocks are 'safer' than those in foreign countries, you may want to reconsider.
如果你覺得美國股票比其他國家股票“安全”，或許你該重新想一想了。Research shows that the safest investment portfolio--one with the highest potential return and the lowest risk--is likely to be heavier on international stocks and lighter on U.S. stocks.
研究表明，最安全（潛在回報最高、風險最低）的投資組合可能是輕倉持有美國股票，重倉持有其他國家股票。Yes, many international stock markets, especially in emerging markets such as Russia and Brazil, have been in turmoil lately. And yes, over the past couple of years, the U.S. stock market has been a great place to be. But short-term performance is a poor basis for long-term investment. The long-term story suggests something quite different.
沒錯，很多國際股票市場最近經歷了動盪，特別是俄羅斯和巴西等新興市場的股市。同樣沒錯的是，過去幾年美國股市是一個不錯的投資點。但短期表現不太適合當作長線投資的依據。股市的長期表現給人的是相當不同的啓示。
Periodic Rebalancing
定期再平衡I have lately been on a quest for the perfect 'all weather' investment portfolio, one that needs no more than periodic rebalancing. I accepted that, in addition to assets such as bonds and inflation-protected securities, a big part of that portfolio should be invested in stocks. But then I asked myself: Which stocks? Which markets?
最近我一直在追尋完美的“全天候”投資組合，這種投資組合只需要定期做一下再平衡就可以了。我承認，除了債券和通脹保值證券等資產之外，相當大一部分資金應當投資於股票。不過我又問自己：投哪些股票？投哪些市場的股票呢？I found myself reading research conducted separately by two investment managers, Joachim Klement, chief investment officer at Wellershoff & Partners, an investment consultancy in Zurich with $10 billion in funds under advisement, and Mebane Faber, CIO at Cambria Investment Management in El Segundo, Calif., which manages $335 million.
我讀到了兩名投資經理分別進行的研究。他們是蘇黎世投資顧問公司Wellershoff &Partners（管理資產規模100億美元）的首席投資長喬吉姆·克萊門特(Joachim Klement)，以及加州埃爾塞貢多(El Segundo)投資管理公司Cambria Investment Management（管理資產規模3.35億美元）的首席投資長梅班·費伯(Mebane Faber)。Both men looked at the performance of more than 30 different stock markets around the world over long periods.
兩人都考察了全世界30多個不同股市的長期表現。Among their findings: First, no stock market provided the best return in all periods. On the contrary, the markets of different countries and different regions tended to fare better at different times. (So, for example, Japan did better in the 1980s, the U.S. in the 1990s and emerging markets after 2000.)
他們的發現包括：首先，沒有哪個股市在所有時期的回報率都是最高的。相反，不同國家和不同地區的市場往往是在不同的時期有較好的表現。（比如日本表現較好的時候是在80年代，美國是在90年代，新興市場是在2000年過後。）Second, performance in the past has depended to a substantial degree on starting valuations. You generally did best by investing in the stock markets that were cheapest in relation to corporate fundamentals such as earnings and net assets--and you generally did worst by investing in those markets which were expensive on those measures.
其次，過去的表現在很大程度上取決於初始估值。投資那些相對於利潤和 資產等公司基本面估值最低的股市，總體上表現最好；投資從這些指標看顯得很昂貴的市場，總體上表現最差。Which markets are cheap, and which are expensive, has varied over time, and the performance gaps have been substantial. Over five years or so, those who invested in stock markets when they were very expensive were lucky to break even after counting inflation. But those who invested in markets when they were very cheap often racked up double-digit returns for many years.
哪些市場便宜、哪些市場昂貴，會隨着時間的變化而變化，而且投資業績的差距也是相當大的。在股市非常昂貴的時候投資的人，經過五年左右的時間後，扣除通脹因素，能夠不虧不賺就算幸運了。但在股市非常便宜的時候投資的人常常能夠多年獲得雙位數的回報。This has enormous implications for investors. Far from being safe by sticking to their home market, they would do better to focus on the least-expensive markets and avoid the most expensive.
這對投資者來說有着豐富的含義。他們最好是拋棄堅守本土市場以求安全的辦法，側重於估值最低的市場，避開估值最高的市場。Taken to extremes, this would mean that today one would invest large amounts in stock markets such as those of Russia, Turkey, Austria, Greece and Indonesia, as they are inexpensive, and very little here in the U.S., which is comparatively expensive on many measures.
極端地說，這意味着如今投資者應當大額投資俄羅斯、土耳其、澳大利亞、希臘和印度尼西亞等估值低的市場，非常少量地投資於美國市場，因爲從很多指標來看，美國市場都顯得相對昂貴。It would be a bold investor who took such a gamble. (I wouldn't.) But there are other, less alarming ways of taking advantage of this research.
如此下注的人是勇敢的投資者。（我不會如此下注。）但利用這一研究獲利還有其他一些不那麼會讓人心慌的方法。A Balanced Approach
均衡方針One can benefit simply by managing a balanced global portfolio and then adjusting it roughly annually--selling a little of whatever has done best, and buying a little of whatever has done worst--to maintain roughly equal allocations.
獲利的方法可以很簡單，即維持一個均衡的全球性投資組合，然後大概每年調整一次，也就是賣掉一點表現最好的，買進一些表現最差的，從而使各類配置保持大致均等。In the past, this strategy would have smoothed returns over time. For example, U.S. investors would have benefited from the stronger performance of European and Asian markets in the 1970s and 1980s, and of emerging markets after 2000.
在過去，這樣的策略在經過一定時間過後將會獲得平穩的回報。比如美國投資者會因此而受益於70年代至80年代歐亞市場、2000年過後新興市場的較佳表現。A portfolio invested equally in the MSCI U.S., European and Pacific indexes, and rebalanced once a year, would have saved U.S. investors from the calamitous slump on Wall Street from 1969 through 1982. Balancing between the U.S., developed markets and emerging markets would have helped them after 2000.
平均投資於摩根士丹利資本國際(MSCI)美國、歐洲和太平洋指數並每年做一次再平衡的投資組合，會使美國投資者躲過從1969年到1982年的華爾街股災。2000年過後，均衡投資於美國市場、發達國家市場和新興國家市場會給他們帶來好處。On both occasions, those who stuck solely to U.S. stocks ended up losing purchasing power over many years.
在上面兩種情況下，堅持只投資美股的投資者經過多年之後都失去了購買力。Alas, investing this way is a little harder than you might expect. Most 'global' stock funds are heavily weighted toward stocks, and markets, with the highest values.
可惜如此投資可能要比你想象的難一點。大多數“全球型”股票基金都重倉持有估值最高的股票和股市。Today a typical global stock fund has about half its money in U.S. stocks and less than 10% in emerging markets. Such funds invest more in a few giant stocks--such as Apple, Google and Microsoft--than they do in most countries. And they won't automatically rebalance in the way one would like. On the contrary, as stock or market X keeps rising, it just becomes a bigger and bigger share of the index.
今天一隻典型的全球型股票基金一半左右的資金都是投資於美股，只有不到10%投資於新興市場。這類基金對幾隻巨盤股（如蘋果(Apple)、谷歌(Google)和微軟(Microsoft)）的投資超過了對大多數國家的投資。而且它們不會像你希望的那樣自動進行再平衡。相反，當某隻股票或某個股市不斷上漲的時候，它在投資組合中的比例只會越來越大。What are the alternatives? One could randomly pick, say, 50 stocks from around the world, and invest in them equally. Or one could use exchange-traded funds to invest in five or 10 national markets with (one hopes) low correlations--from Japan to the Middle East, Latin America to Europe. With online stock trades just $8 apiece, these could be reasonably low-cost options.
有何替代途徑？可以從全世界隨機挑選一些股票，比如說是50只，然後平均投資於這些股票。也可以利用交易所交易基金投資五個或10個相關性低（但願吧）的國別市場，從日本到中東，從拉丁美洲到歐洲都可以。在網上股票交易八美元一筆的情況下，這些都可能是成本還算低廉的選擇。Mr. Klement says for those who want to keep things simple, his firm often recommends investing equal amounts in low-cost funds tracking five major indexes: the S&P 500, London's FTSE 100 index, Europe's EuroStoxx 50, Japan's Nikkei 225 and the MSCI Emerging Markets index.
克萊門特說，對於不想把問題複雜化的投資者，他的公司常常建議等額投資於跟蹤五大股指且費用低廉的基金。這五大股指分別是倫敦的富時100指數(FTSE 100)，歐洲的歐元區斯托克50指數(EuroStoxx 50)，日本的日經225指數(Nikkei 225)，以及摩根士丹利資本國際新興市場指數(MSCI Emerging Markets)。This portfolio, rebalanced periodically, 'beats a traditional portfolio by a significant margin over time, ' he says.
他說，這樣一個投資組合經過定期再平衡，“一定時間過後的表現明顯超出傳統投資組合”。For example, according to MSCI data, from Dec. 31, 1999, through Dec. 31, 2013, this strategy would have produced investment gains of about 70%, compared with less than 50% for U.S. stocks alone.
比如從MSCI數據來看，從1999年12月31日到2013年12月31日，這條策略的投資回報約爲70%，相比之下僅投美股的回報率不到50%。
