新興市場仍受私人股本投資者青睞
On Friday evening in Davos, Paul Kagame, Nouriel Roubini and Carlos Ghosn discussed the next steps for emerging markets. Do you want to know what their predictions were?
上週五晚，保羅•卡加梅(Paul Kagame)、魯裏埃爾•魯比尼(Nouriel Roubini)和卡洛斯•戈恩(Carlos Ghosn)在達沃斯(Davos)討論了新興市場的前景。你想知道他們的預測結果嗎？EM private equity investors don’t. “We don’t get our EM news here from public debates,” says Paul Fletcher, from PE firm Actis, at Davos. His colleague and former employee Sev Settivetpillai agrees: “You need to be on the ground yourself to understand what’s happening.”
新興市場私人股本的投資者不想。私人股本公司英聯投資(Actis)的保羅•弗萊徹(Paul Fletcher)說：“我們不會從公共辯論中獲取有關新興市場的消息。”他的同事、前員工塞夫•維蒂維特皮萊(Sev Vettivetpillai)認同這一點：“你必須置身新興市場，才能瞭解那裏正在發生的事情。”However, they didn’t mind sharing their view on EMs.
然而，他們不介意分享自己對於新興市場的觀點。
“There are many headlines about the Brics, but the more interesting markets are often outside of this bloc, and they often have better governments” says Sev Settivetpillai of Abraaj, which has $7.5bn in assets under management across EMs.
現供職於Abraaj資本的塞夫•維蒂維特皮萊說：“媒體頭條裏有好多金磚國家(Brics)的消息，但更令人感興趣的市場往往是其他國家，那些國家的政府通常治理水平更高。”Abraaj資本管理的新興市場資產總額爲75億美元。Rather than using GDP growth as indicator, he prefers to look at the regions where sustained growth might come from consumption, and which from infrastructure. In that regard, two groups of countries are now interesting. One is the Pacific Alliance, which includes Chile, Peru, Colombia, and Mexico. The other is sub-Saharan Africa, most importantly Ghana, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Mozambique and Nigeria.
他不願意使用國內生產總值(GDP)增長率作爲指標，而關注由消費或基礎設施領域推動經濟可持續增長的地區。按此標準，目前有兩組國家引人注目。一是太平洋聯盟(Pacific Alliance)，包括智利、祕魯、哥倫比亞和墨西哥。二是撒哈拉以南非洲地區，最重要的是加納、烏干達、坦桑尼亞、肯尼亞、莫桑比克和尼日利亞。Both have either developed a decent infrastructure, or have the resources to fund such projects – which are interesting in themselves for PE. And because of their steady income from natural resources, they have a growing middle class.
這兩組國家要麼已建立起相當完善的基礎設施，要麼有財力開展基建項目，這兩點正是令私人股本公司感興趣的。另外，由於自然資源提供了穩定的收入，這些國家的中產階層正不斷壯大。“The PA has a GDP size equal to that of Brazil, but its growth is double, and its infrastructure is ahead of that of other countries in the region,” Vettivetpillai comments. “In addition, the share of consumption in this GDP growth is 60 per cent. It’s the highest of the EMs I work in, and I expect it continue.”
“太平洋聯盟的GDP總量與巴西相當，但增速是巴西的兩倍，而且基礎設施水平也領先於地區其他國家，”維蒂維特皮萊評論稱，“此外，消費對其GDP增長的貢獻率達到了60%，是我開展業務的新興市場國家中最高的，並且我預計這個比例會保持下去。”In sub-Saharan Africa, he sees a two-tier consumption story: the upper class on the one hand, and the emerging lower middle class, “which is four times bigger”. These consumer groups ensure that consumption will continue to account for 50 per cent of GDP growth in those countries.
在撒哈拉以南非洲地區，他認爲消費羣體分兩個層次：上層羣體和不斷壯大的下層中產階層，“後者是前者人數的四倍”。這些消費羣體可以保證，在這些國家裏，消費對GDP增長的貢獻率將繼續維持在50%。Behind the curve is China. The Chinese investment vs consumption led growth question is well known. In China, according to Vettivetpillai, consumption accounts for only 35 per cent to 38 per cent of GDP growth, and infrastructure for close to 50 per cent.
相比之下，中國已落後。中國經濟增長中投資和消費貢獻率的對比問題，已是衆所周知。維蒂維特皮萊表示，消費對中國GDP增長的貢獻率僅爲35%至38%，基礎設施的貢獻率接近50%。Yet China remains a draw for PE investors, says Fletcher. “The environment in the market place in China will be at least as positive if not more,” he says. The reason? “We’re long term investors. Cyclical events, or the lack of them, matter more than immediate GDP or consumption growth.”
但弗萊徹表示，中國仍是私人股本投資者的關注重點之一。他說：“中國的市場環境即便不比其他國家更好，起碼也將毫不遜色。”原因何在？“我們是長線投資者。週期性事件發生與否比當前的GDP增幅或消費增幅更重要。”That is good news for China, which has a long term vision and the means to implement it, but bad news for India and Brazil, who seem to have a lack of exactly that long term perspective and stability. “I’m neutral about India, wanting to be positive,” says Fletcher, whose Actis has a long history in India. “And I’m cautious on Brazil.”
這對中國來說是好消息，中國製定了長期願景，並具備實現願景的手段。這對印度和巴西是壞消息，它們似乎恰恰缺乏長期視角和穩定性。弗萊徹說：“我對印度既不樂觀也不悲觀，希望能夠樂觀起來。我對巴西持謹慎態度。”It shows that the “slowdown of emerging markets” predicted for next year, is nothing more than some “background information” for PE investors. “GDP growth figures are tailwinds, they add to your thesis,” says Vettivetpillai. “You don’t base your investments on GDP growth,” confirms Fletcher. “You can do good investments in low growth countries.”
這表明，“新興市場預計明年增長將放緩”的預測給私人股本投資者提供的不過是“背景信息”而已。維蒂維特皮萊說：“GDP增長率數字只是錦上添花，可以加強投資依據。”弗萊徹也強調：“我們不會把投資決策建立在GDP增長率上，我們在增長率低的國家也可以進行回報豐厚的投資。”In that regard, poor performance of certain EMs can even be good news for the EM PE investors. The weak South African rand, for example, makes it less expensive to buy SA companies. “We’re a bit like Warren Buffett,” says Fletcher. “We like to buy low. But of course, unlike Buffett, we do sell after a while.”
從這方面講，某些新興市場國家的糟糕表現，對新興市場私人股本投資者來說甚至可能是利好。比如，南非蘭特匯率疲軟，就使得收購南非企業的代價降低。弗萊徹說：“我們有點兒像沃倫•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)。我們喜歡逢低買入。但當然，我也不同於巴菲特，我們持有一段時間之後就會賣出。”
