債臺高築 中國城市轉尋私人投資

HONG KONG — The wide new boulevards that cut across parts of Weifang in eastern China are largely free of traffic, a quiet reminder of the coastal city’s big ambitions.

香港——這條簇新的大馬路徑直穿過中國東部城市濰坊，基本上沒什麼車，無聲地彰顯着這個沿海城市的雄心壯志。

“It’s empty here, and I always come here to dry my wheat,” said a 77-year-old farmer surnamed Zhang who, along with his wife and son, was spreading grain on a sidewalk in one of the city’s newer districts on a recent summer day.

“這裏很空，我一直到這兒曬麥子，”77歲的農民張某說。最近的一個夏日，他和妻子、兒子在該市新區的人行道上鋪散麥粒。

Weifang is quickly outgrowing its rural roots, and officials see a wave of urbanization reshaping the local economy for years to come. Across the city, plans are underway for billions of dollars of major public projects, including new highways, high-speed rail lines, water treatment plants, schools and health care facilities.

濰坊正在迅速改變它的農村性質，官員們認爲城鎮化浪潮將在未來幾年改變當地經濟。全市各地正在開展價值數十億美元的大型公共項目，比如新公路、高速鐵路、自來水處理廠、學校及衛生設施。

There is just one hitch: Weifang can’t pay for all the projects.

他們只有一個難題：濰坊無力承擔所有項目的費用。

In the past, city officials would have turned to low-cost loans from state-owned banks, as the national government encouraged local spending to spur economic growth. But the Chinese leadership, worried about the country’s ballooning debt problem, is backing away from that strategy.

過去，市政府官員會通過國有銀行獲得低成本貸款，因爲中央政府鼓勵地方政府加大開支刺激經濟增長。但中國領導層擔心不斷膨脹的債務問題，正在撤銷這一策略。

Like hundreds of cities across China, Weifang is now wooing deep-pocketed private investors, both local and overseas, to help foot the bill for public infrastructure and services. Behind the spot where Mr. Zhang dries his wheat, a gleaming new hospital dominates the skyline, built in part with outside capital.

與全國數以百計的城市一樣，濰坊正在努力吸引本地及海外財力雄厚的私人投資者，幫助政府支付建造公共基礎設施和開展服務項目的費用。在張某的曬穀場後面聳立着一棟嶄新的醫院大樓，修建這棟參天大樓的資金部分來自外部。

“If the project suits the public-private partnership model, we will try to fund it that way,” said Liu Xitian, the deputy director of Weifang’s finance bureau. “The next step will be to improve public services. We will release lots of projects in that area.”

“適合搞PPP（public-private partnership model，公共私營合作模式——編者注）的我們就會通過PPP這種方式來融資，”濰坊市財政局副局長劉錫田說。“下一步就是提升公共服務，[展開]提升性的服務項目，下一步會有很多項目推出。”

The push reflects the precarious financial state of many cities and towns.

這種行動反映了很多城鎮不穩定的財務狀況。

Although the country escaped the worst of the global financial crisis six years ago, it did so on the back of a borrowing binge by local governments, which spent heavily on new but often unprofitable infrastructure projects. Now, many local governments are mired in debt.

雖然中國在六年前避開了最爲嚴重的全球金融危機，但當時是靠地方政府大量借貸，用於修建全新但通常無利可圖的基礎設施。如今，很多地方政府深陷債務泥潭。

In Weifang, a city known for seafood processing and an annual kite-flying festival, rapid urbanization over the last decade has saddled the local government with debts totaling 88.4 billion renminbi, or $14.2 billion, as of June 2013, the most recent data available.

在濰坊這個以海鮮加工和一年一度的風箏節而聞名的城市，過去十年快速的城鎮化進程給當地政府帶來了大量債務，截至2013年6月，濰坊政府的總債務爲884億元人民幣，這是可以獲得的最新數據。

Since 2007, China’s overall local government debt has risen at an annual rate of 27 percent. It now totals almost $3 trillion, according to estimates from the consulting firm McKinsey & Company.

自2007年以來，中國地方政府總債務的年增長率達到了27%。根據諮詢公司麥肯錫(McKinsey & Company)的估計，地方政府債務總額目前接近三萬億美元（約合18.6萬億元人民幣）。

Companies, too, have gorged on cheap credit in recent years. Altogether, China’s total debt stands at 282 percent of its gross domestic product — a high level that raises the risk of a financial crisis should borrowers prove unable to repay and a wave of defaults ensue.

公司近些年來也獲得大量低息貸款。中國的總債務是國內生產總值的282％，如此高的債務水平，一旦借款人最終無法償還貸款，可能引發金融危機和違約浪潮。

It has created a conundrum for the country. China’s leaders want to wean the country from this debt-fueled growth model. But they also need to continue stimulating the economy, particularly at a time when growth is slowing.

這給中國帶來了一個難題。中國領導人希望中國擺脫這種依賴債務推動經濟增長的模式。但他們還需要繼續刺激經濟發展，特別是在增長放緩的時期。

Part of Beijing’s solution has been to help local governments lower their borrowing costs through refinancing. Local government-controlled companies that are struggling to pay bonds are being encouraged to exchange them for new loans at lower interest rates from state-run banks. China’s Ministry of Finance recently expanded this local government debt refinancing program to 3 trillion renminbi, or nearly $500 billion, up from 1 trillion renminbi just a few months ago.

北京的部分解決方案是通過再次融資幫助地方政府降低借貸成本。由地方政府控制的難以償還債券的公司被鼓勵以債券作爲交換條件，獲得國有銀行提供的利率較低的新貸款。中國財政部最近將地方政府債務再融資計劃的規模增加至三萬億元人民幣，而幾個月前這一計劃的規模只有一萬億元人民幣。

China has also begun a national campaign to encourage private investment in local infrastructure projects.

中國還開始在全國鼓勵私人投資地方基礎設施項目。

In May, the nation’s top economic planning agency released a list of more than 1,000 projects worth 2 trillion renminbi that local governments across the country are seeking to finance with outside investment. Analysts estimate that is on top of roughly 1,500 other projects worth 3 trillion renminbi that had been previously announced by the local authorities.

今年5月，中國最高經濟規劃機構公佈了一份包含1000多個項目的清單，這些項目總共價值兩萬億美元人民幣，全國各地的地方政府尋求獲得外部投資來開展這些項目。此外分析人士估計，地方政府此前共公佈了大約1500個項目，價值三萬億元人民幣。

A decade ago, the MTR Corporation, the Hong Kong subway operator, was an investor in Beijing’s fourth metro line. Beijing had won the right to host the 2008 Summer Olympics and was expanding its transport network at a blinding pace.

十年前，香港地鐵運營商港鐵公司(MTR Corporation)是北京地鐵4號線的投資方之一。當時北京贏得了2008年夏季奧運會的舉辦權，需要對交通網絡進行大規模擴張。

By the time it opened in 2009, passenger flows on the new line were much higher and revenue much lower than either party had forecast. This prompted huge subsidy payments from the Beijing government to the MTR, which did not sit well with local officials.

4號線在2009年投入運行的時候，其客流量之大，營收之低，遠出乎任何一方的預期。北京市政府需要爲港鐵公司提供鉅額補貼，該市官員對此難以接受。

So city officials simply rewrote the contract. The new terms reduced subsidy payments to the MTR, and were on balance more favorable to the city government. MTR, as the minority shareholder, had little room to object.

因此北京市官員直接改寫了合同。新的條款減少了對港鐵公司的補貼，更加有利於北京市政府。作爲少數股東，港鐵公司幾乎沒有反對之力。

Ren Yuhang, general manager of the finance department at Beijing Infrastructure Investment, the city government company charged with financing subway investment, compared such deals to a marriage.

北京市基礎設施投資公司是負責融資修建地鐵的市政府公司，其財政部門總經理任宇航把這樣的交易比作婚姻。

“It takes a lot of negotiation and compromise,” he said.

“這需要大量談判和妥協，”他說。

Xie Hua, a deputy manager at the MTR in charge of business development in China, said local officials often failed to appreciate the long duration of rail partnerships, which can extend to 30 years. Also, some local officials tend to focus too narrowly on just getting money.

港鐵公司負責中國業務發展的副經理謝華說，當地官員常常不能體會長期鐵路合作關係的價值，這種關係可以持續30年之久。此外，一些地方官員往往把目光過於狹隘地集中在賺錢上。

Foreign investors bring expertise and they want a say in how a project is run, but local officials often reply that their “biggest problem right now is funding,” Mr. Xie said. “The two sides have mismatched solutions.”

境外投資者帶來了專業知識，也希望對項目運營擁有一定的話語權。不過，地方官員對此的回答往往是，他們“眼下最大的問題就是融資，”謝華說。“所以雙方的解決方式並不對等。”

Such experiences, say analysts, could limit the appetite of foreign investors.

分析人士稱，類似的經歷或許會抑制境外投資者的胃口。

“The initial wave of all these projects definitely is going to be more suited to the local players,” said Stephen Ip, a partner and the head of government and infrastructure business at KPMG China, based in Shanghai. Foreign investors “can’t really make the leap of faith at the moment.”

“第一批這樣的項目肯定是更適合當地的參與者，”駐上海的畢馬威中國(KPMG China)政府機構和基建行業主管合夥人葉偉成(Stephen Ip)表示。境外投資者“目前並不能放手一搏”。

In Weifang, the local government has a list of nearly 70 projects it hopes to finance through the private-partnership model, for a total investment of 124 billion renminbi — about a quarter of the city’s economic output.

在濰坊，地方政府列出了一個包含近70個項目的清單，希望通過公私合作模式幫它們籌集1240億元人民幣的總投資。這一金額大約相當於該市經濟產出的四分之一。

Officials hope the money will help the city cope with rapid transformation. Farmland is giving way to new roads, rail lines and other large-scale infrastructure projects. A huge industrial park on the outskirts of town is busy with construction activity, but it is also dotted with symbols of previous booms that have fizzled.

官員希望，這筆錢能夠幫助濰坊應對快速的變化。農田正讓位於新的道路和鐵路線等大規模基礎設施建設項目。郊區有一座大型工業園，建設工作開展得如火如荼。不過，這裏也不時可以看到之前的幾輪開發熱潮消退後留下的痕跡。

Part of the idea behind bringing in private investment is to help offset a slowdown in other parts of the local economy, including real estate. Evidence of the property market slump can be seen in half-finished projects in the same industrial park, like Jinhe Aristocratic Family, a luxury housing development.

引入私人投資的部分想法是要幫忙緩解地方經濟中其他一些領域的放緩，包括房地產業。在這座工業園裏，就能通過停工的項目看到樓市滑坡的證據，比如豪華公寓開發項目“順德·金和世家”。

The six-tower complex was supposed to be completed this year, but the developer ran out of money. Dormant construction cranes tower over the site. Wild grass has since overtaken much of the freshly cleared earth.

這片由六棟高樓組成的住宅區本應今年完工，卻遭遇了開發商資金枯竭的問題。工地上的起重機處於閒置狀態。不久前清理的土地上，不少地方長了野草。

“If you are interested, I would suggest you purchase after the construction restarts,” said a lone security guard living at the Jinhe site, declining to give his name.

“如果想買，要我說最好等到重新開工以後，”工地上唯一的那名保安說。他不願透露自己的姓名。

The falling property market has cut deeply into local coffers. In Weifang, land sales, which account for a major share of the city’s income, plunged 40 percent last year, according to figures from Deutsche Bank.

樓市下滑對地方財政影響巨大。在濰坊，賣地的進賬佔到全市財政收入的一大塊。然而，根據德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)提供的數據，該市去年的賣地收入大降40%。

Weifang officials had some early success in attracting private capital.

在吸引私人資金方面，濰坊官員取得了一些初步成就。

The new hospital, built with funding from Sunshine Insurance, a company based in Beijing, aims to be the biggest medical facility in Shandong Province. The insurer, which this year spent $230 million to buy the Baccarat Hotel in New York, has local connections. The company’s chairman, Zhang Weigong, is a native of Weifang.

那家新醫院的建設資金來自陽光保險集團，意圖成爲山東省內規模最大的醫療機構。陽光保險的總部位於北京，今年耗資2.3億美元收購了紐約的巴卡拉酒店(Baccarat Hotel)。公司與濰坊有一定的聯繫——董事長張維功就來自這裏。

One of the biggest projects in Weifang is the local section of a new high-speed rail line connecting the major cities of Jinan and Qingdao. It is the country’s first high-speed rail project to secure private financing.

濰坊規模最大的項目之一是一段高鐵線路。這條高鐵將把兩大城市濟南和青島聯接起來，是中國首個得到私人融資的高鐵項目。

But the definition of private is a bit stretched, in some cases.

不過，在部分情況下，“私人”的概念有些擴大了。

The Weifang government is responsible for 4 billion renminbi of the 26 billion renminbi budget for the 147-kilometer, or 90-mile, portion that will run through the city. The main outside investor is the Postal Savings Bank of China, a sprawling, state-owned bank. Temasek Holdings, the Singapore state investment firm, has also agreed to participate in funding at the provincial level, according to local officials.

這條鐵路線的濰坊段長147千米，預算260億元人民幣，而市政府將提供40億元。主要的外部投資者是龐大的國有企業中國郵政儲蓄銀行。根據地方官員的說法，新加坡的國有投資公司淡馬錫控股(Temasek Holdings)也同意參與該項目的省級融資。

Even if the enthusiasm of private investors fails to keep pace, the force of urbanization seems unlikely to slow.

就算私人投資者的熱情滯後，城鎮化的力量也似乎不可阻擋。

In the sleepy village of Beiying on the outskirts of Weifang, a farmer who gave his surname as Pei is worried that the rail project will force him out of his home.

在濰坊郊外寧靜的北營村，一名裴姓農民擔心，高鐵項目會讓他失去家裏的房子。

“I was born in this village and have worked as a farmer my whole life,” said Mr. Pei, 50, who grows fruits and vegetables a few hundred yards from where construction on the rail line will start soon. “What else can I do if I don’t farm?”

“我生在村裏，在這裏當了一輩子農民，”50歲的老裴說。他種植蔬果的地方離馬上就要開工的高鐵工地只有幾百米。“不種地我還能幹什麼去？”