投資者將從中國兩會尋覓線索

With China’s annual parliament meeting opening in Beijing this weekend, punch-drunk stock investors will be looking for clues to help navigate its notoriously policy-driven market.

在中國一年一度的人代會本週末在北京召開之際，暈頭轉向的股市投資者將從中尋找蛛絲馬跡，以幫助他們把握這個著名的政策市。

They need all the help they can get. After a tumultuous 2015 that ended with the Shanghai Composite 9 per cent higher, the index has lost 19 per cent so far this year.

他們需要他們能夠得到的所有幫助。大漲大跌的2015年以上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)收漲9%結局，而今年迄今該指數已跌去19%。

For investors the challenge will be to uncover fresh investment opportunities in a market that has undergone numerous rounds of enthusiasm and retrenchment in recent months, based on an array of real and imagined policy trends.

對投資者來說，挑戰在於在中國股市發現新的投資機遇。最近幾個月，由於一系列真實或想象的政策趨勢，中國股市上演了無數次火爆和冷場。

One sardonic aphorism that has been circulating states: “All that can be hyped has been hyped already.”

近來有一句流傳的諷刺性格言是這麼說的：“所有能炒作的都炒作過了。”

The National People’s Congress (NPC) begins tomorrow with a speech in which Li Keqiang, premier, will formally present the government’s work report for parliamentary approval. The report, which lays out the policy priorities for the year, will provide valuable clues on how authorities intend to strike a balance between short-term stimulus and long-term structural reform.

全國人民代表大會(NPC)將於明天開幕，中國總理李克強將作政府工作報告，將其提交人大審議。報告會列出當年政策優先次序，它將提供有價值的線索，展示當局打算如何平衡短期刺激和長期結構性改革。

Most closely watched will be the growth target for gross domestic product, expected to be between 6.5 and 7 per cent. That compares with the 2015 target of “around 7 per cent” and actual growth of 6.9 per cent. A low-end target would indicate greater emphasis on deleveraging and reform but imply tolerance for more pain in the ailing manufacturing and construction sectors.

最受矚目的將是國內生產總值(GDP)增長目標，預計該目標會在6.5%到7%之間。這一目標將與2015年“7%左右”的增長目標及6.9%的實際增長率形成對照。若目標取在該區間的低端，將表明中國政府比較注重去槓桿和改革，但也意味着掙扎中的製造業和建築業將面臨更大痛苦。

“They understand the peril of excessive debt build-up and do not wish to pursue growth acceleration just for the sake of it,” says Wei Yao, China economist at Société Générale, in a note.

法國興業銀行(Société Générale)中國經濟學家姚煒在一份報告中表示：“他們明白積累過高債務的危險性，不希望爲增長而增長。”

A separate finance ministry report will outline the fiscal budget. It is widely expected to raise the fiscal deficit target for 2016, as authorities seek to complement recent monetary easing with greater fiscal stimulus.

財政部的另一份報告將介紹中國政府的財政預算。人們普遍預計，由於當局試圖以更大規模的財政刺激配合近期的貨幣政策放鬆，2016年的財政赤字目標會有所提升。

“We expect a very clear expansion of fiscal policy this year” says Shao Yu at Orient Securities in Shanghai. “The key is, where does the money flow?”

“我們預計今年會採取非常明確的擴張性財政政策。”上海東方證券(Orient Securities)的邵宇表示。“關鍵在於，資金會流向何方？”

If spending is directed towards traditional growth drivers such as housing and infrastructure, that will favour machinery, construction and basic commodity stocks. But some analysts expect fiscal support to concentrate on business tax cuts, which would favour smaller enterprises and the services sector. A third possibility is an emphasis on social welfare expenditure such as education, health and care for older people.

如果財政支出被導向住房和基礎設施等傳統的增長推動因素，那將有利於機械、建築及基本商品股票。不過，一些分析師預計財政支持舉措會集中於營業稅的減免，那將有利於小企業和服務業。第三種可能性則是會把重點放在教育、醫療及照顧老人等社會福利開支方面。

Another area of focus will be the government’s pursuit of “supply-side reform”, and any clues on the closing of “zombie companies” in sectors with overcapacity such as steel, coal and base metals.

另一個關注領域將是政府對“供給側改革”的推行，以及關閉鋼鐵、煤炭和基礎金屬等產能過剩行業的“殭屍企業”的跡象。

While the broad policy direction is clear, what is less certain is how aggressively the government will proceed, given the risks of unemployment, falling tax revenues and the loan defaults that would result.

儘管政策大方向很清楚，但鑑於由此導致的失業、稅收減少和貸款違約風險，政府推行這些政策的力度不那麼確定。

A stronger than expected push to deal with overcapacity would boost stocks of the leading companies in the relevant sectors, which would enjoy reduced competition and higher prices. Generous budget allocations for lay-off compensation would signal that the restructuring push is to happen.

在應對產能過剩方面，比預期更大的推行力度將提振相關行業龍頭企業的股價，這些企業將得益於減弱的競爭和較高的價格。對下崗補償的大額撥款將預示政府會推行經濟結構調整。

Chinese bond investors will also be watching the meeting with interest, including foreign investors, given the central bank move last month to widen access to the onshore bond market.

考慮到中國央行(PBoC)上月採取措施擴大在岸債券市場投資准入範圍，中國債券的投資者（包括境外投資者）也將密切關注兩會。

The report will include targets for broad money (M2) growth, a policy that influences liquidity in the money and bond markets. M2 growth of 13.3 per cent last year exceeded the target of 12 per cent and a similar target is expected this year.

兩會的報告將包含廣義貨幣供應量(M2)的增長目標，該政策將影響貨幣和債券市場的流動性。去年M2增長13.3%，超過12%的目標，今年預計也將設立類似的目標。

Sovereign bond investors are likely to take heart from signs that monetary accommodation will continue, making a jump in interest rates triggering a bond sell-off unlikely. But spreads on riskier corporate bonds could widen if the government signals a strong commitment to restructuring, which implies a greater tolerance for defaults and the withdrawal of implicit guarantees.

貨幣寬鬆將繼續進行的跡象可能會讓主權債券投資者增強信心，因爲它意味着加息引發債券拋售變得不太可能。但如果政府做出推進結構調整的堅定承諾，暗示對違約和撤回隱形擔保採取更寬容的態度，那麼風險更高的公司債券的息差可能擴大。

But whatever the policy signals, analysts say foreign investors are unlikely to rush in to the Chinese bond market.

但無論政策釋放出何種信號，分析師們表示境外投資者不太可能貿然進入中國債市。