中國債券市場危機顯露 投資人驚慌大綱

SHANGHAI — Chinese officials cheered on the country’s stock market when it reached heady new highs, offering hope that it could become a new source of money to fix China’s economic problems. Then, last year, the market crashed.

上海——去年，當中國股市令人興奮地屢創新高時，中國官員歡欣雀躍不已，希望它可以成爲一個新的資金來源，幫助解決中國的經濟問題。然後，股市崩盤了。

Now another fast-growing part of China’s vast and increasingly complicated financial market is showing signs of distress: its $9 trillion bond market.

現在，在中國龐大且日趨複雜的金融市場中，另一個快速增長的部門正在顯露出危機跡象：9萬億美元規模的債券市場。

Prices for government and corporate bonds have tumbled over the past week, a sell-off that continued on Tuesday. The situation has spooked investors, prompting the government to temporarily restrain some trading and to make emergency loans to struggling financial institutions.

上週，國債和企業債券出現價格下跌，本週二拋售仍在繼續。這種情況令投資者感到驚恐，他們敦促政府暫時限制一些交易，並向處於困境的金融機構提供緊急貸款。

The price drops have resulted in higher borrowing costs at a time when more Chinese companies need the money to cope with slowing economic growth. Yields reached new highs again on Tuesday.

當更多的中國企業需要貨幣來應對經濟增長放緩時，債券價格下降導致了借款成本的增加。週二，債券收益率再次創下新高。

In part, China is reacting to financial shifts across the globe. With the Federal Reserve raising short-term interest rates and many expecting the presidency of Donald J. Trump to lead to heavier government spending, investors worldwide are selling bonds.

從一定程度上說，這也是中國正在對全球金融變化做出反應。隨着美聯儲提高短期利率，以及很多人認爲唐納德•J•特朗普(Donald J. Trump)上任後會加大政府支出，全球投資者都在出手債券。

But China is struggling with its own balancing act. The Chinese bond slump also stems from Beijing’s efforts to wring excess money from its financial system and to stop potential bubbles that may lurk in shadowy, hard-to-track corners of its economy. Should it continue with those efforts, bonds could fall further.

但中國在實施自己的平衡措施時步履維艱。中國債券下跌的另一個原因是北京力圖從金融體系中擠壓出超發的貨幣，防止潛在泡沫出現，這些泡沫可能藏在陰暗的、難以追蹤的經濟角落。如果北京繼續這些努力，債券價格可能還會進一步下跌。

“The adjustment has not yet finished,” said Miao Zuoxing, a partner at the FXM Brothers Fund, a Shanghai-based investment fund that trades stocks, bonds and futures. “It will continue and normalize until money is put where the government can see it.”

“這一輪調整還未結束，將繼續修正、規範化，使錢放在政府看得到的地方。”在上海開展股票、債券和期貨交易的投資基金FXM兄弟基金合夥人苗作興說。

At least 40 companies have said they would postpone or cancel bond offerings rather than risk being forced to pay high interest rates to sell the bonds — or being unable to sell them at all. Among them was the Jiangsu Sumec Group Corporation, an industrial trading house that exports items as varied as gardening tools and auto parts; the company said on Thursday that it would not go through with the sale of $130 million in short-term bonds.

至少有40家企業表示，他們將推遲或取消債券發行，因爲銷售債券會有被迫支付高額利率的風險，或者根本就銷不出去。江蘇蘇美達集團就是其中之一，這家工業貿易公司出口的商品五花八門，從園藝工具到汽車零部件都有。上週四，該公司取消了1.3億美元短期債券的發行。

“Due to recent, relatively large market fluctuations, our company decided to cancel the issue of the current bond,” Jiangsu Sumec Group said in a statement, “and will reissue it at a chosen time.”

“鑑於近期市場波動較大，本公司決定取消本期債券發行，擇時重新發行。”江蘇蘇美達集團在一份聲明中表示。

China has particular reason to worry. As the world’s second-largest economy, after the United States, it relies on a rickety financial system that is mired in debt and susceptible to hidden stresses. Higher overseas interest rates could also prompt more Chinese investors to move their money out of the country, either to chase higher returns elsewhere or to avoid what some see as China’s growing problems.

中國有特別的理由感到擔心。作爲僅次於美國的全球第二大經濟體，它的金融體系相當脆弱，眼下深陷債務，容易受隱性壓力的影響。海外利率升高也可能會促使更多的中國投資者將資金轉移出國，以追求更高的回報，或者是避開一些人眼中中國正在日益加劇的問題。

The outflows are “adding to domestic banking system stresses and weakening the already fragile foundations of the entire financial system,” said Eswar S. Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University who was formerly chief of the China division at the International Monetary Fund.

這種資金流出“增加了國內銀行系統的壓力，削弱了整個金融體系已經很脆弱的基礎”，康奈爾大學貿易政策教授埃斯瓦爾•S•普拉薩德(Eswar S. Prasad)說道。他曾任國際貨幣基金組織的中國事務主管。

A healthy bond market is crucial to China’s restructuring plans. The country has been counting on its fast-growing bond market as one way to bring market discipline to its traditionally state-directed — and wasteful — economy.

健康的債市對中國的重組計劃至關重要。中國一直指望其快速增長的債市可以成爲一種途徑，將市場約束機制引入其傳統的、浪費資源的政府導向型經濟。

In the mature financial system of the United States, businesses have plenty of ways to get money. They can borrow from a bank, raise money selling stocks or bonds, or seek funds directly from any number of investors.

美國的金融體系比較成熟，企業有很多種辦法籌到資金。他們可以從銀行借款、靠出售股票或債券籌資，或者直接從任意數量的投資者那裏籌集資金。

But in China, state-run banks are by far the main source of funding. That helped power the country’s economic rise, but it also led to loans going to politically connected borrowers rather than to where the economy needed it most. That is one reason the Chinese economy is now stuck with more steel, glass, cement and auto factories than it needs.

但在中國，國有銀行是迄今爲止的主要資金來源。這有助於推動中國的經濟增長，但它也使得貸款流入了有政治背景的借款人那裏，而不是經濟最需要它的地方。這就是中國經濟如今陷在供過於求的鋼鐵、玻璃、水泥和汽車廠裏的原因之一。

Particularly in the past two years, China has taken steps to encourage the development of robust stock and bond markets as well as private lenders, needing a way to ensure the flow of money was being directed by profit-minded investors rather than politicians and their allies at state-owned banks.

特別是在過去兩年中，中國已採取措施，鼓勵股市、債市，以及私人貸款機構的健康發展，它需要一種方式來確保引導資金流向的是重視利潤的投資者，而不是政界人士及其在國有銀行的盟友。

The stock market crashed last year, and private lending has been slow to take off. But until this past week, the bond market had performed well. The investment arms of local governments and other large borrowers rushed in recent months to issue bonds at low interest rates and to pay off bank loans issued at higher rates — just as the government intended. Bond issuance jumped 47 percent in the first 11 months of this year from the same period last year.

去年股市崩盤，私人貸款發展緩慢。但在上週之前，中國債市一直走勢良好。地方政府的投資部門和其他大型借款機構最近數月涌入債市，以低利率發行債券，償還利率更高的銀行貸款——這也正是政府的意圖所在。今年前11個月，債券發行量比去年同期增長了47%。

What the government did not foresee was an explosion of speculative bond trading by Chinese banks.

政府沒有預見的到是，中國各家銀行進行的投機性債券交易出現了爆炸式增長。

Banks have increasingly raised money by selling wealth management products, investments that have the look and feel of dependable bank deposits and are usually sold to average investors. Banks rarely disclose what is behind those wealth management products and generally keep them off their books.

銀行越來越多地通過出售理財產品籌集資金，這些產品看上去像是可靠的銀行存款，通常出售給普通投資者。銀行極少披露這些理財產品背後的內幕，而且通常也不把它們計入資產負債表。

Still, it is becoming increasingly clear that many of them are backed by bonds. The bond holdings of wealth management products more than doubled over the 18-month period that ended in June. Adding to the risks, banks are also making large, leveraged bets on the direction of bond prices.

然而，越來越清楚的是，很多理財產品都在以債券爲支撐。理財產品的債券持有量在截至今年6月的18個月內翻了一番。除了這種風險之外，銀行還使用大規模槓桿押注債券價格的走向。

Now the government is moving to rein it in. On Monday evening, The Financial News, a newspaper controlled by China’s central bank, published questions and answers with ad central bank official who was identified only as being in charge of the reviews of banks’ financial soundness. The official told the newspaper that starting next year, the central bank would include wealth management products in these reviews.

現在政府正在努力控制它。週一晚上，中國央行主管的報紙《金融時報》(The Financial News)發表了對一名央行官員的採訪，文中只提到該官員負責評估銀行財務的健全性。這名官員說，從明年開始，央行將把理財產品納入評估範圍。

A press officer at the central bank confirmed that the interview was an accurate reflection of the institution’s views but declined to elaborate.

央行的一名新聞官員證實該採訪準確地反映了該機構的觀點，但拒絕進行詳細闡述。

On Tuesday, the yield on one-year government bonds rose to 3.11 percent, compared with 2.35 percent two weeks ago, a considerable jump for bonds. Yields go up when bond prices go down, and a higher yield makes it more expensive to issue bonds.

週二，一年期的國債收益率從兩週前的2.35%上升到3.11%，對於債券來說，這個漲幅已經很大。當債券價格下跌時，收益率就會上漲，導致發行債券的成本增加。

Corporate bond yields are also rising fast, as investors have begun demanding a better return from entrusting their money to China’s frequently opaque companies. That reverses a trend from earlier this year, when investors were so enthusiastic for Chinese bonds that they bought corporate bonds as well, narrowing the natural spread between government and corporate bonds.

企業債券的收益率也在快速上升，對於將資金注入到常常不透明的中國公司，投資者已經開始要求獲得更好的回報。這反轉了今年早些時候的趨勢：當時投資者對中國債券非常看好，他們也購買了企業債券，導致國債和企業債券之間的自然差距縮小。

Mr. Miao, of FXM Brothers, predicted that corporate bonds would continue to sell off until the spread between government corporate yields was wider again.

FXM兄弟基金合夥人苗作興預測說，企業債券將會繼續遭到拋售，直到政府和企業債券收益率的差距再次拉大爲止。

“When the corporate bubble has burst,” he said, “then we could say the adjustment is finished.”

“去除了企業債泡沫後，”他說，“這一輪調整纔算完成。”