讓今年更賺錢的六大投資思路

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Dire predictions of market collapses and economic gloom in 2012 have so far proven overly pessimistic. But what should investors do to continue making money the rest of the year?

有些人曾預測2012年金融市場可能崩潰，經濟前景一片黯淡，但從目前來看，這一預測過於悲觀。投資者該如何去做，才能在今年餘下的幾個月裏繼續賺錢？

In January, many expected Europe's debt woes to spread from Greece to the rest of the euro zone, China's economic growth rate to falter and the U.S. to be once again gripped by a midyear market scare, if not necessarily one triggered by a debt-ceiling debate and a debt downgrade.

2012年1月，許多人認爲歐債危機會從希臘蔓延到整個歐元區，中國經濟增速徘徊不前，美國股市將在年中因債務上限爭論或債務降級等因素再度遭遇拋售恐慌。

Given those concerns, many investors predicted the price of U.S. Treasurys, which do well when investors are fearful, would rise and the price of stocks and other risky assets would fall.

在這種考慮下，很多投資者認爲美國國債（往往在市場恐慌時表現較好）的價格會上漲，股票和其他風險資產的價格會下跌。

Treasury prices did indeed rise, while their yields, which move in the opposite direction, fell to record lows. But the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has gained nearly 14% so far this year, while high-yield 'junk' bonds have returned nearly 10%. In fact, most major asset classes are in positive territory for the year.

國債價格確實上漲了，與國債價格反向運動的國債收益率跌至歷史低位，但標普500股票指數(Standard & Poor's 500-stock index)今年至今也已上漲近14%，高收益“垃圾債券”的回報率接近10%。事實上，今年大多數的主流資產類別都實現了正收益。

Behind the solid performance: European policy makers have been proactive in dealing with the Continent's problems, the decline in China's growth rate might be coming to an end, and the U.S. economy hasn't slipped into a recession.

支撐這些堅實投資業績的是：歐洲政策制定者積極主動應對歐洲大陸面臨的各種問題，中國的經濟增長率可能止跌回升，美國也沒有陷入另一次經濟衰退之中。

Yet substantial uncertainties remain, ranging from the Federal Reserve decision on whether to launch another round of bond buying, China's leadership transition and Europe's wobbly single-currency zone.

不過，未來還有很大的不確定性，如美聯儲(Federal Reserve)會不會展開新一輪的國債購買行動，中國領導層的交接問題，以及歐洲搖搖欲墜的單一貨幣體制等。

To top it off, the U.S. elections in November could determine whether taxes rise or fall next year, and whether budget cuts will take a big chunk out of the gross domestic product.

此外，美國11月份的大選將決定明年稅收政策的起伏，以及預算削減是否會給國內生產總值(GDP)帶來較大的不利影響。

'There are a lot of stresses in the global marketplace and events that could lead to volatility,' says Phil Sharkey, head of investments for the New York metropolitan region at Citi Private Bank. 'You have an opportunity to look at where your portfolio is and consider whether or not you can make some changes.'

花旗私人銀行(Citi Private Bank)負責紐約大都市區域投資業務的主管菲爾•沙奇(Phil Sharkey)說，“全球市場還存在很多壓力，突發事件風險較大，這都可能導致市場出現波動。你現在可以審視一下自己的投資組合，看看是否有需要調整的地方。”

The key for investors is to find investments that still have room to rally during the next four months, but also can weather the potential downturns. Here are six ideas, culled from interviews with money managers and other experts:

對投資者來說，最關鍵的是要找到一些投資品種，既能在今年未來四個月中保持上漲空間，又能抵禦經濟低迷的風險。《華爾街日報》採訪了投資經理和其他一些專家，總結出以下六大投資思路：

High-Yield Bonds

高收益債券

Yes, corporate junk bonds have rallied nearly 10% this year. And, yes, their yields have dropped to 6.87%, near their lowest level in at least 15 years. Still, the asset class offers the chance to earn solid returns for the rest of the year.

沒錯，企業垃圾債券今年已經上漲近10%；沒錯，它們的收益率已跌至6.87%，接近至少15年以來的最低點。不過，在未來數月，該資產類別仍有機會獲得良好的投資收益。

Default rates are low, as the economy is doing just well enough for issuers to make their payments-and the Federal Reserve has promised to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels. 'You're kind of in the sweet spot,' says Eric Stein, manager of the Eaton Vance Strategic Income fund, which had 29% of its $2.9 billion portfolio in high-yield investments as of June 30.

企業垃圾債券的違約率很低，因爲經濟運行情況尚好，發債方能按時支付本息──而且美聯儲也已承諾繼續把利率維持在極低的水平。伊頓萬斯收入戰略基金(Eaton Vance Strategic Income fund)的投資經理艾瑞克•斯坦恩(Eric Stein)說，“目前正是天時、地利、人和。”截至2012年6月30日，該基金管理的29億美元有29%放在高收益投資品種上。

The rally, though, has made it tougher to find value. Michael Lewitt, a portfolio manager at Cumberland Advisors, which has $2.1 billion under management, says that he is looking at short-term triple-C-rated bonds-those near the low end of the rating scale-that were the result of leveraged buyouts done right before the financial crisis.

不過，企業垃圾債券的整體上揚也讓尋找價值窪地變得相對困難。美國坎伯蘭顧問公司(Cumberland Advisors)管理着21億美元的資產，其投資組合經理邁克爾•萊維特(Michael Lewitt)說，他正在關注投資級別爲CCC的短期債券──即在評級標準上接近最差等級的品種──這些債券大多是金融危機爆發前不久因槓桿收購而產生的。

The issuers might have taken on too much debt, he says, but many still have solid businesses, limiting the chance of defaults.

萊維特說，這些發債方的債務負擔也許很重，但其中不少企業的經營比較穩定，從而降低了違約的可能性。

Junk-bond funds that have been among the top performers this year and during the past three years include Federated High Yield Trust, Fidelity Advisor High Income Advantage and Hotchkis & Wiley High Yield Fund, according to Lipper.

根據基金情報提供商理柏公司(Lipper)的數據，垃圾債券基金是過去三年及今年至今以來表現最好的基金之一，包括聯邦高收益信託基金(Federated High Yield Trust)、富達顧問高收入優勢基金(Fidelity Advisor High Income Advantage)和Hotchkis & Wiley高收益基金(Hotchkis & Wiley High Yield Fund)等。

Municipal Bonds

市政債券

Municipal borrowers have gotten a lot of bad press this year, with cities like Stockton and San Bernardino in California filing for bankruptcy protection, sparking fears of more to come. But so far the asset class has weathered those defaults just fine, with the Barclays Municipal Bond index returning about 5% so far this year.

今年，市政借款人的壞消息不斷，加州的斯托克頓(Stockton)和聖伯納地諾(San Bernardino)等城市申請破產保護引發了更多的恐慌。不過，該資產類別目前經受住了違約的衝擊，巴克萊市政債券指數(Barclays Municipal Bond index)本年至今的回報率在5%左右。

And since the bonds are tax-free, the returns are that much more valuable than those of other fixed-income products.

由於市政債是免稅的，因此其投資回報的含金量比其他固定收益產品多得多。

The recent bankruptcies 'are very specific instances of financial trouble,' says Guy Benstead, a partner at Cedar Ridge Partners, which manages more than $600 million, speaking of the high-profile defaults. 'But contagion is just not there.'

Cedar Ridge Partners公司管理着六億多美元的資產，其合夥人蓋•本斯泰德(Guy Benstead)在談到近期這些備受矚目的債券違約時說，“這是一些地方政府出現財政危機的具體體現，但不至於蔓延開來。”

Municipal-bond yields are very attractive right now. A 30-year triple-A muni now pays 3.01%, Mr. Benstead says-1.7 percentage points more than an equivalent Treasury, once you factor in the tax break. Some states are even more generous: The average bond issued by New York state, for example, now yields 3.23%. New York is rated double-A by S&P.

本斯泰德說，目前市政債的收益率很有吸引力，30年期AAA級品種的利率爲3.01%，把免稅因素考慮在內的話，要比同期限美國國債的利率多出1.7個百分點。有些州的市政債利率更高。舉例而言，紐約州發行的市政債目前平均收益率爲3.23%，其在標普的投資等級爲AA級。

'You can buy tax-free income with close to the same yield as taxable bonds,' Mr. Benstead says.

本斯泰德說，“免稅債券的收益率已與非免稅債券相差無幾。”

If tax rates look like they will rise in 2013, municipal bonds might get another boost. As part of President Barack Obama's health-care overhaul, high-earning investors will be hit with a 3.8 percentage-point surtax on investment income next year. That makes munis, whose income isn't subject to the tax, that much more attractive, says Ron Roge, chief executive of wealth manager R.W. Roge & Co. in Bohemia, N.Y., which oversees more than $200 million.

如果2013年的稅率上升，市政債券還將再次走紅。作爲奧巴馬總統(President Barack Obama)醫療改革方案的一部分，明年政府將對高收入投資者額外徵收3.8個百分點的利得稅。財富管理公司R.W. Roge & Co.的首席執行長羅恩•羅傑(Ron Roge)說，這將使免稅的市政債券變得更有吸引力。該公司位於紐約州波西米亞市(Bohemia)，管理着超過兩億美元的資產。

'People will realize they can shelter money in muni bonds,' he says. 'Demand will go up and prices will go up.'

羅傑說，“人們會意識到，他們可以把資金投到市政債券這個避風港上。對市政債券的需求將會加大，價格將上漲。”

Investment research firm Morningstar's top muni-bond mutual-fund picks include Fidelity Intermediate Municipal Income and Franklin Federal Tax-Free Income.

投資研究機構晨星公司(Morningstar)評選的最佳市政債券共同基金包括富達中級市政收入基金(Fidelity Intermediate Municipal Income)和富蘭克林聯邦免稅收入基金(Franklin Federal Tax-Free Income)等。

Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities

住房貸款抵押債券

During the housing downturn of 2008, few assets were more unloved than so-called nonagency residential mortgage-backed securities-those backed by home loans that weren't insured by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac FMCC -23.33% .

在2008年美國住房市場陷入衰退期間，非機構擔保住房貸款抵押債券(nonagency RMBS)是最不受歡迎的；也就是說，這些債券的房屋抵押物沒有房利美(Fannie Mae)或房地美(Freddie Mac)提供擔保。

But in these days of low yields, nonagency RMBS have suddenly become popular. The reason? Once bad loans are accounted for, their yields average about 7%, more than double the yield on a 30-year Treasury bond.

但在目前的低收益率環境下，非機構RMBS突然變得吃香起來。原因何在？因爲即使把不良貸款考慮在內，這些債券的平均收益率約爲7%，是30年期美國國債收益率的一倍以上。

They also are benefiting from the fact that no new securities are hitting the market while older bonds are slowly disappearing, as homeowners refinance the loans and pay down their balances, says Michael Murgio, chief investment strategist at GenSpring Family Offices, a wealth-management firm that oversees $15.4 billion.

Genspring Family Offices是一家管理着154億美元資產的財富管理公司，其首席投資策略師邁克爾•莫奇奧(Michael Murgio)說，還有一點對這種債券是有利的，即沒有新債券投放市場，老債券則隨着房屋業主的貸款再融資和分期還貸在慢慢消失。

At the same time, the issues that have plagued these securities are slowly being worked out, says Tad Rivelle, chief investment officer for fixed income at asset-manager TCW Group, which oversees $77 billion in U.S. fixed-income assets.

資產管理公司TCW Group的固定收益投資總監泰德•瑞威爾(Tad Rivelle)說，與此同時，將這些債券推入深淵的種種問題正在慢慢得到解決。該公司管理着770億美元的美國固定收益資產。

Among the positives: Mortgage servicers have been putting the infrastructure in place to deal with defaults; losses on the loans have been steady and could get smaller; and the housing market looks like it could be turning the corner.

各種利好因素包括：抵押貸款服務商一直在建立機制應對違約情況；貸款損失金額比較穩定，並有可能減少；住房市場出現復甦跡象。

It is difficult and expensive for small investors to buy RMBS directly. Instead, Lou Stanasolovich of Legend Financial Advisors recommends the Angel Oak Multi-Strategy Income mutual fund, which had more than 78% of its portfolio allocated to nonagency RMBS as of the end of June, according to Morningstar.

小投資者直接購買非機構RMBS比較困難，成本也高。Legend Financial Advisors公司的盧•斯塔納索洛維奇(Lou Stanasolovich)建議買入天使橡木多元化收入(Angel Oak Multi-Strategy Income)共同基金。據晨星公司的數據，截至2012年6月底，該基金配置在非機構RMBS上的比重超過78%。

Dividend-Paying Stocks

分紅股票

It is tempting to look at the high valuations attached to dividend-paying stocks and say they are overpriced. But investors should remember that the last time government-bond yields were so low was in the 1950s, says Tobias Levkovich, head of U.S. equity strategy at Citigroup. He believes dividend payers could outperform as long as interest rates stay low.

人們可能會注意到分紅股票的高估值，因此認爲其價格過高。然而，花旗集團(Citigroup)首席美國股票策略師託拜斯•萊夫科維奇(Tobias Levkovich)說，投資者應該記住20世紀50年代美國國債收益率極低的那個時期。他認爲，只要利率保持低位運行，分紅股票會有更好的表現。

That is especially true if something goes wrong in Europe or elsewhere in the world, says Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist at Chicago-based private bank Northern Trust NTRS +0.13% .

芝加哥私人銀行Northern Trust的首席投資策略師吉姆•麥當勞(Jim McDonald)說，如果歐洲或其他國家爆發危機，分紅股票的優勢會更明顯。

He is telling clients to load up on high-quality U.S. large-cap stocks, as well as on global multinational corporations that are benefiting from U.S. stability and stronger growth in emerging markets. (For more on dividend-stock strategies, see this week's Upside column, page B7.)

他建議客戶增持高質量的美國大市值股票，以及那些能從美國保持穩定和新興市場增長加速中獲益的全球跨國公司股票。

With the Bush-era tax cuts for dividends set to expire in 2013, Mr. Levkovich says investors should consider companies that are in a position to raise debt in order to issue special one-time payouts before year-end. In a recent report, Mr. Levkovich said companies like Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, FCX +0.08% Marathon Oil MRO -0.95% and Best Buy BBY -0.69% could be candidates for such payouts, based on a screen that looked at debt levels and other measures.

由於小布什(Bush)執政期間的股息減稅政策即將於2013年到期，萊夫科維奇建議投資者考慮持有那些有能力在今年年底發行債券用於一次性特別分紅的上市公司。在最近一份研究報告中，萊夫科維奇根據對負債水平和其他一些指標的分析，推薦的是弗裏波特-麥克莫蘭銅金公司(Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold)、馬拉松石油公司(Marathon Oil)和百思買公司(Best Buy)。

Cyclical Stocks

週期性股票

Investors looking for a riskier bet should consider stocks in more economically sensitive sectors of the market known as 'cyclicals,' including tech and energy, some strategists say. Such companies could see a pop if potential economic problems are resolved.

一些策略師表示，追求高風險高收益的投資者可以考慮對經濟環境更爲敏感的“週期性”板塊，包括高科技和能源類股票等。如果經濟方面的潛在問題得以解決，這些上市公司的表現會有長足進步。

For example, cyclical stocks could benefit if U.S. economic data improve this fall after the early summer's run of soft numbers, says Barry Knapp, chief equity strategist at Barclays +3.57% . They also could rally if the U.S. elections provide clarity on taxes and budget cuts.

巴克萊(Barclays)首席股票策略師巴里•納普(Barry Knapp)說，舉例而言，如果美國的經濟數據繼今年夏初的疲軟後有所復甦，週期性股票將獲益良多。如果美國大選在稅收政策和預算削減問題上掃清迷霧，這些股票也可能大漲。

A lower-risk, if more complicated, bet would be buying call options, which give investors the chance to buy an asset at a predetermined price, on industrial stocks, Mr. Knapp says.

納普說，一個風險相對較低、但可能更爲複雜的做法是買入工業類股票的看漲期權，從而讓投資者能以事先確定的價格購買資產。

Cyclical stocks also have the benefit of being cheap. In the three months since the market's recent low on June 12, the S&P 500 rallied 8.5%, but cyclicals underperformed 'defensive' stocks by about 0.3%, according to Credit Suisse +2.26% research.

週期性股票還有一個好處，就是便宜。據瑞士信貸集團(Credit Suisse)的數據，從2012年6月12日的市場近期低點以來，近三個月標普500指數上揚了8.5%，但週期性股票的表現落後於“防禦型”股票0.3個百分點左右。

That is highly unusual: During the past 30 years, it has happened just 10 times, the last time in 2006. During six of those episodes, the markets continued to rally, with cyclical stocks taking the lead.

這十分不正常：過去30年來，這種情況只發生過10次，最近一次是在2006年。在這10次中，有六次市場繼續上漲，而領軍的正是週期性股票。

Energy stocks now have a 12-month forward price/earnings ratio of 11.5, compared with the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 12.8. Industrial stocks have a P/E ratio of 12.6.

目前，能源類股票的未來12個月市盈率(P/E)爲11.5，而標普500指數的市盈率爲12.8，工業類股票的市盈率爲12.6。

Low-cost exchange-traded funds that track cyclical stocks include the Industrial Select Sector SPDR XLI +0.49% and the Energy Select Sector SPDR XLE -0.04% .

投資者可以選擇低成本的跟蹤週期性股票的交易所交易基金(ETF)，如Industrial Select Sector SPDR和Energy Select Sector SPDR等。

Emerging-Market Bonds

新興市場債券

Despite the slowdown in economic growth that has hit much of the developing world, bonds issued by emerging-market nations still look attractive. Such markets used to be considered debt-laden and volatile; these days they offer cleaner balance sheets and economic growth.

雖然許多發展中國家的經濟增長都出現放緩，但新興市場國家發行的債券依然具有吸引力。以往人們認爲這些國家的債務水平高，市場波動性大，但現在看來，新興國家的資產負債表更健康，經濟增長能力較強。

They also offer something you can't get with most developed-market government bonds: yield. The payouts might not be astronomical, but they are much better than those offered by Treasurys, Mr. Stein says, whose $6.4 billion Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return fund owns the bonds of Malaysia, the Philippines and Mexico. The fund has returned 2.02% so far this year and has a yield of 3.64%.

新興市場債券還能提供絕大多數發達國家政府債券所欠缺的東西：收益率。斯坦恩說，雖然新興市場債券的收益率不算太高，但也比美國國債好得多。他管理的64億美元規模的伊頓萬斯全球宏觀絕對收益基金(Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return fund)持有馬來西亞、菲律賓和墨西哥的債券。該基金本年至今的投資回報率是2.02%，債券收益率爲3.64%。

So far this year, emerging-market bonds denominated in U.S. dollars have returned close to 12%, nearly four percentage points more than such bonds denominated in local currencies.

今年至今，以美元計價的新興市場債券的回報率接近12%，比以當地貨幣計價的此類債券高出近四個百分點。

That might be about to change. David Rolley, co-head of the global fixed-income group at money manager Loomis Sayles, says local currency bonds offer more opportunity than those denominated in U.S. dollars, though investors should expect more volatile price swings. 'Some have been very volatile,' he says. 'But there's better value in local currency bonds.'

這種情況可能即將發生變化。資產管理公司Loomis Sayles的全球固定收益聯席經理戴維•羅利(David Rolley)說，以當地貨幣計價的新興市場債券有更大的投資機會，當然，其價格波動性可能也更大。羅利說，“有些債券波動性非常大，但更具投資價值。”