最後一個古典主義者 科比 安東尼美如畫的中投正在聯盟中消逝!

In June 2003, a group of amateurs including LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Melo became professionals. Few draft classes can match such superstar clout, and over the past 15 seasons, those dudes have come to define the post-Jordan NBA.

2003年6月，一羣初出茅廬的新秀，包括勒布朗詹姆斯，德懷恩韋德，克里斯波什和甜瓜正式成爲了職業球員。幾乎沒有哪屆選秀能媲美巨星雲集的03屆，在過去的15個賽季，這批傢伙定義了後喬丹時代的聯盟。

At the time, the NBA was in an awkward spot. Every promising young player, from Vince Carter to Kobe Bryant,was labeled the next stars of the 2003 draft class got to meditate on MJ's hero ball for years. But as the game changed, so did the league's top young superstars — embracing ball movement, 3-point shooting and defensive versatility. Well, most of them.

當時，NBA正處於一個尷尬的過渡期。從飛人卡特到科比布萊恩特，每一個有希望的年輕運動員被貼上了下一個喬丹的標籤。03屆新秀裏的球星們多年來只能思考繼承喬丹的衣鉢。但是隨着比賽的改變，聯盟的頂尖年輕巨星也隨之改變——推崇小球輪轉，3分投射和全面防守能力。至少他們中的大多數都是如此。

While many top prospects play with a raw, frenetic energy, Carmelo was cool. His poise stood out within the hectic, hyperactive setting of college onywas bound for glory. LeBron was going to be the first pick, but Anthony was a sure thing. His predraft analysis was glowing.

儘管衆多頂尖球員打球充滿了原始的衝勁，甜瓜打球卻一板一眼。他身體平衡突出，延續着大學籃球的特點。安東尼註定會大放異彩。當年勒布朗以狀元身份被選中，但安東尼也絕非浪得虛名。他選秀前分析也是榮耀滿滿。

Advanced stats have never been kind to Melo on D, but what about on offense? After all, he was one of the most gifted young scorers of his era. Welp, those stats are also unkind.

甜瓜防守端的數據並不理想，那麼進攻呢？畢竟，他曾是他所屬時代最具天賦的年輕得分手之一。很遺憾，也不盡如人意。

Anthony's career TS% is 54.2, below the current NBA average of 55.7. His best season through this lens was 2007-08, when he logged a healthy 56.8 ony was never able to combine volume and efficiency as well as the other top scorers of his era.

安東尼生涯真實投籃命中率僅爲54.2%，低於當前聯盟的平均值55.7%。他最佳表現是07-08賽季，當時他打出了56.8%命中率。和他同時期的大多數優秀得分手一樣，安東尼無法兼顧得分和效率。

But a closer look here reveals that the league's best young scorers are putting up much higher TS% than the older guys ever did. The MVPs of this decade are all more efficient, thanks in large part to adopting analytically correct shot diets that emphasize 3-point shooting while limiting the midrange.

但是更詳細的調查表明目前聯盟最好的年輕得分手的真實投籃命中率都高於之前的老將。這十年的MVP們都更加高效，主要由於他們調整了投籃的習慣，更強調3分，限制半截籃。

It wouldn't matter if Carmelo Anthony and Kobe Bryant were more gifted shooters than James Harden. Harden's stats look better because he avoids the midrange as much he as avoids shaving cream.

卡梅隆安東尼和科比布萊恩特是否比詹姆斯哈登更具投籃天賦，這無關緊要。哈登的數據看起來更好，因爲他儘可能不採取中投，正如他不刮鬍子一樣。

Harden's analytically correct shot diet is the key to his game. Anthony made 44.9 percent of his shots in 2012-13. Harden made the exact same amount in 2017-18, but his TS% dwarfs Melo's because Harden took more 3s and free throws than any other player in the league.

哈登的調整投籃得分習慣是他比賽的關鍵。12-13賽季安東尼投籃命中率44.9%，這和哈登17-18賽季的投籃命中率一致，但是哈登真實投籃命中率遠高於安東尼因爲哈登的3分和罰籃出手數比聯盟中其他任何球員都多。

Three-point shooting is just a symptom, and analytics are agnostic. The style of play we're watching right now — and the style that is incompatible with Carmelo — can also be attributed to a handful of legislative decisions that intentionally reformed the game. If Melo is a dinosaur, then the rule changes of 2004 just might be the meteor.

3分投籃只是一種表象，我們容易忽略的是背後的分析理論。我們當下所親眼目睹的比賽方式——也就是卡梅隆無法兼容的比賽方式——也是拜一系列旨在改革比賽的規則所賜。如果甜瓜是恐龍，那麼2004年的規則改革就是天上落下的隕石。

If present trends continue, we will never see gorgeous midrange monsters like Kobe, Melo, Dirk or Jordan again. That's some of the beauty we will lose, but we will see a lot more Hardens in part because the league is well aware of the stats encoded here.

如果放任當下潮流，我們將再也看不到像科比、甜瓜、德克和喬丹一樣出色的中投巨星。我們將失去這類的美如畫，但同時將看到更多像哈登一樣的表現，部分是因爲對於這些被編成密碼的數據，聯盟和我們一樣清楚它的含義。

Like MJ and Kobe, Carmelo Anthony loves to shoot from those blue areas. Unfortunately for him, in a league obsessed with analytical correctness, nobody finds that valuable anymore. That beauty is old-school now.

正如喬丹，科比一樣，安東尼喜歡在藍色區域投籃。不幸的是，聯盟當下癡迷於分析法及打球的正確性，沒人認爲中投有價值。那往日榮光已成爲追憶。

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