逆轉的“韓流”

China is vast, but the whole nation can still be swept by trends — especially if politics enters the frame. When the products of a business are shunned, the consequences can be painful. South Korea, formerly beloved by Chinese consumers for its K-pop and cosmetics, is in the sin bin for agreeing to host a missile defence system for the US. South Korean companies are getting caught in the cross hairs of Chinese disapproval. But the trend may not last long.

中國幅員遼闊，但整個國家仍可能被潮流所席捲——特別是如果牽扯到政治的話。當一家企業的產品被刻意避而不買，其後果可能是痛苦的。以前中國消費者鍾愛韓國流行音樂和化妝品，如今，由於同意讓美國部署反導系統，韓國已經“被罰下場”了。韓國公司淪爲中國不滿情緒的靶子。但這股潮流可能不會持續很久。

Hyundai Motor and affiliate Kia Motors are the latest to feel the chill. Yesterday, shares in the carmakers dipped in response to reports they have slashed production in China, where combined unit sales halved year on year in March. While neither splits out China revenues, this will drag down Asia’s contribution, around one-third of Hyundai’s total. The group’s Chinese plant sells around one-fifth of total volumes. Kia has similar metrics.

現代汽車(Hyundai Motor)及其關聯公司起亞汽車(Kia Motors)是最新感受到這股寒意的韓國公司。週二兩家公司的股價雙雙下跌，原因是有報道稱，它們削減了在華產量——3月份兩家公司在華銷量同比下降一半左右。雖說兩家公司都沒有單獨列出在華營收，但這肯定會拉低亞洲的貢獻，亞洲市場約佔現代總營收的三分之一。從中國工廠賣出的汽車約佔該集團總銷量的五分之一。起亞情況類似。

These are not the only South Korean consumer names with significant exposure to China. AmorePacific, purveyor of cosmetics, and Samsung Electronics earn around 20 per cent of revenues there. Abashed South Korean groups should learn from compatriot Lotte. The group, which has given over a golf course for the missile site, was the first to be blacklisted. Following official inspections, most of its 100 or more stores in China have been forced to close. But on Monday the company said it will continue to invest there.

在中國有較大業務的韓國消費品牌不只這兩家。化妝品集團愛茉莉太平洋(AmorePacific)和三星電子(Samsung Electronics)在華營收都佔到了總營收的20%左右。受挫的韓國集團應該向本國企業樂天(Lotte)學習。樂天讓出了一塊高爾夫球場用於部署反導系統，它是最先被列入黑名單的。在遭受官方檢查之後，樂天在中國的100來大賣場大多被迫關門。但週一該公司表示將繼續在中國投資。

Lotte’s long-term view is wise. Geopolitical trends are more unpredictable than usual. However, sabre-rattling by US president Donald Trump towards North Korea is as likely to lead to a rapprochement with China as it is to an escalation of tensions.

樂天抱着這種長遠眼光是明智的。當今地緣政治趨勢比往常更加不可預測。然而，美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)對朝鮮武力恫嚇既可能導致緊張局勢升級，也可能導致韓國與中國重新修好。

This month, Chinese consumers may be eager to boycott South Korean products, and to fall in line with a ban on travel to the country. Previous diplomatic spats with Japan did not stop Chinese consumers from hoovering up Japanese products ranging from nappies to high-tech toilet seats. Chinese products mostly cannot compete with Japanese or South Korean ones. Until this changes, its shoppers will continue to look east for quality goods.

本月，中國消費者可能迫切地要抵制韓國產品，並遵從赴韓旅遊禁令。以往中國與日本的外交紛爭並沒有妨礙中國消費者大肆購買各種各樣的日本產品，從尿布到高科技的馬桶座。中國產品大多無法與日本或韓國產品相比。在這種情況改變之前，中國消費者將繼續把目光投向東方，以尋找優質產品。