美國大選引發數字化冷戰
This year’s US election has given rise to plenty of peculiar developments.
今年的美國大選引發了很多奇怪的事態。
Here is another one: Carbon Black, a cyber security firm, has released a poll suggesting that 58 per cent of voters think it likely that electronic voting machines could be cyber-hacked.
這裏又有一樣：網絡安全公司Carbon Black公佈民調顯示，58%的選民認爲電子投票器被入侵的可能性較大。
Indeed, popular concern is so high that 15m voters may refuse to participate, Carbon Black says, noting that voters believe a US insider threat (28 per cent), Russia (17 per cent) and the candidates themselves (15 per cent) pose the biggest risks.
Carbon Black稱，事實上，公衆擔憂之甚，以至於1500萬選民可能會拒絕參加投票。該公司指出，選民認爲美國內部人士（28%）、俄羅斯（17%）和候選人本身（15%）是前幾大構成風險的危險因素。
It might seem tempting to dismiss this as marketing, or as a sign of the febrile political mood, but discounting that 58 per cent number that would be a terrible mistake.
我們可能很容易想把上述結果簡單地歸結爲一種營銷造勢，或一個顯示狂熱政治情緒的標誌，但是忽視這個58%的數字將是個嚴重的錯誤。
One reason is that many US government officials quietly share voters’ concerns.
一個原因是，美國很多政府官員私底下也存在與選民們相同的擔憂。
Little wonder.
這也難怪。
Small cyber breaches of the electoral register have already occurred in Arizona and Illinois.
亞利桑那州和伊利諾伊州的選民名冊數據庫已經遭到過小規模入侵。
Several states are thought to be vulnerable to attacks on the election system, particularly those, like Pennsylvania, that use direct-recording electronic machines to tally the vote.
多個州的選舉投票系統被認爲容易受到攻擊，特別是那些使用直接記錄電子機器來計票的州，比如賓夕法尼亞州。
Pennsylvania, largely thought to be a key battleground state in the upcoming election, may be the largest concern when it comes to electronic voting machines, Carbon Black suggests.
Carbon Black指出：賓州在即將舉行的大選中被認爲是關鍵戰場，而這個州的電子投票器可能是最令人擔憂的。
Even if election fears turn out to be misplaced, they highlight a bigger point: a new front is opening up in cyber warfare.
即便關於大選的擔憂到頭來原來是多慮，它們也突顯了更重要的一點：一條新戰線正在網絡戰爭中打開。
This has big implications for both political pundits and business leaders.
這對政治專家和商界領袖影響重大。
Two decades ago, it was presumed that hackers aimed to do one of four things: steal money; grab secrets; highlight a political cause; or inflict physical sabotage.
二十年前，人們認定黑客的目標無非是做以下四件事之一：偷錢、竊取情報、促使世人關注某項政治事業、或造成實際的破壞。
Western intelligence forces have moved to offset those threats.
西方情報部門已採取行動來消除這些威脅。
For example, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Homeland Security are currently running a cyber security awareness month to teach consumers and businesses how to avoid fraud and theft.
例如，美國聯邦調查局(FBI)和國土安全局(DHS)目前正在開展網絡安全意識月活動，教消費者和企業如何避免遭受欺詐和盜竊。
Meanwhile, the US military and DHS have been scrambled to protect so-called systemically important infrastructure from sabotage.
與此同時，美國軍隊和國土安全局爭相保護所謂具有系統重要性的基礎設施免遭破壞。
There is intense activity around the US electricity grid, after hackers damaged a Ukrainian grid last year.
在去年黑客破壞烏克蘭電網後，針對美國電網也存在密集的黑客活動。
The US election has put a fifth category of risks on the radar: cyber attacks that aim to inflict psychological damage by shattering public trust.
美國大選將第五種風險帶到了人們的視線中：旨在通過動搖公衆信任而造成心理上的破壞的網絡攻擊。
People have got it all wrong, Dmitri Alperovitch, founder of cyber security group CrowdStrike, recently told me.
人們全搞錯了，網絡安全公司CrowdStrike的創始人德米特里•阿爾佩羅維奇(Dmitri Alperovitch)最近向我表示。
(CrowdStrike revealed that hackers, apparently linked to Russia, had infiltrated the Democratic National Committee.)
（CrowdStrike透露，看上去與俄羅斯有關聯的黑客之前已滲入過民主黨全國委員會(DNC)的網絡）。
For the past 30 years everyone has worried about kinetic attacks, say an attack on a grid — we were waiting for a cyber Pearl Harbor.
過去30年，每個人都擔心動力受到攻擊、也就是電網受到攻擊——我們一直在等待一場網絡珍珠港事件。
But the Russians have always believed that the real value of cyber is psychological warfare and influence.
但是俄羅斯人始終認爲，網絡的真正價值在於心理方面的戰爭和影響力。
As a senior US intelligence figure recently told a private meeting of business and policy luminaries: What do we do if the key goal of cyber hackers now is not to steal things but undermine trust in things that guide our lives? Intelligence officials are particularly uneasy about the risk of an attack on the financial system, since this is a sector which only functions if there is trust — as the crisis of 2008 showed.
正如美國一名高級情報官員最近在一次商界和政界名流齊聚的私人會議上所說的那樣：如果現在網絡黑客的核心目標不再是偷東西、而是破壞我們對指引我們生活的東西的信任，我們怎麼辦？情報官員格外擔憂黑客會攻擊金融系統，因爲金融是一個只有在存在信任的情況下才能正常運行的領域——正如2008年金融危機所顯示的那樣。
American officials are trying to fight back.
美國官員正嘗試反擊。
Last weekend, for example, the DHS offered to provide cyber security assistance to state governments to help them protect the election.
例如，國土安全局近日表示願向各個州政府提供網絡安全協助，幫助各州保護大選免受網絡攻擊。
Two dozen states have accepted.
24個州接受了。
But the election is so close, and states so cash-strapped, that it is unclear how effective these defences will be.
但是大選日期近在咫尺，許多州又如此囊中羞澀，這些防禦措施的效果如何尚不清楚。
Bafflingly, the DHS has not designated the electoral register as critical infrastructure.
令人困惑的是，國土安全局並沒有把選民名冊定爲關鍵基礎設施。
It should do this now, so Federal funds can be released for the fight.
該部門現在應該這麼做，這樣才能讓聯邦資金得以被用於打贏這場仗。
The really big issue, though, is the psychological threat.
不過，真正要緊的問題是心理威脅。
Donald Trump has called for aggressive counter-attacks in cyber space to provide a display of strength.
唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)呼籲在網絡空間發動強硬反擊，讓對手知道厲害。
Separately, Mr Alperovitch thinks the US government needs to publicly declare that Russia is launching psychological attacks, in order to prepare the public.
此外，阿爾佩羅維奇認爲，美國政府需要公開宣佈俄羅斯正在發動心理攻擊，從而讓公衆做好心理準備。
In the cold war days, the state department had a department which countered Soviet propaganda, but then it was disbanded, he argues. They need to once again build a strategy for countering Russia’s aggressive influence operations.
在冷戰期間，美國國務院曾設有一個部門負責反擊蘇聯的宣傳，但後來解散了，他認爲，他們需要再次構建起一套戰略來對抗俄羅斯咄咄逼人的造勢活動。
The risk of any aggressive action is that it might launch bigger counter-attacks or spread public fear.
採取任何激進行動的風險是，可能引發更猛烈的反擊或在公衆中散播恐懼情緒。
American voters and politicians seem stuck in a nervous waiting game.
美國選民和政治人士似乎卡在了緊張的等待中進退兩難。
We had better hope that eventually a new form of cold war-style detente emerges in 21st-century cyber space, as it once did in the physical world.
我們最好希望，在21世紀的網絡空間中，也能出現一種新的休戰——就像曾經在現實世界中出現過的、爲冷戰畫上了句號的那種。
If not, business leaders need to look at the US election — and prepare for a world where digital trust is a new military plaything.
如果沒出現，那麼商界領袖需要關注美國大選，並準備好迎接這樣一個世界，在這個世界裏，數字空間裏的信任成爲新的被玩弄的對象。
