英國大選膠着引發英鎊波動

The most closely-fought UK general election in a generation is prompting signs of uncertainty in financial markets, with investors clamouring for insurance against sharp swings in the value of the pound.

一代人以來最難解難分的英國大選，正導致金融市場出現不確定性跡象，投資者紛紛尋求對英鎊匯率劇烈波動投保。

With less than a month before the election and little separating the two main parties in the polls, the currency market has registered a pronounced rise in short-term volatility, suggesting investors are preparing for elevated political uncertainty.

距離英國大選不到一個月之際，兩個主要政黨在民意調查中幾乎不相上下，造成外匯市場短期波動性明顯上升，投資者似乎在爲政治不確定性上升做準備。

Market measures of volatility of the pound against the euro and the dollar have reached levels not seen since the formation of the current coalition government. The currency market often sets the tone ahead of bonds and shares, as a forerunner of broader market turbulence, notably last year ahead of Scotland’s vote on independence. For now, UK government bonds and share prices have not been affected by the election but that may change as May 7 nears.

衡量英鎊兌歐元、以及英鎊兌美元匯率波動性的市場指標，已觸及自當前聯合政府成立以來未見的水平。作爲更廣泛市場動盪的先行指標，外匯市場往往先於債市和股市確定市場基調，比如在去年蘇格蘭獨立公投之前就是如此。目前，英國政府債券和股票價格還沒有受到大選影響，但隨着5月7日的臨近，這可能會發生變化。

“The UK political story has not really been priced in until now,” said Koon Chow, macro economics and foreign exchange strategist at Union Bancaire Privée. The last time there was such a spike in the cost of insuring against short-term volatility was in the run-up to the Scottish referendum, he added. “Since then, markets have been too sanguine about the political risks faced by the pound, and today we have learnt that they are rushing to catch up.”

瑞士聯合私立銀行(Union Bancaire Privée)宏觀經濟和外匯策略師Koon Chow表示：“此前英國政治狀況還沒有被市場真正消化。”他補充稱，上一次短期波動性保險成本如此飆升是在蘇格蘭獨立公投之前。“在那之後，市場對於英鎊面臨的政治風險一直過於樂觀，現在我們看到市場正迅速趕上。”

Opinion polls put the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck with no sign yet of UK prime minister David Cameron making the late breakthrough expected by Tory strategists. The latest Populus/Hanover election outcome predictor for the FT shows Labour edging ahead with 278 seats (up three) and the Conservatives on 270 (down four) in the House of Commons. Such a result would give neither party a majority.

在民調中，保守黨和工黨不分伯仲，迄今還沒有跡象表明，英國首相戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)像保守黨策略師預測的那樣在最後關頭取得突破。爲英國《金融時報》編制的最新Populus/Hanover選舉結果預測指標顯示，工黨稍稍領先，將在衆議院獲得278個席位（增加了3個），保守黨將獲得270個席位（減少了4個）。這樣的結果意味着兩黨都不會獲得多數席位。

Markets are weighing up the possibility of Mr Miliband entering Number 10 in some kind of informal deal with the Scottish National party, which has offered to support Labour on the condition that it abandons further austerity measures to balance Britain’s deficit, currently running at 5 per cent of GDP.

市場正衡量工黨領袖埃德•米利班德(Ed Miliband)可能通過與蘇格蘭民族黨(Scottish National party)的某種非正式協議入主唐寧街10號，蘇格蘭民族黨已提出將支持工黨，條件是工黨放棄旨在平衡英國赤字的進一步緊縮措施，目前英國預算赤字佔國內生產總值(GDP)的5%。