中國電動車產量新規引發過剩擔憂

New Chinese rules mandating a boost in electric vehicle production are raising fears of a glut of battery-powered cars that carmakers will be hard pressed to sell.

強制提高電動車產量的中國新規，正使人們擔心電動汽車供應過剩，汽車製造商難以出售。

Regulations adopted in September require EVs to account for up to 8 per cent of sales by 2020. But this far exceeds current demand in China, where electric vehicles accounted for just over 1 per cent of sales last year.

9月出臺的新規定意味着，到2020年電動車需要佔總銷量高達8%。但這遠遠超過了目前中國的需求，去年電動車佔中國汽車市場總銷量的1%多一點。

Now industry experts are voicing concerns that this will hit profits — and that some carmakers may not survive.

現在業內專家表示擔心，這將打擊利潤，某些汽車製造商甚至可能無法生存。

“There will be pain in a coming war of attrition,” said Michael Dunne, an analyst based in Hong Kong who believes the mountain of government-mandated EVs could spark a shakeout in the industry as companies lose money.

“即將到來的消耗戰將帶來痛苦，”常駐香港的分析師鄧凱(Michael Dunne)表示。他認爲，隨着企業陷入虧損，政府強制的電動車供應過剩可能引發一場業內洗牌。

The wealthier EV producers and those with access to state funds would remain, he said, “while the less well-endowed fall away”.

他說，財力比較雄厚以及能夠獲得國家資金的電動車生產企業將會留下來，“而實力不那麼強的企業會出局”。

Bernstein, the brokerage, said in a report last week that the new rules adopted in September would push car brands in China — including global groups such as VW and GM — to produce more than 2m EVs by 2020, compared with 336,000 passenger EVs sold in 2016.

經紀公司伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)上週在一份報告中表示，9月出臺的新規將推動在中國經營的汽車品牌——包括大衆(VW)和通用汽車(GM)等全球集團——到2020年生產超過200萬輛電動車，而2016年的電動乘用車銷量僅爲33.6萬輛。

Cool demand for battery-powered cars in China and government plans to end subsidies for battery cars could see EV makers end up losing an average of Rmb30,000 ($4,500) per car, they estimated. That totals $10bn in lost earnings in 2020 alone, and “a double-digit percentage profit impact” for most manufacturers, Bernstein said.

他們估計，中國市場對電池驅動汽車需求不振，而政府計劃結束對電動車的補貼，對生產企業而言可能意味着每輛電動車平均虧損3萬元人民幣（合4500美元）。伯恩斯坦表示，僅在2020年，這就相當於總共損失100億美元利潤，對多數製造商盈利的影響幅度達到“兩位數百分比”。

“Given most consumers remain unenthused by EV adoption, we worry that the [original equipment manufacturers] may need to discount EVs down to gasoline car prices to drive volumes,” it added.

“鑑於多數消費者對選用電動車仍然不積極，我們擔心OEM（原始設備製造商）可能需要對電動車打折，使其降至汽油動力汽車的價位，以推動銷量，”伯恩斯坦補充說。

Beijing targets have long created global overcapacity in sectors from steel to solar panels, hitting profits.

從鋼鐵到太陽能電池板，北京方面制定的目標往往造成全球產能過剩，影響利潤。

Matt Tsien, president of GM China, says he foresees “a dramatic ramp-up in terms of required volumes after the mandate comes into place”.

通用汽車中國公司總裁錢惠康(Matt Tsien)表示，他預計，“在新規實施後，產量要求將戲劇性提高”。

But he stopped short of predicting a glut. “I think that an issue that all OEMs are going to be working on is how quickly can we drive scale and the continued cost of electrification down as the volumes ramp up,” he said.

但他不願預測電動車過剩。“我認爲所有OEM廠商將要努力應對的問題是，隨着產量增長，我們能夠多快擴大規模，多快繼續壓低電氣化的成本，”他表示。

According to regulations published in September designed to promote EV production, carmakers will have to manufacture a certain number of EVs starting in 2019 to offset combustion engine cars they produce, or else buy credits. The rules won’t be enforced until 2020.

根據9月發佈的旨在促進電動車生產的法規，從2019年起，在華經營的汽車製造商將不得不製造一定數量的電動車，或者向其他企業購買積分，以抵消自己生產的內燃發動機汽車。這些規定從2018年起正式執行。

The new rules impose two sets of targets on the manufacturers, one which is a set of quotas for EV sales volumes and one for fuel economy compliance.

新規定對製造商實行兩套指標，一套是電動車銷量配額，另一套是燃油經濟性合規。

The former implies that 3-4 per cent of sales will need to be EVs by 2020. To also achieve fuel economy compliance, however, 7-8 per cent of their sales will need to be EVs by the same date, according to Bernstein.

前者意味着，到2020年，電動車銷量佔比將需要達到3%至4%。然而，據伯恩斯坦介紹，要同時滿足燃油經濟性合規要求，屆時電動車銷量佔比將需要達到7%至8%。

That’s up from more than 1 per cent last year.

相比之下去年的電動車銷量佔比只有1%多一點。

Bernstein estimates that, as a result of compliance, 2.4-2.7m new passenger EVs will be produced in China in 2020, implying an annual sales growth rate of 64-68 per cent.

伯恩斯坦估計，合規要求的結果是，2020年中國將生產240萬至270萬輛新的電動乘用車，這意味着年銷量增速要達到64%至68%。

That growth rate is higher even than the 62 per cent recorded in the 2015-16 period, when EV sales were starting from a lower base and pushed by massive state incentives.

這比2015-16年期間62%的增速（那時電動車銷量從較低基數開始增長，且受到國家激勵措施的推動）還要高。