美銀行信用卡貸款激增引發擔憂
US banks have ramped up lending to consumers through credit cards and overdrafts at the fastest pace since 2007, triggering concerns that they are taking on too much risk in a slowing economy.
美國的銀行正以2007年以來最快的速度通過信用卡和透支擴大消費信貸，這令外界擔心它們在放緩的經濟中承擔太多風險。
The industry has piled on about $18bn of card loans and other types of revolving credit within just three months, as consumers borrow more and banks battle for customers with air miles, cashback deals and other offers.
在短短3個月裏，該行業已累積約180億美元的信用卡貸款和其他形式的循環貸款，因消費者增加了借債，同時銀行通過獎勵飛機里程、返現和其他優惠爭奪客戶。
The surge in lending has come as economists expect the US election to create sufficient uncertainty to impede growth for the rest of the year, increasing the stakes for lenders at a time when the credit cycle appears to have passed a peak.
在貸款飆升之際，經濟學家預測，美國大選將產生巨大不確定性，會阻礙今年剩餘時間的經濟增長，這將在信貸週期似乎已過波峯之際加大銀行的風險。
Recently disclosed second-quarter results showed that credit card loans increased 10 per cent year-on-year at Wells Fargo, 12 per cent at Citigroup and 16 per cent at US Bank, according to Deutsche Bank research. Expansion was an especially aggressive 26 per cent at SunTrust, the $200bn Atlanta-based lender.
根據德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的研究，最近披露的第二季度財報顯示，富國銀行(Wells Fargo)、花旗集團(Citigroup)和美國合衆銀行(US Bank)的信用卡貸款分別同比增長10%、12%和16%。總部設在亞特蘭大、資產規模爲2000億美元的太陽信託銀行(SunTrust)的信用卡貸款增速尤爲迅猛，高達26%。
Across the US banking industry, credit card and other revolving loans rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.6 per cent in the second quarter to $685bn, according to Federal Reserve data.
根據美聯儲(Fed)的數據，今年第二季度整個美國銀行業信用卡和其他循環貸款增至6850億美元，經季節調整的年化增長率爲7.6%。
The credit card business remains among the most profitable in banking. Lenders can charge much higher interest rates — the US average is between 12 and 14 per cent — than for other types of credit, and borrower delinquencies are still low by historical standards.
信用卡業務仍是銀行業盈利最高的業務。銀行可以收取比其他類型貸款高得多的利息，美國平均爲12%至14%，同時借款者拖欠貸款的行爲仍處於歷史低位。
However, there are some early indications that the cycle is beginning to turn.
然而，一些早期跡象表明，信貸週期正開始轉向。
“In the present environment it’s probably a safe strategy, but as we saw with housing in 07/08 that environment can change very rapidly,” said Nancy Bush, banking analyst at Georgia-based NAB Research. “They need to be very careful.”
“在當前環境下，這可能是一種安全策略，但就像我們在2007年至2008年的住房市場看到的那樣，環境可能會迅速發生變化，”總部位於佐治亞州的NAB Research的銀行業分析師南希•布什(Nancy Bush)表示，“他們需要非常謹慎。”
Bob Hammer, the veteran credit-card consultant, said: “Times are pretty good right now, but it’s questionable how long it’s going to last”.
資深信用卡諮詢顧問鮑勃•漢莫(Bob Hammer)表示：“現在形勢非常好，但這將持續多長時間仍存在疑問。”
Synchrony Financial, the largest supplier of store-branded cards in the US, sent a shudder through the sector in June when it increased its forecast for credit losses.
今年6月，美國最大商店信用卡供應商Synchrony Financial上調了其信用卡損失預期，這令整個行業爲之一顫。
Several banks have since disclosed that they have boosted reserves for losses, although executives said this largely reflected expansion of their businesses rather than a deterioration in credit quality.
此後多家銀行公佈，它們已增加損失準備金，不過高管們表示，這主要反映了業務的擴張，而非信貸質量的惡化。
Capital One added $375m to its loan loss reserve for its domestic card business, according to Barclays, while JPMorgan Chase added a $250m loss allowance for its credit-card portfolio.
根據巴克萊(Barclays)的數據，Capital One將國內卡業務的貸款損失準備金增加了3.75億美元，摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)爲其信用卡業務增加了2.50億美元的損失準備金。
The largest US bank by assets has expanded in the past two or three years into what Marianne Lake, JPMorgan Chase chief financial officer, described as the “near prime space” — in essence, customers with lower credit scores.
摩根大通是美國資產排名第一的銀行，過去兩三年已將業務拓展到其首席財務官瑪麗安•雷克(Marianne Lake)所說的“次優空間”，即信貸評分較低的客戶。
Executives say that the lending push is justified as the consumers they target are in good financial shape, pointing to rising house prices and low unemployment.
高管們表示，這種貸款加快的勢頭是合理的，因爲他們瞄準的客戶處於良好的財務狀況，房地產價格在上漲而失業率較低。
“We’re growing our direct consumer lending portfolio at a very rapid pace,” said William Rogers, chairman and chief executive of SunTrust. “That is indeed helping to mitigate the effect of [pressure on profit margins] overall.”
“我們正以非常快的速度擴大我們的直接消費貸款業務，”太陽信託董事長兼首席執行官威廉•羅傑斯(William Rogers)表示，“這確實有利於減弱總體利潤率壓力。”
