經濟學家擔憂中國信貸增長
There is no question that China significantly increased the leverage in its economy to counter the global financial crisis. A surge in credit was the single most important part of the government's vaunted stimulus programme: new lending by state-owned banks from 2008-10 was about 60 percent of gross domestic product.
毫無疑問，爲了應對全球金融危機，中國大幅提高了經濟中的槓桿。信貸激增構成了政府高調刺激方案的最重要組成部分：2008年到2010年，國有銀行新增貸款約爲國內生產總值(GDP)的60%。Some economists say they are less concerned about how much leverage China has than at the speed of the rise in China's leverage.
一些經濟學家表示，相比中國的槓桿規模，他們更加擔憂的是中國槓桿增加的速度。UBS economist Wang Tao has noted that an increase of 40 percentage points in a country's credit-to-GDP ratio over five years correlates very well with financial crises. In China, there has been an increase of 40 percentage points in the past three years alone.
瑞銀(UBS)經濟學家汪濤指出，一個國家的信貸與GDP比率在五年之內增長40個百分點，通常與金融危機有很大關聯。而在中國，僅過去三年這一比率就增長了40個百分點。
This "needs to stop soon and reverse in the coming few years," she says. For the government to follow a path of sustainable growth, it should ensure that banking sector credit grows by less than nominal GDP, she adds.
她說："未來幾年，這種趨勢需要立即停止並有所逆轉。"她接着指出，政府如果要走上可持續發展道路，就應該確保銀行信貸增長低於名義GDP增速。Put another way, China still has scope to lever up more if it so chooses – but such a choice could lead to big trouble down the road.
換句話說，中國仍然有提高槓杆的空間，如果它要做如是選擇的話，但這樣的選擇可能會在未來帶來大麻煩。For much of this year, even as signs of an economic slowdown mounted, Beijing opted for the prudent course and continued its moderate monetary tightening, despite howls of protest from real estate developers and investors.
即使經濟放緩跡象增多，今年大部分時候中國政府還是走謹慎道路，繼續其適度緊縮的貨幣政策，儘管房地產開發商和投資者表達了強烈的不滿。But over the past month, it has again prodded banks to ramp up their lending, a move which is eerily reminiscent of the credit spree that it is just now coming down from.
但在過去的一個月，中國政府再次敦促銀行增加信貸，此舉令人恐懼地聯想到其剛剛走出的"信貸狂歡"。Worried by this possibility, economists have taken to reminding Beijing that it can easily afford a traditional fiscal boost (for example, government deficit spending on initiatives such as health and education) and that it must resist the easy solution of simply calling on the country's banks to pump out credit.
出於對這種可能性的擔憂，經濟學家提醒中國政府，完全可以採取傳統的財政刺激政策（比如政府在醫療和教育方面的赤字支出），而且，一定不能僅僅通過促使本國銀行增加信貸來解決問題。"China again has space for a forceful response if necessary, but, this time, on-budget fiscal stimulus should be the main line of defense," the International Monetary Fund has warned.
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)警示："中國仍然有在必要情況下采取有力應對措施的空間，但這一次，預算內的財政刺激舉措應該是主要的防護措施。"
