技術帶來的七大變化 Seven ways technology has changed us

It has become customary to talk of “technology” as if it were a special sector of the economy consisting of the manufacture of sophisticated electronic goods, the creation of software, and the provision of services reliant on information and communications technology.

如今人們習慣性地把“技術”說成一個特別的經濟部門，包含精密電子產品製造、軟件開發、以及提供依賴信息和通信技術的服務。

This is a ludicrously narrow definition. Every technique human beings have invented, from the stone axe onwards, is “technology”. The ability of humans to invent technologies is their defining characteristic. Furthermore, new general purpose technologies, such as the computer and the internet, have effects that fall far outside the technology sector, narrowly defined.

這是一種狹窄得離譜的定義。從石斧開始，人類發明的每一種方法都是“技術”。發明技術的能力是人類的本質特徵。此外，計算機和互聯網等新型通用技術的影響範圍遠大於狹義的技術領域。

We need to assess contemporary innovations in their broader context. Here are seven points about these changes.

我們需要在更大背景下評估當代創新。以下是有關這些變化的7點。

First, the penetration of recent innovations in communications technology has been astonishingly rapid. At the end of 2015, there were more than 7bn mobile phone subscriptions, a penetration rate of 97 per cent, up from around 10 per cent in 2000. Penetration of internet access grew from 7 per cent to 43 per cent over the same period. (See chart.)

首先，近期的通信技術創新滲透速度快得驚人。2015年末，移動手機訂戶超過了70億，滲透率達到97%，遠高於2000年的大約10%。同期互聯網接入的滲透率從7%升至43%。（見圖表）

Economically, this has led to the rise of ecommerce, the transformation of industries whose products can be converted into “bits" (music, film and news media, for example) and the rise of the “sharing economy”. Socially, it has altered human interactions. Politically, it has affected relationships between the rulers and the ruled.

在經濟層面，這導致電子商務崛起、產品能夠“比特化”（比如音樂、電影、新聞媒體）的行業發生轉變、“共享經濟”興起。在社會層面，這改變了人際交往。在政治層面，這影響了統治者和被統治者之間的關係。

Second, a substantial “digital divide” exists. In 2015, 81 per cent of households in the developed world had internet access, the proportion in all developing countries was 34 per cent and the proportion for the least developed countries was a mere 7 per cent.

第二，存在一道深深的“數字鴻溝”。2015年，發達國家81%的家庭能夠接入互聯網，而所有發展中國家的互聯網接入比例爲34%，最不發達國家的接入比例僅爲7%。

Information is power. It is not yet clear whether the rapid spread of access will prove more important than the persistent differences in its availability. But there is reason for optimism. The ability to leapfrog poor communication and financial networks has already transformed some developing countries.

信息就是力量。目前還不清楚，互聯網接入的迅速普及會不會比互聯網可用性方面的持久差異更重要。但我們有理由抱樂觀態度。越過糟糕的通信和金融網絡、實現跳躍式發展的能力已經轉變了一些發展中國家。

Third, the arrival of the internet and mobile phones has failed to generate a sustained upturn in the growth of productivity. This is shown best by the US, the leader in the development of the new technologies and, for more than a century, the world’s most productive and innovative large economy.

第三，互聯網和手機的普及並未帶來生產率增速的持續提高。美國就是最好的例證。美國是新技術發展的領導者，而且在一個多世紀期間一直是世界上生產率最高、最創新的經濟大國。

Output per hour worked in the US grew at rate of 3 per cent a year in the 10 years up to 1966, after which the growth rate declined, falling to just 1.2 per cent in the 10 years to the early 1980s. After the launch of the worldwide web, the moving average rose to 2.5 per cent in the 10 years to 2005. But it then fell to just 1 per cent in the decade to 2015.

在截至1966年的10年裏，美國的每小時工作產出每年增長3%，其後增長率下降，在截至上世紀80年代初的10年裏跌至1.2%。在萬維網問世後，該增長率在截至2005年的10年裏提高到2.5%。然後又在截至2015年的10年裏降至1%。

A decomposition of the sources of growth in productive capacity underlines the point. Over the 10 years up to and including 2015, the average growth of “total factor productivity” in the US — a measure of innovation — was only 0.3 per cent a year.

對生產力增長的來源進行解構突顯了這一點。在截至2015年底的10年裏，美國的“全要素生產率”（一種衡量創新的指標）平均每年只增長0.3%。

We should not be surprised. As Robert Gordon of Northwestern University argues, clean water, modern sewage, electricity, the telephone, the radio, the petroleum industry, the internal combustion engine, the motor car and the aeroplane — all innovations of the late 19th and early 20th centuries — were far more transformative than the information technologies of the past 75 years.

我們不應感到驚訝。正如美國西北大學(Northwestern University)的羅伯特戈登(Robert Gordon)所指出的，清潔水、現代下水道、電力、電話、收音機、石油行業、內燃機、汽車以及飛機都是19世紀末到20世紀初問世的創新，它們帶來的變革遠遠大於過去75年期間的信息技術。

Some argue, against this, that statisticians are failing to measure output correctly, partly by failing to capture free services, such as search, which generate vast unmeasured surplus value.

針對這一點，一些人主張，統計學家未能正確地衡量產出，部分原因是未能把搜索等免費服務計算在內，這些服務產生了未經測量的巨大剩餘價值。

Yet it is not at all clear why statisticians should have suddenly lost their ability to measure the impact of new technologies in the early 2000s. Again, most new technologies have also generated vast unmeasured surplus value. Think of the impact of electric light on the ability to study.

然而，我們不清楚爲何統計學家會在21世紀之初突然失去衡量新技術影響的能力。與上文闡述的道理一樣，大多數新技術都會產生未經測量的巨大剩餘價值。想想電燈對學習能力的影響吧。

Fourth, the new technologies have reinforced tendencies towards greater inequality, in at least three respects. One is the rise of “winner-takes-all” markets in which a few successful people, businesses and products dominate the world economy. Another is the rise of globalisation. A last is the explosion in financial trading and other rent-extracting financial activities.

第四，至少在三個方面，新技術加強了不平等擴大的趨勢。第一是“贏者通吃”市場的崛起——少數成功人士、企業和產品主導了世界經濟。第二是全球化的興起。第三是金融交易和其它抽租金融活動的爆炸式增長。

Some argue that the arrival of robots and artificial intelligence will transform labour markets, rendering even quite sophisticated skills redundant. This could, if true, generate divisions between the owners of the robots and the rest of the population as fundamental as those between landowners and landless labourers.

一些人主張，機器人和人工智能的出現將改變勞動力市場，使一些相當複雜的技能變得多餘。若果真如此，這可能會使機器人的主人與其他人之間出現根本鴻溝，就像當年的地主和無地勞動者之間的鴻溝那樣。

Sixth, the rise of global communications, of our reliance on cyberspace, of behemoth technology-enabled corporations and of “big data” raises difficult questions about privacy, national security, the ability to tax and, more broadly about the relationship between governments, corporations and individuals.

第六，全球化通信的興起、我們對網絡空間的依賴上升、巨型技術公司的崛起和“大數據”的發展給隱私、國家安全、徵稅能力，以及更廣義的政府、企業和個人之間的關係提出了許多棘手的問題。

Finally, the rise of pluralistic interactive media is affecting politics. Wider access to knowledge is a potential boon. But the new technologies can also be used to disseminate lies, hatred and stupidity.

最後，多元化的互動媒體的發展正在影響政治。更廣泛的獲取知識的途徑是一個潛在的福音。但新技術也可能被用於散播謊言、仇恨和愚昧。

Technologies are tools. They offer opportunities and dangers. What we make of them is, as always, up to us.

技術是工具。它們提供機會，也暗藏危險。古往今來，我們如何利用技術始終取決於我們自己。