汽車廠商將成蘋果谷歌的代工廠
FRANKFURT — WHETHER or not Apple’s secretive car project ever leads to an actual automobile, the technology company has already had a profound effect on the vehicle business.
法蘭克福——不管蘋果公司藏而不露的汽車研發項目未來是否真的會讓它生產某款汽車，這家科技公司都已經對汽車行業產生了深遠的影響。
The mere knowledge that Apple has a team of several hundred people working on car designs changed the conversation this week at the Frankfurt International Motor Show. Along with Google, Apple has focused the minds of auto executives on the challenge posed by new technologies that have the potential to disrupt traditional auto industry hierarchies.
僅僅是知道蘋果有一個幾百人的團隊在做汽車設計方面的研發，就足以改變人們在本週舉行的法蘭克福國際車展(Frankfurt International Motor Show )上談論的話題。蘋果，再加上谷歌，讓汽車公司的高管們把注意力都放在了新技術帶來的挑戰上，這些新技術有可能會打破汽車行業的傳統實力格局。
This year, “connectivity” has supplanted “horsepower” or “torque” as the prevailing buzzword in Frankfurt. The talk is of self-driving cars, battery-powered cars and information technology designed to link cars with data networks to make driving safer and more efficient.
今年，“連通性”已經取代“馬力“或“扭矩”，成爲法蘭克福車展的熱門詞彙。人們談論的是自駕車、電動汽車，以及將汽車和數據網絡連接起來以提高駕駛安全性和效率的信息技術。
Even though neither Apple nor Google is close to mass-producing a vehicle, nervousness about their intentions — which remain cloaked in mystery — is understandable.
雖說蘋果和谷歌都離批量生產汽車還很遠，但汽車行業依然爲兩家公司不爲外界所知的研發意圖而緊張，這不難理解。
As cars increasingly become rolling software platforms, Apple and Google have depths of tech expertise that the carmakers would have trouble duplicating. And those Silicon Valley companies have financial resources that dwarf those of even behemoth companies like Daimler and Volkswagen. Google, which began working on self-driving cars in 2009, is valued by the stock market at more than five times the worth of either of those carmakers. Apple is worth eight times as much. That gives them an advantage in a business that requires huge investment in research and development.
隨着汽車越來越多地成爲裝上車輪的軟件平臺，汽車製造商卻很難複製蘋果和谷歌所擁有的強大技術專長。而且即便是奔馳和大衆這樣的汽車業巨頭，其財力與這兩家硅谷公司相比，也會相形見絀。從2009年開始研發自駕車的谷歌，在股票市場上的估值已經是上述兩家汽車廠商中任一家的五倍還要多。蘋果的估值則是它們中任一家的八倍。在一個需要在研發上進行鉅額投入的行業裏，這讓谷歌和蘋果顯得更具優勢。
The main risk for carmakers is probably not so much that an Apple car would destroy Mercedes-Benz or BMW the way the iPhone gutted Nokia, the Finnish company that was once the world’s largest maker of mobile phones. Rather, the risk is that Apple and Google would turn the carmakers into mere hardware makers — and hog the profit.
汽車生廠商面臨的主要風險，也許並非蘋果汽車(Apple car)有可能會摧毀奔馳或寶馬汽車的市場，如同iPhone擊潰了曾經是世界第一大手機廠商的芬蘭公司諾基亞(Nokia)那樣。而是說，蘋果和谷歌有可能將汽車廠商變成純粹的硬件製造者，進而獨佔這個行業的利潤。
Carmakers say they are determined to resist that danger by maintaining control of the software that is proliferating inside vehicles.
汽車廠商們表示，他們決心對正在激增的汽車內置軟件保持掌控，以對抗這種風險。
“What is important for us is that the brain of the car, the operating system, is not iOS or Android or someone else but it’s our brain,” Dieter Zetsche, the chief executive of Daimler, the maker of Mercedes vehicles, told reporters at the car show. IOS is Apple’s operating system for mobile devices.
“對我們來說比較重要的是，作爲汽車大腦的操作系統不能是iOS、安卓或其他系統，它得是我們自己的，”奔馳汽車的製造商戴姆勒公司(Daimler)的首席執行官迪特·蔡澈(Dieter Zetsche)在車展上對記者表示。iOS是蘋果爲其移動設備研發的操作系統。
“We do not plan to become the Foxconn of Apple,” Mr. Zetsche said, referring to the Chinese company that manufactures iPhones.
“我們不打算做蘋果的富士康(Foxconn)，”蔡澈說道，他指的是爲蘋果生產iPhones的中國公司。
Even without competition from Apple and Google, the carmakers are under extreme pressure to change the way they build cars. Regulators in Europe and the United States are demanding that cars emit less carbon dioxide, a culprit in global warming. The only way the automakers can meet increasingly stringent emissions standards is by selling more hybrid vehicles, and eventually all-electric cars. Both technologies require more software than gasoline or diesel engines.
即便沒有來自蘋果和谷歌的競爭，汽車廠商們也面臨着極大的壓力，需要改變生產汽車的方式。歐洲和美國監管機構要求汽車廠商進一步降低汽車碳排放量，因爲汽車排放是導致全球變暖的原因之一。而滿足越來越嚴格的排放標準的唯一方式，就是銷售更多混合動力汽車，最終實現只銷售電動汽車。這兩種技術都更加依賴軟件研發，而非汽油或柴油發動機。
Technology that links cars to data networks, so-called connectivity, also plays a role in reducing emissions and satisfying regulators. Systems that help drivers quickly find a parking space or avoid traffic jams, besides being convenient, help limit unnecessary driving and save fuel. But the new technologies are expensive, and car buyers are not necessarily willing to pay. Electric cars account for a sliver of the market so far.
將汽車與數據網絡相連的技術，即所謂的連通性，對於實現更少碳排放和讓監管機構滿意，也很重要。幫助司機快速找到停車位或避開交通擁堵的系統，除了方便之外，也有助於減少駕駛時長和節省燃料。但新技術相當昂貴，汽車購買者未必願意爲之買單。目前電動汽車的銷售量只佔整個市場很小一部分。
Those pressures have been building for several years, but they have intensified since word leaked out early this year that Apple was studying whether to build a car.
對汽車廠商而言，這些壓力過去幾年一直在增加，但今年年初蘋果就是否生產汽車的問題進行研究的消息傳出後，他們的壓力更是瞬間加劇。
“What has been an evolution is going to be a revolution,” said Stephan Winkelmann, the chief executive of Lamborghini, the Italian maker of super sports cars that is part of the Volkswagen group.
“原先在不斷演進的過程，如今要成爲革命性鉅變了，”蘭博基尼(Lamborghini)首席執行官斯特凡·溫克爾曼(Stephan Winkelmann)說，這家意大利頂級跑車企業是大衆汽車集團的子公司。
“Starting from sustainability, going over to digitalization, and ending up at autonomous driving — these three big things are really something that is a game changer for the automotive industry,” Mr. Winkelmann said in an interview. “Everybody has to tackle these challenges.”
“從可持續性，到數字化，再到最終的自動駕駛，這是未來會真正改變汽車行業遊戲規則的三件大事，”溫克爾曼在接受採訪時說道。“所有汽車企業都必須應對這些挑戰。”
Volkswagen, previously regarded as a laggard in vehicle electrification, said in Frankfurt this week that it would introduce 20 new plug-in hybrid or all-electric models by 2020, and it introduced a battery-powered Porsche concept car. At the company’s preshow extravaganza for the media Monday night at a repurposed basketball arena, there was nary a mention of internal combustion. Instead, Martin Winterkorn, the Volkswagen chief executive, spoke of cars that would park themselves and eventually run completely on autopilot.
之前被認爲在汽車電氣化方面落後於其他公司的大衆集團，本週在法蘭克福推出了一款保時捷電動概念車，並表示至2020年大衆集團將陸續推出20款新的插電式混合動力或全電動車型。週一晚上，該集團在一個重新佈置的籃球館舉行了聲勢浩大的展前發佈會。在會上，無人提起內燃機之類的詞彙。大衆集團首席執行官文德恩(Martin Winterkorn)轉而談到了可以自動停車以及最終可以完全自動駕駛的汽車。
“By the end of this decade we will have transformed all of our new cars into smartphones on wheels,” he said.
“截至2020年，大衆所有新款車型都將轉變成帶輪子的智能手機，”他說。
It is not only the European carmakers closely watching Apple and Google. Anthony Foxx, the United States transportation secretary, in Frankfurt for a meeting on Thursday with his counterparts from other G7 nations, said conventional automakers were trying to roll out technology as fast as they can, while some in Silicon Valley were aiming to leap straight to self-driving cars.
不是隻有歐洲汽車廠商在密切關注蘋果和谷歌的動向。美國運輸部部長安東尼·福克斯(Anthony Foxx)週四在法蘭克福與來自其他G7國家的運輸交通部長召開會議。他表示，傳統汽車廠商正在儘可能快地推出新技術，而硅谷的科技公司則想一步到位地推出自動駕駛汽車。
“There is an interesting dialogue between Detroit and Silicon Valley on this,” Mr. Foxx said during a meeting with several reporters. “There is probably some tension there, but maybe that is good creative tension.”
“在這方面，底特律和硅谷之間形成了有趣的互動，”福克斯在會見幾位記者時講道。“他們之間可能存在一些緊張情緒，但或許這是有益創造性的緊張情緒。”
One of the main guessing games at the auto show was whether Apple or Google would ever build a car. Both companies have met with German car companies as well as suppliers. Google executives have said the company will not become a carmaker.
在車展上，大家猜測比較多的是一個問題是，蘋果或谷歌是否會生產汽車。兩家公司都和一些德國汽車公司和供應商見過面。谷歌的高管已經表示，它不會做汽車廠商。
“Google is not a car manufacturer and does not intend to become one,” John Krafcik, a former Ford and Hyundai executive who runs Google’s self-driving car program, said in Frankfurt.
“谷歌不是汽車製造商，也不打算成爲這樣的角色，”之前曾擔任福特(Ford)和現代(Hyundai)汽車公司高管、現爲谷歌自駕車項目負責人的約翰·克拉夫茨克(John Krafcik)在車展上表示。
But it was not clear yet whether he meant that Google would license self-driving technology to traditional carmakers, or use contract manufacturers to build a vehicle. A Google spokesman declined to elaborate.
但此話是否代表着谷歌會將其自駕車技術授權給傳統汽車廠商，或通過簽約汽車廠商生產汽車，還不清楚。一位谷歌發言人拒絕透露這方面的詳細信息。
Apple’s intentions are murkier. As is customary for Apple, the company has provided no information. But Timothy D. Cook, the Apple chief executive, reportedly visited a factory in Leipzig, Germany, last year where BMW manufactures the i3, an all-electric sedan with a carbon fiber body.
蘋果的意圖更加模糊。如其一貫作風，蘋果不曾透露過這方面的任何信息。但據說蘋果首席執行官蒂莫西·D·庫克(Timothy D. Cook)去年曾拜訪德國萊比錫市的一家工廠，那是寶馬公司生產擁有碳纖維車身的全電動小轎車寶馬i3的地方。
“We are not quite sure what Apple is prepared to do,” Friedrich Eichiner, the chief financial officer of BMW, said during a meeting with a group of reporters in Frankfurt. He said he thought Apple was still trying to understand the implications of getting into the car business.
“我們不太確定蘋果準備做什麼，”寶馬集團首席財務官弗里德里希·埃希納(Friedrich Eichiner)在法蘭克福接受記者羣訪時說。他說，他認爲蘋果還在努力弄清楚自己進入汽車行業有可能產生的結果。
“Financially they are very strong,” Mr. Eichiner said. “They could do it.”
“就財力而言，他們很強，”埃希納說。“生產汽車沒問題。”
Luca de Meo, head of sales and marketing at Audi, another Volkswagen unit, said it would be out of character for Apple not to build its own vehicle, if it decides to get into the car business. “The Apple style is the ability to do software and hardware at the same time,” Mr. de Meo said in an interview.
大衆集團另一子公司奧迪(Audi)的銷售與市場總監盧卡·德·梅奧(Luca de Meo)表示，如果蘋果決定進入汽車行業，不生產自己的汽車的做法不符合它一貫的風格。“蘋果的優勢就在於同時集成軟硬件的能力，”德·梅奧在接受採訪時講道。
The traditional carmakers’ big advantage is that they have already mastered the formidable complexity of manufacturing vehicles that are reliable, comfortable and safe. But it is becoming more feasible for a newcomer to outsource vehicle manufacturing the same way that Apple outsources production of iPhones. And the outsourcer wouldn’t necessarily be in China.
傳統汽車廠商的一大優勢是，他們已經掌握了生產可靠、安全和舒適的汽車所需的極其複雜的工藝。但是對於進入這一行業不久的企業來說，像蘋果外包iPhones的生產那樣將汽車生產業務外包出去，正在變得愈發可行。而汽車生產外包商不一定來自中國。
One company already working with Google is ZF, a large German auto components supplier that in May completed an acquisition of TRW, a company based in Michigan that provides auto electronics such as airbag systems. TRW has been working on sensors and other hardware for self-driving cars.
德國的大型汽車配件供應商ZF已經和谷歌展開合作，該公司在今年5月收購了位於密歇根的TRW，後者是一家生產安全氣囊裝置等汽車電子元件的企業，一直在研發和生產用於自駕車的傳感器和其他硬件。
Stefan Sommer, the chief executive of ZF, said the company would be able to produce a Google-branded car along with two or three other partners supplying components that ZF can’t, such as sheet metal body parts. “We would be a partner in that, for sure,” Mr. Sommer said in an interview.
ZF公司首席執行官斯特凡·佐默(Stefan Sommer)表示，只要有兩三個提供配件的合作企業與之相配合，該公司未來就可以生產谷歌牌汽車，合作企業可以爲之供應包括金屬板車身在內的ZF無法生產的汽車部件。“作爲合作伙伴，我們肯定會參與谷歌汽車的生產，”佐默在接受採訪時講。
But he said ZF could not work with Apple under the conditions it now imposes on suppliers. ZF sees itself as an innovator, not just a supplier. In Frankfurt, it displayed a car with electrically powered wheels that allow the car to turn 360 degrees almost on its own axis. ZF could not agree to demands by Apple for exclusive rights to such inventions, Mr. Sommer said.
但他也表示，ZF無法按照蘋果目前強加於其供應商的要求與之合作。因爲ZF將自身看作創新企業，而不只是供應商。在法蘭克福，該公司展示了一款配備電動車輪、幾乎可以360度自轉的汽車。佐默表示，ZF無法同意將這類創新技術獨家授權給蘋果。
While Apple and Google pose a threat to traditional automakers, the mood in Frankfurt is not gloomy. Not long ago, analysts were predicting that the auto industry faced long-term decline. Surveys showed that younger people were less interested than their parents in cars and driving. But if Apple and Google are interested in the car industry, auto executives reason, cars and driving must be cool again.
儘管蘋果和谷歌給傳統汽車廠商帶來了威脅，但法蘭克福車展上並非愁雲密佈。不久前，分析師們預測汽車業將面臨長期的業績下降。不少問卷調查也顯示，更年輕的一代對汽車和駕駛的興趣，比他們的父母輩一代要少。但汽車公司高管們推斷，如果蘋果和谷歌對汽車行業感興趣，汽車和駕駛肯定會再度變酷。
“It’s confirmation that we are working in a future industry,” said Ola , head of marketing and sales for Mercedes-Benz cars.
“這證明，我們從事的是一個擁有未來的行業，”奔馳的市場和銷售總監奧拉·凱倫紐斯(Ola )說。
Apple and Google have given the car industry a jolt. Now the question is whether carmakers can respond quickly enough.
蘋果和谷歌已經給汽車行業帶來衝擊。現在的問題是，汽車廠商們能否足夠快地予以應對。
And they are trying to raise their games. Daimler, for example, reorganized its factories around the world last year, eliminating plant managers and giving control over production to the executives in charge of different model lines. The change allowed Mercedes to introduce a new variant of its popular C-Class at four factories, on four continents, in six months — about half of what it would have taken earlier, said Markus , head of production at Mercedes.
他們正努力改善自身的現狀。比如，奔馳在去年重組了它分佈於全球的工廠，裁掉工廠經理，將生產的控制權交給負責各個產品線的高管。該公司的生產總監馬庫斯·舍費爾(Markus Sch昀 )表示，這讓他們可以在6個月內在位於4個大陸的4家工廠開工生產備受歡迎的C-Class的一個新款車型，而在此前這樣的工作大約需要花費一年的時間。
“This enables us to be more competitive in a world where new competitors come to the table,” Mr. Sch said.
“在一個有新競爭對手開始入場的世界裏，這會讓我們更具競爭力，”舍費爾說。
“We created the automobile,” he said, “and we will not be a hardware provider to somebody else.”
“我們發明了汽車，”他說，“我們不會淪爲其他企業的硬件供應商。”
