防務與經改 安倍魚與熊掌難得兼

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will this week push ahead with plans to loosen rules governing the military, even as analysts warn this could squander political capital needed to pursue tough economic reforms.

日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)本週將推行多項計劃，放寬有關軍事的法規——儘管分析師警告說此舉或耗盡安倍的政治資本，而這些政治資本又是他推行艱難的經濟改革所需的。

The military reform, a significant shift in Japan’s pacifist outlook, is just one piece of legislation scheduled for approval this summer.

這次軍事改革雖然只涉及要在今年夏天通過的一項立法，卻是對日本和平前景的一次重大轉變。

Parliament normally closes in June but, according to political analysts, Mr Abe is set to prolong the current session into August as he pursues economic reform. The summer of legislation will be crucial for the prime minister’s Abenomics stimulus, which is aimed at ending 20 years of on-and-off deflation and restoring the country to sustainable growth.

日本議會通常會在6月份閉會。然而根據政治分析人士的說法，由於要開展經濟改革，安倍會把目前的會期延長到8月份。對於安倍的“安倍經濟學”(Abenomics)經濟刺激舉措來說，今年夏天的立法至關重要。安倍推行安倍經濟學的目的，是爲了結束日本20年內不時出現的通縮，令日本經濟恢復可持續增長。

But if Mr Abe sacrifices too much political capital on the security changes, it could threaten his ability to pass structural economic reforms — the so-called “third arrow” of Abenomics.

然而，如果安倍犧牲太多政治資本用於防務改革，可能會威脅到安倍令結構性經濟改革舉措（即所謂安倍經濟學“第三隻箭”）在議會通過的能力。

“This could well lead to a 10 percentage point fall in the approval rating for the Abe cabinet,” said Takao Toshikawa, editor of the political newsletter Tokyo Insideline.

東京《內幕》(Insideline)雜誌主編歲川隆雄(Takao Toshikawa)表示：“這很可能導致安倍內閣的支持率下降10個百分點。”

The ruling Liberal Democratic party and its Komeito coalition partner signed off on the package of security bills on Monday. They are set for cabinet approval on Thursday and could reach parliament by Friday.

週一，日本執政黨自民黨(LDP)及其盟友公明黨(Komeito)簽署了一系列防務法案。這些法案將在週四由內閣審批通過，並可能在週五提交議會。

The security bills will put into effect a new US-Japan defence agreement and last summer’s reinterpretation of Japan’s pacifist constitution by Mr Abe. They are based on the principle that Japan can and should fight to protect its allies, rather than merely fend off direct attacks on its territory.

這些防務法案將落實美日新的防務協議，以及安倍去年夏天對日本和平憲法的重新解釋。它們的出發點，是日本能夠、也應該爲保護其盟國作戰，而不是僅僅抵禦對其領土的直接襲擊。

One bill creates a framework for Japan’s military to provide logistical support for multinational peacekeeping forces. Another revises ten different laws governing Japan’s military and its response to armed attacks.

其中一個法案爲日本軍方向多國維和部隊提供後勤支持劃定了框架。還有一個法案則對十條約束日本軍隊及其對武裝襲擊的迴應方式的法律做了修改。

The security changes are unpopular with the public. A recent poll for JNN showed 46 per cent of the public against the changes compared with 36 per cent in favour. That may get worse as the measures go through parliament.

公衆對這次防務改革並不歡迎。最近，日本新聞網(JNN)的一次民調顯示，46%的公衆反對這次改革，支持這次改革的則只有36%。隨着這些改革舉措進入議會討論階段，公衆的支持率可能會進一步下降。

“Opposition parties will likely leverage public sentiment to prolong the debate,” said Tobias Harris, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence.

特尼歐情報公司(Teneo Intelligence)分析師託拜厄斯•哈里斯(Tobias Harris)表示：“反對黨很可能會藉助公衆情緒，將爭論拖延下去。”

Mr Abe’s approval ratings are hovering above 50 per cent and he has generally moved cautiously on reforms in order to keep it there. He has tried to show the public he is prioritising the economy rather than his own goal of security and constitutional reform.

目前，安倍的支持率維持在50%以上。爲確保支持率不變，安倍在行動時通常會十分小心。他試圖向公衆證明，他把經濟擺在了首位，而不是自己在防務和憲法改革方面的目標。

But after a strong LDP performance in April’s local elections, Mr Abe has a breathing space before his own re-election as party leader in September, and then upper house elections next year. That makes it one of the best opportunities he will have to pass legislation to reform the economy.

不過，4月份自民黨在地方選舉中的出色表現，爲安倍贏得了一段喘息時間，9月份安倍纔會再次競選自民黨領導人，接着會在明年舉行衆議院選舉。這也成爲了安倍通過經濟改革立法的最佳機遇期之一。

Attacked in parliament for telling the US Congress he would pass the law this summer before submitting it to the legislature, Mr Abe said he had been signalling his intention since last year. “In no way is this contempt for parliament,” he said.

在日本議會，有人抨擊安倍不該在將法案提交立法機關之前，就在美國國會表示會通過這一法案。安倍表示，他從去年起就一直在表達他的意圖。他說：“這對議會沒有任何不敬之意。”

Mr Toshikawa said the prime minister would try to push a series of less popular economic measures, such as agricultural and labour market reform, through parliament during the next few months on top of the security legislation.

歲川隆雄表示，今後幾個月裏，除了防務方面的立法，安倍還會試圖向議會提出一系列不太受歡迎的經濟舉措提案，比如農業及就業市場改革舉措。

Mr Abe will hope the sense of economic momentum from a rising stock market sustains his support. He could then turn to more popular areas of policy in the autumn, such as measures to support families, and seek to rebuild his popularity with the public.

安倍希望，不斷攀升的股市催生的經濟樂觀情緒，能維持住他的支持率。接着，他可能會在秋天轉向更受歡迎的政策領域——比如支持家庭的舉措，並試圖重建在公衆中的人氣。