安倍推遲增稅 與央行行長現分歧

TOKYO — The Japanese prime minister and central bank governor have cooperated so closely over the last two years that their relationship is routinely likened to a three-legged race. Bound at the ankles and moving in sync, they have hustled toward their declared goal of ending economic stagnation.

東京——過去兩年，日本首相和央行行長進行了十分密切的合作，以至於他們的關係經常被人比作二人三腿賽跑。腳踝綁在一起、動作同步，一起衝向他們所宣稱的目標：結束經濟停滯的局面。

The governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, has taken such an outsize role in efforts to promote growth that some commentators slyly refer to Tokyo’s stimulus initiatives as “Kurodanomics.”

日本的中央銀行日本銀行(Bank of Japan)行長黑田東彥(Haruhiko Kuroda)在推動經濟增長方面扮演了異常重要的角色，有些評論人士甚至私下把日本政府的刺激舉措稱爲“黑田經濟學”(Kurodanomics)。

The description of Mr. Kuroda as the driving force behind Japan’s economic policy — known more commonly as Abenomics, after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — seemed apt last month, when he pledged to inject even more central bank money into the economy.

日本當前經濟政策更常見的提法是“安倍經濟學”(Abenomics)，以日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)的名字命名。將黑田東彥形容爲日本經濟政策背後推動力的說法，在上個月看來似乎恰如其分。當時，他承諾央行將爲日本經濟體系注入更多貨幣。

Yet the partners suddenly look out of step. Mr. Abe announced on Tuesday that he would postpone a planned tax increase that Mr. Kuroda had long supported. Higher taxes are vital to taming Japan’s national debt, Mr. Kuroda argues, and some are calling Mr. Abe’s reversal a stab in the back.

然而，這對夥伴突然開始顯得步調不一。安倍晉三週二宣佈，他將推遲實施一項增稅計劃，而黑田東彥一直對該計劃表示支持。黑田東彥表示，提高稅收對於縮小日本國債規模十分重要。一些人形容，安倍晉三的態度轉變就像一支傷人暗箭。

“Prime Minister Abe has betrayed Kuroda and the Bank of Japan and chosen victory over scruples,” Soichiro Tahara, a prominent political commentator and journalist, wrote on Wednesday in a piece posted on the website of the Asahi Weekly magazine. In addition to delaying the second and final phase of the tax increase by a year and a half, to April 2017, Mr. Abe called a snap election for next month. Analysts believe his Liberal Democratic Party will win.

“安倍晉三首相背叛了黑田東彥和日本銀行，選擇了勝利而非大義，”週三，著名政治評論家和記者田原總一朗(Soichiro Tahara)在發表於《朝日週刊》(Asahi Weekly)網站上的一篇文章中說。除了把增稅計劃的第二和最後階段推遲一年半，改期到2017年4月，安倍晉三還要求把選舉提前到下個月。分析人士認爲，他領導的自民黨(Liberal Democratic Party)將會獲勝。

Mr. Kuroda had lobbied hard for Mr. Abe to follow a long-agreed-to timetable to increase the national sales tax, which was meant to double to 10 percent, with the first step coming last April and the second next October. Many saw an implicit deal: Mr. Kuroda would print more money, supporting the economy, and Mr. Abe would raise taxes and tackle the debt.

各方很久之前就對提高日本消費稅的時間表達成了一致，爲了讓安倍晉三遵守時間表，黑田東彥極力遊說。按計劃，日本消費稅將增加一倍，提高到10%，政府在今年4月實施了第一步，並將於明年10月實施第二步。許多人原本認爲，二人已有默契：黑田東彥將通過印鈔來支持經濟，而安倍晉三則會提高稅收，從而縮減債務。

“Fiscal discipline is the responsibility of the government and Parliament, not the central bank,” Mr. Kuroda said at a news conference on Wednesday, seeking to dispel talk of a rift. Asked if he thought delaying the tax increase would have the intended effect of encouraging growth and inflation, he added, “There’s no point going into my personal views.”

“財政紀律是政府和國會的責任，不是央行的責任，”黑田東彥週三在新聞發佈會上說。他希望能消除不和傳聞。在被問到是否認爲推遲提高消費稅，能夠達到鼓勵增長和產生通貨膨脹的目的時，他說，“瞭解我的個人觀點沒有意義。”

Mr. Kuroda was speaking after the central bank’s policy committee voted to leave its monetary settings unchanged. The decision was universally expected, after a surprise move the last time the committee met, on Oct. 31, when it approved a proposal by Mr. Kuroda to spend trillions of more yen on government bonds and other assets. The initiative is intended to keep borrowing costs low and encourage spending and investment.

在黑田東彥發表此番言論之前，央行政策委員會投票決定，不對貨幣政策做任何調整。這個決定並不讓人意外，因爲10月31日，該委員會上次會晤時曾做出了出人意料的舉動。當時，它批准了黑田東彥的一項提議，決定再拿出數萬億日元用於購買政府債券和其他資產。此舉意在保持較低的借貸成本，鼓勵消費和投資。

Masamichi Adachi, a former central bank official who is now an economist at JPMorgan Chase, said it was inevitable that Mr. Abe’s wishes would prevail in any disagreement with Mr. Kuroda over policy. “Some people regarded it as a coalition, and in that sense he’s lost standing,” he said of Mr. Kuroda. “But he totally understands he’s under Abe, not an equal. At the end of the day, the B.O.J. has no independence from the Abe administration.”

前日本央行官員、摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)經濟學家足立正道(Masamichi Adachi)表示，當安倍晉三與黑田東彥在政策問題上出現分歧時，安倍晉三的願望必然會佔上風。“一些人認爲這是一種聯盟，從這種意義上來講，他的地位的確降低了，”他談論黑田東彥時說。“但他完全明白，他處於安倍晉三之下，兩人不是平起平坐。說到底，日本銀行並非獨立於安倍晉三政府。”

Mr. Kuroda was appointed the Bank of Japan’s governor by Mr. Abe last year. Before that, he built his career at the Ministry of Finance, which has pushed for years to have the sales tax raised. With government revenue constrained by weak growth and deflation, Japan’s debt has grown to the equivalent of two and a half years of economic output, by far the highest level in the developed world.

安倍晉三去年任命黑田東彥擔任日本銀行行長，此前他一直在日本財務省(Ministry of Finance)供職。財務省多年來一直在推動消費稅的上調。由於低增長和通貨緊縮限制了政府的收入，日本政府的債務規模已經達到了年經濟產出的2.5倍，遠超其他發達國家的債務水平。

Within the ministry, Mr. Kuroda was known as an advocate of aggressive stimulus measures, something that set him apart from more cautious colleagues. Yet compared with others in Mr. Abe’s inner circle, which includes proponents of all-out government spending financed by the central bank, he has been a relative budget hawk.

在財務省內部，黑田東彥以倡導積極的刺激舉措而著稱，與較爲謹慎的同事不同。但與安倍晉三核心圈內的其他人相比，黑田東彥在預算問題上相對比較強硬。核心圈子裏的一些成員，支持政府在央行的資助下，大舉花錢。

“Maybe it’s because he still carries some Finance Ministry DNA, but he’s aware that if the government loses all financial constraint, there’s a risk of a bond-market plunge,” said a former finance ministry official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid antagonizing his former colleague.

一名前財務省官員表示，“這或許是因爲他有一些財務省的DNA，但他知道，如果政府失去了所有的財政約束，債券市場就會有暴跌的風險。”爲了避免招致前同事的反感，這名官員要求匿名。

Mr. Kuroda said on Wednesday that he believed the Japanese economy was still fundamentally on a path to growth, despite government data released on Monday that showed that the country had slipped into recession in the third quarter.

黑田東彥週三表示，他認爲日本經濟基本上仍然處於增長期，儘管週一公佈的政府數據顯示，日本經濟第三季度陷入衰退。

Gross domestic product contracted at an annualized rate of 1.6 percent, the data showed. That followed a 7.3 percent plunge in the previous quarter, after the first stage of the sales tax increase. The blow to consumer spending from the increase led to the recession and persuaded Mr. Abe to delay the second phase.

數據顯示，日本年化國內生產總值(GDP)收縮1.6%。在實施了第一階段的增稅計劃後，第二季度的年化GDP下滑7.3%。增稅舉措給消費性支出造成衝擊，結果導致經濟衰退，促使安倍晉三推遲了第二階段的增稅計劃。

Mr. Kuroda now appears to be focused on holding Mr. Abe to a pledge to stick to the new 2017 timetable no matter what obstacles the economy throws up. The plan is to balance the budget, excluding interest payments on the debt, by 2020. Many economists say that is unrealistic, but Mr. Kuroda said on Wednesday that it was crucial to try.

黑田東彥目前似乎在全力確保安倍晉三信守承諾，無論經濟形勢中出現什麼阻礙，都要堅持新的2017時間表。日本政府計劃，在不計償付利息的情況下，到2020年實現預算平衡。很多經濟學家稱該計劃不現實，但黑田東彥在週三表示，試一試很重要。

“The government has laid out a medium-term fiscal consolidation plan and has set a clear target,” he said. “I hope the government follows this plan diligently and creates a sustainable fiscal structure.”

“政府已經公佈了中期財政整頓計劃，設定了明確的目標，”他說。“我希望政府能堅持這一計劃，樹立可持續的財政結構。”