市場是選美比賽 贏得難看的卡西歐

In the short run, the market is a beauty contest. In the long run, victory goes to those who can win ugly. The contrast is vivid in consumer electronics — an industry often defined by vanity.

短期而言，市場是選美比賽。長期而言，勝利屬於那些贏得難看的人。這種對比鮮明地體現在消費電子業中——這個行業的一個常見特點就是注重表面。

Take Casio. At first glance, it does not look pretty. Revenues have nearly halved from the 2008 peak to $3.1bn. Sales in developed markets have collapsed, with the domestic market faring worst: Japan now accounts for a third of the top line, down from half. Japanese consumer electronics companies have fared poorly in general. Casio seems to fit the pattern.

以卡西歐(Casio)爲例。乍看上去，卡西歐的表現並不靚麗。收入與2008年的峯值相比已近乎腰斬至31億美元。發達市場的銷售大幅下滑，其中日本國內市場的表現最爲糟糕：現在日本國內市場貢獻的收入只佔三分之一，以前則是一半。日本消費電子公司整體表現不佳。卡西歐似乎不能免俗。

Look again. Since 2008, costs have fallen more than revenues, allowing operating margins to expand by 2 percentage points, to 8 per cent. Net income has doubled. Meanwhile, the success of the company’s selfie cameras and G-Shock watch range have supported Asian revenues. Sales from the region match those from Japan and outstrip America and Europe combined. The share price is at a seven-year high.

再仔細看看。自2008年以來，卡西歐的成本降幅超過了收入的降幅，這使得其營業利潤率上升了2個百分點至8%。淨利潤則翻了一番。與此同時，該公司自拍相機和G-Shock手錶系列的成功支撐了亞洲市場的收入。亞洲市場的銷售額與日本國內市場相當，超過了美國和歐洲市場的總和。卡西歐的股價正處於7年高點。

What a contrast with Sharp — which is superficially better looking. Revenues have fallen only one-tenth since 2008 and its top line is nine times larger than Casio’s. The attraction ends there. Net income is down nine-tenths from the 2008 peak and net margins are all of 0.4 per cent. Last November, Casio’s market value overtook Sharp’s for the first time in two decades.

這與夏普(Sharp)形成了鮮明對比，後者表面上看起來要更爲靚麗。夏普的收入自2008年以來僅下降了十分之一，現在的收入是卡西歐的9倍。但它的引人之處也就這麼多了。夏普的淨利潤與2008年的峯值相比下降了十分之九，淨利潤率只有0.4%。去年11月，卡西歐的市值20年來首次超過夏普。

The companies’ differences are more than skin deep. Sharp operates in highly competitive and capital intensive businesses, including display and smartphones. But Casio’s successes are not only because of its nifty niche products. In 2011, the company jettisoned two divisions — phones and LCDs — after deeming the investment burden too great. The company shaved two-fifths from each of its development and capital expenditure bills. Sharp also has exposure to those areas, but has clung on for grim death.

兩家公司的差異不僅僅是表面看上去這麼簡單。夏普經營的是競爭激烈的資本密集型業務，包括顯示器和智能手機。而卡西歐的成功不僅僅是因爲其生產了時髦的利基產品。2011年，卡西歐在認定其電話機和液晶顯示器(LCD)部門投資負擔過大後剝離了這兩個部門。該公司還將研發和資本支出各削減了五分之二。夏普在這些領域也有敞口，但一直不願放棄。

So Casio’s most attractive feature is this: it is brave enough to make hard decisions.

所以說，卡西歐的最引人之處在於：敢於做出艱難的決定。