東方的夢想家 中國的超級工程

DALIAN — The plan here seems far-fetched — a $36 billion tunnel that would run twice the length of the one under the English Channel, and bore deep into one of Asia’s active earthquake zones. When completed, it would be the world’s longest underwater tunnel, creating a rail link between two northern port cities.

大連——這是個太過離奇的規劃——在亞洲最活躍的一個地震帶上，深挖一條比英吉利海峽海底隧道長出一倍、造價高達360億美元的隧道。建成後，它將成爲世界上最長的水下隧道，用鐵路連接中國北方兩座港口城市。

Throughout China, equally ambitious projects with multibillion-dollar price tags are already underway. The world’s largest bridge. The biggest airport. The longest gas pipeline. An $80 billion effort to divert water from the south of the country, where it is abundant, to a parched section of the north, along a route that covers more than 1,500 miles.

在中國各地，造價動輒數十、上百億美元、同樣雄心勃勃的項目已經上馬，比如世界最長的大橋、世界最大的機場以及世界最長的天然氣輸送管道。耗資800億美元的南水北調工程綿延1500英里。

Such enormous infrastructure projects are a Chinese tradition. From the Great Wall to the Grand Canal and the Three Gorges Dam, this nation for centuries has used colossal public-works projects to showcase its engineering prowess and project its economic might.

中國有築造此類巨型基建工程的傳統。從長城到大運河再到三峽大壩，數百年來，這個國家一直用龐大的公共建設項目展示着非凡的工程技能和經濟實力。

Now, as doubts emerge about the country’s three-decade boom, China’s leaders are moving even more aggressively, doubling down on mega infrastructure. In November, for instance, the powerful National Development and Reform Commission approved plans to spend nearly $115 billion on 21 supersize infrastructure projects, including new airports and high-speed rail lines

現在，隨着人們對中國持續了30年的繁榮心生疑慮，該國領導人的舉措反而變得愈發激進，把更多賭注投向了大型基礎設施。舉例來說，2014年11月，手握重權的國家發改委批覆了包括新機場和新高鐵在內的21個超大基建項目，總投資額接近1150億美元。

“China has always had this history of mega projects,” says Huang Yukon, an economist and senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think tank based in Washington. “It’s part of the blood, the culture, the nature of its society. To have an impact on the country, they’ve got to be big.”

“中國對大型項目的偏好由來已久，”經濟學家、卡內基國際和平研究院(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)高級研究員黃育川(Yukon Huang)說。“它是這個社會的血脈和文化的一部分，是骨子裏的東西。工程只有夠大，才能對這個國家有影響。”卡內基國際和平研究院是總部設在華盛頓的一家智庫。

Whether China really needs this much big infrastructure — or can even afford it — is a contentious issue.

至於中國是否真的需要——或者能否負擔得起——這麼多大型基礎設施，則是一個存在爭議的問題。

The infrastructure plans run counter to Beijing’s commitment to reduce its heavy reliance on government-led investment to fuel growth. And some economists worry that the country might eventually be mired in mega debt.

北京方面正致力於扭轉過度依賴政府主導型投資推動經濟增長的局面，建造大型基礎設施的計劃與這種努力背道而馳。此外，一些經濟學家擔心中國最終會爲鉅額債務所累。

According to China’s National Audit Office, local government debt alone stood at about $3.1 trillion in 2013, more than a third the size of the entire economy. The high level of debt, analysts warn, could stunt growth for a long time.

根據中國國家審計署的數據，2013年，僅是地方政府債務就已經高達3.1萬億美元，佔經濟總量的的三分之一強。分析人士警告稱，高企的債務水平可能會在很長一段時間內妨礙經濟的增長。

“People should be concerned because very few of these big projects generate cash,” said Victor Shih, a China specialist who teaches political economy at the University of California, San Diego.

“人們應該感到擔心，因爲這些大型項目中盈利的寥寥無幾，”在加州大學聖地亞哥分校(University of California, San Diego)教授政治經濟學的中國問題專家史宗瀚(Victor Shih)說。

And yet China’s leaders are so confident of the value and necessity of building on an epic scale that engineers are mapping out plans for decades to come.

但中國領導人堅信史詩般的大規模工程建設有其價值和必要性，工程師們正制定未來數十年的規劃。

Shanghai is considered a model, a spectacularly rich metropolis of 25 million residents. Undergirding the city is a patchwork of supersize infrastructure — huge airports, subway lines, sewage systems and power plants.

上海這個有2500萬居民、無比富庶的大都市被視爲典範。由大型機場、地鐵、污水處理系統、發電廠等超大規模的基礎設施構成的網絡，爲這座城市提供了有力的支撐。

In the city’s thriving financial center, workers are putting finishing touches on the Shanghai Tower, a $2.4 billion cloud-piercer that at 2,073 feet is the world’s second-tallest building. Only the Burj Khalifa in Dubai is taller, at 2,716 feet.

在該市欣欣向榮的金融中心，工人門正對上海中心大廈進行最後的修飾。這座大廈耗資24億美元，高2073英尺（632米），是世界第二高建築。排名世界第一的是迪拜的哈利法塔(Burj Khalifa)，高2716英尺。

Further east, the city is building the world’s largest playground, Shanghai Disney Resort, which when it opens around 2016 will be surrounded by a 225-acre Magic Kingdom-style park, a development expected to cost more than $5 billion. A city-owned company is helping finance the project.

再往東看，該市正建造世界最大的遊樂場——上海迪士尼樂園。等到2016年前後開業時，它會被面積爲225英畝的“魔法王國”主題公園環繞起來。該項目的總投資預計在50億美元以上。一家上海市屬國有企業爲其提供了一部分資金。

Shanghai can afford the huge price tags. The fast-growing city is a financial center and a major tourist destination.

上海負擔得起上述大手筆的投資。這座快速發展的城市既是金融中心，又是熱門旅遊勝地。

But other cities don’t necessarily have the means to pay for such huge infrastructure projects.

但其他城市就未必有辦法爲此類大型基建項目買單了。

In Tianjin, about 70 miles southeast of Beijing, the city has borrowed heavily to create what some have called a replica of New York City, with complexes modeled after Rockefeller Center and Lincoln Center. Today, though, the area is a virtual ghost town. Dozens of office towers and luxury developments sit empty, half completed.

爲了打造一些人所說的紐約的翻版，天津市大規模舉債，在北京東南約70公里處興建以洛克菲勒中心(Rockefeller Center)和林肯中心(Lincoln Center)爲模板的城市綜合體。現如今，這個地方實際已經成爲鬼城。數十棟寫字樓和豪華的住宅區空空如也，處於爛尾狀態。

And here in Dalian, a city of six million in the northeast, the proposed underwater rail tunnel to Yantai is just one piece of a master plan that includes a 163-mile urban transit system. Work is also underway on what the city says will be the world’s largest off-shore airport, a $4.3 billion development on an artificial island created with landfill, covering more than eight square miles.

而在大連這座有600萬人口的北方城市，擬議中的通往煙臺的水下鐵路隧道，只是一個宏大方案的組成部分，該方案中包括一個全長163英里的城市軌道交通系統。此外，大連還在建設號稱世界最大的海上機場。機場預計耗資43億美元，建在填海而成的人工島嶼上，面積超過8平方英里。

“It makes sense to accelerate infrastructure spending during a downturn, when capital and labor are underemployed,” says David Dollar, the former country director in China for the World Bank and now at the Brookings Institution in Washington. But “if the growth rate is propped up through building unnecessary infrastructure, eventually there could be a sharp slowdown that reveals that the infrastructure was really not needed at all.”

“在經濟衰退，資金和勞動力利用不充分時，加快基礎設施方面的支出合情合理，”目前供職於華盛頓布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)的世界銀行(World Bank)前中國局局長杜大偉(David Dollar)說。但“如果支撐增長率的是修建不必要的基礎設施，增長率最終會大幅放緩，暴露出相關基礎設施真的完全沒有必要”。

Many experts say such projects also exact a heavy toll on local communities and the environment, as builders displace people, clear forests, reroute rivers and erect dams.

許多專家表示，隨着建築商讓民衆搬遷、使河流改道、砍伐森林、修建大壩，這類項目也會嚴重影響當地的社區和環境。

In the northwest, in the city of Lanzhou, the local government has backed plans to flatten the tops of 700 low-level mountains to make way for a new business district, despite concerns about the damage to the local ecosystem. Dam-building has also wreaked havoc, creating water shortages, environmental damage and may have even helped set off earthquakes in southwest China, according to some scientists.

在地處西北的蘭州，儘管有人擔心會破壞當地的生態系統，當地政府依然支持了一項削平700座小山修建新商業區的計劃。一些科學家表示，修建大壩也會造成嚴重影響，導致用水短缺，環境破壞，甚至西南地區的地震可能也是它引起的。

“The perilous path is the notion you can control nature,” ” said Paul K. Gellert, a sociologist at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. “There will always be negative social and environmental consequences.”

“當你認爲人能控制自然時，就是走上了一條危險的路，”諾克斯維爾田納西大學(University of Tennessee)的社會學家保羅·K·蓋勒特(Paul K. Gellert)說。“對社會和環境勢必造成不利影響。”

As a one-party state controlled by the Communist Party, China can easily muster the political will and financial resources to undertake such huge projects. And for now, it is backing — and even encouraging — municipalities to think big.

作爲共產黨一黨執政的國家，中國很容易就能聚集起進行這種大項目所需的政治意志和財政資源。而且目前，中國支持甚至鼓勵地方往大了想。

“They have an authoritarian system. And so they can do all this without opposition — this is key,” says Gerardo del Cerro Santamaría, an expert on mega projects at Cooper Union in New York. “In the West, civil society participates, and in many cases, opposes big projects.”

“他們有一個威權主義制度。所以他們這麼做不會遭到任何反對，這一點很關鍵，”紐約庫珀聯盟學院(Cooper Union)研究大型項目的專家傑拉爾多·德切羅·聖瑪麗亞(Gerardo del Cerro Santamaría)說。“在西方，公民社會會參與，並且在很多情況下會反對大型項目。”

Proponents say mega projects can bring greater efficiencies. Big dams and wind farms can cut carbon emissions, while mass transit can help reduce oil consumption, thus delivering greener solutions.

支持者稱大型項目會帶來更高的效率。大型水壩和風力發電廠能減少碳排放，而大型運輸項目能有助於降低石油消耗，進而實現更環保的解決方案。

Other mega projects could bolster China’s position as a manufacturing and trading powerhouse. In November, the government said its freight rail link between eastern China and Spain had opened, allowing factory goods to reach Spain in just over 20 days. It is now the world’s longest rail journey, far surpassing the route of the famed Trans-Siberian Railway.

其他一些大型項目可能會鞏固中國作爲一個製造業和貿易大國的地位。去年11月，政府宣佈已開通了連接中國東部和西班牙的鐵路貨運線，出廠的商品只需20多天便可抵達西班牙。這是目前世界上最長的鐵路線，遠遠超過了大名鼎鼎的西伯利亞大鐵路(Trans-Siberian Railway)的里程。

China also sees hidden benefits in such projects, including the ability to gain new scientific and technical expertise.

中國也看到了這類項目隱藏的利益，包括能獲得科技領域新的專業知識。

As a result, bridge-building in China has become something akin to an Olympic event. In 2007, after China completed the longest sea-crossing bridge in Hangzhou, the nation has regularly broken records. China now claims the longest bridge of any kind, the highest bridge and, in 2011, a new successor to the longest sea-crossing bridge, 26.4 miles long, in the eastern city of Qingdao.

橋樑建設因此在中國成了奧運會比賽一般。2007年，杭州建成了當時最長的跨海大橋。此後，記錄在這個國家頻頻被打破。目前各種類型的橋樑的最長記錄都由中國保持，還有最高的橋樑，而2011年，東部城市青島的一座長達36.48公里的大橋，接過了最長跨海大橋的稱號。

“For China, a lot of this is about building a national identity. Mega projects are suited for that,” says Bent Flyvbjerg, an authority on mega projects who teaches at Oxford University. “It’s a lighthouse for all to see what the Chinese nation can do.”

“對中國來說，這麼做很大程度上和構建民族認同有關。大型項目和這一點是契合的，”在牛津大學(Oxford University)執教的本特·弗呂布耶格(Bent Flyvbjerg)說。弗呂布耶格是大型項目研究領域的權威。“這是一座燈塔，讓我們所有人看到中華民族的能力。”

It is the type of engineering expertise the government wants its state-owned enterprises to export — and that is already happening. Boston is buying subway cars from China. Argentina, Pakistan and Russia have asked China to upgrade their infrastructure. Last month, Chinese construction teams began work on an ambitious $50 billion canal across Nicaragua that could some day rival the Panama Canal.

這也是政府希望國有企業能輸出的工程領域的專業知識，而這一點已經實現了。波士頓正在從中國購買地鐵列車。阿根廷、巴基斯坦和俄羅斯已經請中國升級它們的基礎設施。上月，中國的施工隊在一條貫穿尼加拉瓜的運河工地開工。這個雄心勃勃的項目投資500億美元，有一天可能會與巴拿馬運河(Panama Canal)相匹敵。

“They have the idea that they’re going to be doing infrastructure for the rest of the world,” says Mr. Huang at the Carnegie Institute.

“他們認爲自己將會給全世界其他所有地方修建基礎設施，”卡內基國際和平研究院的黃育川說。

In doing so, China is pushing the boundaries of infrastructure-building, with ever bolder proposals. The Dalian tunnel looks small compared to the latest idea to build an “international railway” that would link China to the United States by burrowing under the Bering Strait and creating a tunnel between Russia and Alaska.

中國正在以此擴展基礎設施建設的疆土，提出越來越大膽的方案。最近，有人提出修建一條“跨國鐵路”，通過在俄羅斯和阿拉斯加之間的白令海峽海底挖一條隧道，將中國和美國連接起來。相比之下，大連這條隧道的規模就很小了。

“The technology is already there,” said Wang Mengshu, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and an adviser on the Dalian tunnel proposal. “Think about it. If we can build a railway to the North Pole, it would be convenient for us to go to the North Pole.”

“技術已經具備了，”中國工程院院士、大連隧道項目方案的顧問王夢恕說。“想想看，如果能修一條通向北極的鐵路，那我們去北極就方便了。”