韓國的新面孔與新機會

The victory of Moon Jae-in in South Korea’s presidential election was widely expected, but is no less welcome for that. He has a chance to stop the political rot in a country whose democratic development has not always kept pace with its remarkable economic growth.

文在寅(Moon Jae-in)在韓國總統大選中獲勝在外界普遍意料之中，但這個結果帶來的由衷欣喜並不因此而減損。他有機會止住韓國的政治潰爛——這個國家的民主進程有時未跟上其令人矚目的經濟增長。

The period running up to the election has shown Korea’s political weaknesses overcome by its strengths. The deep-rooted corruption in the nexus between politics and business was laid bare in a bribery scandal that eventually engulfed the country’s first female president, Park Geun-hye. Yet the system proved capable, on this occasion, of addressing the problem. The legislative and judicial branches of government managed to hold a corrupt executive to account. Ms Park was impeached in the national legislature and the decision upheld by Korea’s constitutional court.

大選之前的那段時期，是韓國的政治長處克服了其政治短處的證明。政商關係中根深蒂固的腐敗在一樁賄賂醜聞中暴露無遺，這樁醜聞最終吞噬韓國首位女總統朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)。然而在這件事中，該體制被證明有能力應對這個問題。韓國政治體制的立法和司法分支成功追究了腐敗行政分支的責任。朴槿惠在韓國國會遭到彈劾，韓國憲法法院做出支持這一決定的裁決。

The subsequent electoral victory for Mr Moon, a former human rights lawyer from the opposition Democratic party, promises a possibility for change that goes beyond simply electing another politician to continue the existing patterns of governance. Mr Moon has the chance to clean up Korea’s murky political culture, strengthen the norms of corporate governance, boost the productive potential of an underperforming economy, and even establish a position in foreign policy that gives Seoul its proper role in confronting the problems of North Korea.

後來文在寅在大選中獲勝，爲可能的改變帶來了希望，這種改變不僅僅是選舉出一位新的政客、繼續現有治理模式。文在寅來自韓國反對黨共同民主黨，曾是一位人權律師。他有機會整頓韓國渾濁的政治文化、加強公司治理標準、提升表現不佳的韓國經濟的生產率潛力，甚至確立一種外交政策立場，讓韓國在應對朝鮮問題方面發揮起應有的作用。

It is in the last of these issues, perhaps, where the greatest uncertainties and biggest risks lie. South Korea is caught between the two foreign policy hegemons of Asia — the US, whose influence has been waning but which nonetheless retains a strategic role, and China, which has become increasingly assertive in the region.

或許最大的不確定性和最大的風險在於最後一個問題。韓國被夾在亞洲外交政策兩個霸主之間：一個是美國，它的影響力在滑坡，但仍扮演着戰略角色；另一個是中國，該國在亞洲正變得越來越強硬。

Mr Moon should not be intimidated into breaking strong links with the US, particularly if he wants to play a greater role in dealing with North Korea. To the displeasure of Beijing, South Korea has started to deploy Thaad, a US-built missile defence shield that signals a willingness to deter aggression from Pyongyang. Mr Moon has said the issue needs to be looked at again. Pushing ahead with the system would send a useful signal that Seoul will not simply back down in the face of pressure from China.

文在寅不應因膽怯而背棄與美國的緊密關係，特別是如果他想在與朝鮮打交道時發揮更大作用。韓國已經開始部署末段高空區域防禦系統（THAAD，中文簡稱：薩德），令北京感到不悅。這個美國製造的導彈防禦系統表明，韓國決意通過威懾阻止來自平壤的侵略。文在寅已表示需要重新審視這個問題。推進該防禦系統將釋放一個有用信號：面對中國的壓力，首爾不會一味退讓。