特朗普和金正恩的危險較量

In 1950, a combination of ill-judged words in Washington and miscalculation in Pyongyang led to the outbreak of the Korean war. Now, as the world contemplates the prospect that another war might break out on the Korean peninsula, the danger is that governments in the US and North Korea will once again miscalculate — and slide into conflict.

1950年，華盛頓不明智的言論，加上平壤的錯誤判斷，導致了朝鮮戰爭的爆發。現在，全世界在考慮朝鮮半島爆發另一場戰爭的可能性，其危險在於美國和朝鮮政府將再次誤判，並陷入衝突。

Many historians trace the outbreak of the Korean war to a speech given by Dean Acheson at the National Press Club in Washington in January 1950. The US secretary of state spoke about America’s “defence perimeter” in Asia — and suggested that Korea lay beyond the perimeter. In Pyongyang, the leader of North Korea, Kim Il Sung, took note of the clear implication that the US would not defend South Korea. Five months later his armies poured across the 38th parallel and invaded the South. But Kim had miscalculated. The US did fight. The Korean war cost hundreds of thousands of lives, led to direct fighting between US and Chinese forces — and has never formally ended. To this day, peace in Korea is maintained by an armistice rather than a formal peace treaty.

許多歷史學家將朝鮮戰爭爆發的根源歸結於迪安?艾奇遜(Dean Acheson)在華盛頓全國新聞俱樂部(National Press Club)發表的一場講話。這位時任美國國務卿談到了美國在亞洲的“防衛圈”，並暗示朝鮮半島在該防衛圈之外。在平壤，朝鮮領導人金日成(Kim Il Sung)注意到了其明確含義——美國不會保衛韓國。5個月後，他的大軍跨過北緯38度線，入侵韓國。但金日成算錯了。美國出兵了。朝鮮戰爭犧牲了數十萬條生命，導致美中兩國軍隊直接開戰，而且從未正式結束。到目前爲止，朝鮮半島的和平是靠停戰，而不是一個正式的和平條約來維持的。

Where Acheson signalled indifference, President Donald Trump is signalling resolve — vowing that the US will stop North Korea’s nuclear programme and hinting heavily that he is prepared to take pre-emptive military action.

而艾奇遜當初表示不重視的地方，美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)正表示決心，他誓言美國將阻止朝鮮的核計劃，並強烈暗示自己準備採取先發制人的軍事行動。

But once again there is a distinct danger that North Korea will lash out unpredictably.

但一個明顯的危險也再次浮現：朝鮮將不可預見地發動攻擊。

The country’s leader Kim Jong Un, the grandson of Kim Il Sung, has embraced his forebear’s militarism, isolationism and paranoia. If the current Kim concludes that the US is indeed poised to attack his regime, he will be tempted to attack first. His incentive to move fast will only have been increased by stories in the media, that the US’s war plans involve an early attempt to kill the North Korean leadership.

朝鮮現在的領袖、金日成的孫子金正恩(Kim Jong Un)繼承了祖輩的軍國主義、孤立主義和偏執狂。如果金家當權者認爲美國確實準備攻擊他的政權，那麼他面臨的誘惑將是先下手爲強。有媒體報道稱，美國的戰爭計劃涉及在開戰之初就幹掉朝鮮領導層，這類報道只會增加他趕緊動手的動機。

North Korea’s military doctrine, as expressed in recent exercises, envisages the first use of nuclear weapons to ward off defeat or destruction. Jeffrey Lewis, an academic expert, wrote recently in Foreign Policy: “Kim’s strategy depends on using nuclear weapons early — before the United States can kill him or special forces can find his missile units?.?.?.?He has to go first, if he is to go at all.”

正如近期演練所表明的那樣，朝鮮軍事學說的設想是率先使用核武器以防戰敗或被摧毀。學術專家傑弗裏?路易斯(Jeffrey Lewis)最近在《外交政策》(Foreign Policy)中寫道：“金正恩的戰略依賴儘早使用核武器——在美國能殺死他，或特種部隊可以找到他的導彈部隊之前……他不得不先下手，如果他還想下手的話。”

Although North Korea has not yet developed a nuclear missile that can hit the west coast of the US, it may well have nuclear-capable missiles that could hit South Korea or Japan. The South Korean capital, Seoul — which is just 35 miles from the North Korean border — is definitely vulnerable to a devastating barrage of conventional artillery. And Japan and South Korea are very worried by North Korea’s chemical weapons.

雖然朝鮮還沒有開發出能夠打到美國西海岸的核導彈，但它很可能擁有能打到韓國或日本的核導彈。韓國首都首爾距韓朝邊境只有35英里，對常規火炮的猛烈炮火都很脆弱。日韓還極爲擔心朝鮮的化學武器。

Mr Trump’s heavy hints that the US is considering an attack on North Korea are designed to put pressure on China to “deliver” its client state on the Korean peninsula. This might work. The Chinese government is openly alarmed by events in North Korea and may pressurise Pyongyang much more heavily. It is also possible that the Kim regime is more intimidated than its outward swagger suggests and could yet freeze its nuclear programme.

特朗普強烈暗示美國之所以考慮攻擊朝鮮，是爲了施壓中國“管好”其在朝鮮半島的附庸國。這招或許有用。中國政府對朝鮮的事態公開表示震驚，可能對平壤施加大得多的壓力。另一個可能是，金家政權並不像其表面那樣張狂，他們其實更爲恐慌，並可能凍結其核武計劃。

But while it is certainly conceivable that the Trump administration’s bellicose strategy could deliver, it is more likely that North Korea will not back down — and that the Trump strategy will therefore fail. In that case, the US president is faced with a dilemma. Does Mr Trump’s “very powerful armada” steam away from the Korean peninsula, with its mission unaccomplished? Can the administration present an intensification of economic sanctions, possibly in conjunction with China, as the very tough action that it has promised?

不過，儘管可以想象特朗普政府的強悍戰略可能結出果實，但更有可能的是朝鮮不會退縮，這樣一來特朗普的戰略將失敗。在這種情況下，美國總統將面臨兩難局面。特朗普“非常強大的無敵艦隊”會不會沒有完成任務就離開朝鮮半島海域？特朗普政府會不會收緊對朝鮮的——可能與中國一道——經濟制裁，並將其說成是它曾承諾的嚴厲行動？

Mr Trump is capable of shameless switches in rhetoric and policy. So it is certainly possible that he will simply back down on North Korea, or will embrace the status quo as the dramatic change that he has been seeking all along.

特朗普有本事不知羞恥地轉變言論和政策。所以他當然可能會在朝鮮問題上不了了之，或者把現狀包裝爲他一直在尋求的戲劇性變化。

However, it is also possible that Mr Trump has convinced himself that a first strike on North Korea is a workable option. Any such conclusion would fly in the face of standard military advice, which holds that it is impossible to “take out” the North Korean nuclear programme with a single wave of attacks and that therefore, following any such assault, South Korea, Japan and US bases in the region, would be exposed to retaliation.

不過，也有可能特朗普已確信，對朝鮮進行先發制人打擊是一個可行選擇。這類結論都與主流軍事建議不符，即一波攻擊不可能“摧毀”朝鮮核武計劃，因此在發動此類攻擊後，韓國、日本以及美國在地區的基地可能遭到報復。

The US military is well aware of the risks entailed by a first strike on North Korea. So it is encouraging to recall that General HR McMaster, Mr Trump’s national security adviser, has written a book lambasting US generals for not giving frank advice to politicians during the Vietnam war.

美國軍方非常清楚對朝鮮發動先發制人打擊的風險。因此令人鼓舞的是，特朗普的國家安全顧問、陸軍中將赫伯特?雷蒙德?麥克馬斯特(HR McMaster)曾撰寫著作，抨擊一衆美國將領在越戰期間沒有向政客提供坦率的建議。

Set against that is the danger that Mr Trump — after a chaotic start to his presidency — has concluded that military action is the key to the “winning” image that he promised his voters. The president lapped up the bipartisan applause that he got for bombing Syria. He dropped a huge conventional bomb on Afghanistan shortly afterwards and his son, Donald junior, tweeted his exultation — complete with an emoji of a bomb.

在此背景下，危險在於特朗普——經過總統任期之初的混亂後——已得出結論，軍事行動是他向選民承諾的“獲勝”形象的關鍵。這位總統欣然接受了兩黨對他導彈襲擊敘利亞的讚許。不久之後，他又在阿富汗投下一枚巨大的常規炸彈，而他的兒子小唐納德(Donald Jr)在Twitter上表達了自己的狂喜，結尾還用了一個炸彈表情符號。

There are members of the president’s inner circle who do indeed believe that the Trump administration is seriously contemplating a “first strike” on North Korea. But if Kim Jong Un has drawn the same conclusion — he may reach for the nuclear trigger first.

美國總統核心圈子裏有成員確實相信，特朗普政府正在認真考慮對朝鮮進行“先發制人打擊”。但如果金正恩也得出相同結論，他的手可能會先伸向核按鈕。