特朗普迎來選舉決戰 最後一搏
It is fitting that a man who lost so much money in the casino business will meet his final showdown in Las Vegas.
對一個在賭場生意上虧掉很多錢的人來說，在拉斯維加斯迎來最後的決戰是恰當的。
At this point — Donald Trump’s third and final televised debate with Hillary Clinton on Wednesday — the odds are stacked against him.
就目前而言——唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)將於本週三（北京時間週四）與希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)進行第三輪、也是最後一輪的電視辯論——形勢對特朗普不利。
Having squandered his near parity with Mrs Clinton in September, Mr Trump has launched a breathtaking electoral blitzkrieg.
特朗普沒有把握住今年9月與希拉里幾乎勢均力敵的機會，但他已經發起了驚人的選舉閃電戰。
Is it the last gamble of an undisciplined narcissist? Or does scorched-earth Mr Trump pose a threat to US democracy?
這是一位不守規矩的自戀狂的最後一搏？抑或是採取焦土策略的特朗普對美國民主構成了威脅？
Anyone concerned about America’s future role in the world should be relieved Mr Trump is the challenger.
任何關心美國未來在世界的角色的人都應該感到欣慰的是，特朗普是挑戰者。
Imagine the state of the race were he capable of staying on message.
如果他能夠做到有的放矢，想象現在選情會是什麼樣子吧。
Instead of denigrating the women who have made allegations of sexual misconduct against him, Mr Trump would be focusing on his case for Americanism versus Mrs Clinton’s globalism.
特朗普會着重闡述支持美國主義的理由，來對決希拉里的全球主義，而不是貶低那些對他提出性騷擾指控的女性。
He might have a serious chance of winning.
那麼他勝算可能很大。
Those who think Mr Trump owes his likely defeat to his brand of nationalist populism should beware of drawing hasty conclusions.
那些認爲特朗普因民族民粹主義標籤而可能敗選的人別急着下結論。
The chief obstacle to Mr Trump’s victory is his character.
特朗普取勝的主要障礙是他的性格，
He just cannot help himself.
他只是剋制不住自己。
His advisers have pleaded with him to stay focused on the main themes.
他的顧問們請求他緊緊圍繞主要議題。
The Trump campaign’s strategy is to suppress turnout for Mrs Clinton by depicting her as a creature of internationalist corporate elites.
特朗普團隊的策略是將希拉里刻畫爲國際主義企業精英的傀儡，從而拉低她的支持率。
The campaign’s other plank is to boost Mr Trump’s turnout by making the case that only a renegade outsider can fix a corrupt Washington.
特朗普團隊的其他策略是通過闡明只有叛逆的局外人才能解決華盛頓的腐敗問題，從而提升特朗普的支持率。
It is a straightforward argument.
這種觀點簡單直接。
But Mr Trump is unable to stick to it for more than a few minutes.
但特朗普對這種觀點連幾分鐘也堅持不了。
Invariably he gets drawn into horrifying tirades against his female accusers.
他總是令人震驚地長篇累牘地攻擊指控他性騷擾的女性。
Believe me, she would not have been my first choice, he said of one alleged victim.
他在談及一位據稱遭受他侵害的女性說道：相信我，她不會是我的第一選擇。
As a result, he has lost the support of his party.
結果是，他失去了共和黨黨內的支持。
For the first time, the Republican National Committee is spending zero dollars on television advertising for the party’s White House nominee, according to Politico.
據Politico表示，美國共和黨全國委員會(Republican National Committee)首次沒有爲該黨總統候選人的電視廣告出一分錢。
Instead, the party’s resources are going to congressional races.
共和黨把資源投向了國會選舉。
Likewise, its leaders have broken precedent by dissociating from their presidential candidate.
同樣，該黨領導人史無前例地與他們的總統候選人保持距離。
Most Republicans acquiesced with Mr Trump America first message.
大多數共和黨人暗中同意特朗普傳達的美國優先論。
They also shared his revilement of Mrs Clinton — as most still do.
他們也認同特朗普對希拉里的抨擊——大多數人仍在繼續抨擊。
They even tolerated the wall with Mexico.
他們甚至容忍特朗普提出的在美墨邊境修建隔離牆的主張。
What caused Republicans to un-endorse Mr Trump in the past week was the way in which he talks about women.
在過去一週讓共和黨人不再爲特朗普背書的是他談論女性的方式。
Yet his official message is also veering into fantastic self-parody.
然而，特朗普傳達出的正式信息也在轉向奇特的自我調侃。
There is a powerful case to be made that Mrs Clinton stands for business as usual.
我們完全有理由說，希拉里像往常一樣代表企業利益。
Most Americans do not like the direction in which their country is headed.
大多數美國人不喜歡美國的走向。
Most distrust Mrs Clinton.
大多數人不信任希拉里。
Even now, after all that has happened, Mr Trump still attracts the support of about 40 per cent of likely voters.
即便在發生這麼多事情之後，特朗普仍吸引了大約40%的潛在選民的支持。
Mrs Clinton’s lead is between five and nine percentage points.
希拉里領先5到9個百分點。
A cardboard cut-out might have given her a run for her money.
一個硬紙板剪成的希拉里圖片表明她難以輕鬆獲勝，
Mr Trump is hell-bent on playing a real live monster.
而特朗普鐵了心要扮演一個真正的怪物。
His latest conspiracy theory could have been lifted from the Protocols of the Elders of Zion — an early 20th century forgery that stirred up anti-Semitic hatred.
他最近提出的陰謀論可能模仿《錫安長老會紀要》(The Protocols of the Elders of Zion)——那是20世紀初的僞造之作，它激發了對猶太人的仇恨。
It is one thing to say that Mrs Clinton is cosy with the elites who have rigged the game in their favour.
說希拉里與操縱大選的精英們關係密切是一回事。
There is plenty of truth to that.
這在很大程度上是真的。
It is preposterous to claim she plots secretly with global bankers to rob America of its sovereignty.
但宣稱希拉里與全球銀行家密謀剝奪美國的主權地位就很荒唐了。
In Mr Trump’s paranoid imaginings, the Clintons’ co-conspirators include the Republican establishment, corporate America, neoconservatives and Pope Francis.
在特朗普的偏執型妄想中，希拉里的合謀對象包括共和黨建制派、美國企業、新保守主義者以及教皇方濟各(Pope Francis)。
It must be a huge meeting room.
會議室必須非常大才能容納下這麼多人。
What will the next three weeks look like? Mr Trump’s only sliver of hope lies in an improbable string of accidents that would derail Mrs Clinton’s campaign.
接下來3周的情況如何？特朗普的唯一一線希望在於發生一系列讓希拉里的競選脫軌的事件，這基本上不太可能。
This might include a serious health scare.
這些事件可能包括希拉里出現嚴重的健康問題。
If she were to collapse again in public, as she did with pneumonia last month, it would revive doubts about her stamina.
如果希拉里再次當衆摔倒——就像她上月因肺炎而摔倒一樣——人們就會對她的精力產生懷疑。
Mr Trump has laid the ground for this.
特朗普已經爲此做了鋪墊。
On Saturday he said they should both take drugs tests before the final debate.
上週末，特朗普說，他們在最後一場辯論之前應該進行毒品測試。
Likewise, if there were a Paris or Nice-scale Islamist terrorist attack in the US, it might panic swing voters into the arms of the strongman.
同樣，如果美國發生巴黎或尼斯那種規模的伊斯蘭恐怖襲擊活動，選民們就會驚慌失措地轉向支持強人政治。
Or if WikiLeaks revealed a bang-to-rights case of the Clintons taking money for political favours, it would boost Mr Trump’s global conspiracy.
或者如果維基解密(WikiLeaks)證據確鑿地曝出希拉里接受政治獻金的新聞，就會支持特朗普的全球陰謀論。
Even these may not be enough.
發生這些事件可能還不夠。
The one thing that is theoretically within Mr Trump’s control is that which is least likely to happen — running a stable campaign that conveys his fitness to govern.
就理論而言，特朗普能夠控制的一件事情是，按部就班地競選，傳遞只有他才適合治理這個國家的信息——但這也是最不可能發生的。
There is a higher chance of Mrs Clinton hosting The Apprentice.
相比之下，希拉里主持《飛黃騰達》(The Apprentice，又譯《學徒》)的可能性還更大一些。
Yet little comfort should be drawn from his likely demise.
然而，特朗普的可能出局應該不會帶來多少慰藉。
At some point a more self-possessed version of Mr Trump might pick up the baton.
在某個時候，一個更有自制力的特朗普可能會撿起指揮棒。
In the meantime, he is unleashing demons.
與此同時，特朗普正在放出魔鬼。
Their big victim is the Republican party.
共和黨深受其害。
Mr Trump has exposed a weak establishment that no longer leads its rank and file, but is terrified of following it.
特朗普讓人們看到一個疲弱的建制派，他們不再引領基層黨員，而是害怕貼近基層。
The Republican Humpty Dumpty is in pieces.
笨拙臃腫的共和黨成了一盤散沙。
He has also opened up cracks in US democracy.
特朗普也讓美國民主產生裂痕。
By predicting a rigged election, Mr Trump has sown doubts about the whole system.
特朗普預測選舉受到操縱，從而讓人們對整個體系產生懷疑。
It is a habit Mr Trump perfected with his casinos.
特朗普在他的賭場上完善了這一習慣。
He racks up huge losses.
他遭受鉅虧。
Everyone else is stuck with the bill.
其他所有人都不得不支付賬單。
