選舉年中段 特朗普式反恐不可取

The deadliest mass shooting in US history has fallen, whether by chance or design, in the middle of the most volatile and divisive election year in living memory. United as they are in outrage, Americans are bitterly divided in their view of the required response.

無論是偶然還是蓄意策劃，美國曆史上最血腥的大規模槍擊事件偏偏發生在人們記憶中最動盪最分裂的選舉年中段。在一致表示憤怒的同時，美國人在應該做出什麼迴應的問題上看法嚴重分歧。

Many Democrats hold that stricter gun control would help to prevent deranged killers, whatever their ideological bent, from accessing the weapons necessary to carry out atrocities. On the Republican right and in some other circles, there is an alarming propensity to view this crime through the prism of Islamophobia, even though it remains unclear what precisely drove the 29-year-old lone gunman, Omar Mateen, to slaughter more than 50 people at a gay nightclub in Orlando.

許多民主黨人認爲，更嚴格的槍支管制將有助於防止瘋狂的殺手（無論他們有怎樣的意識形態傾向）獲得實施暴行所需的武器。在共和黨右翼和其他一些圈子裏，存在一個令人震驚的傾向，那就是透過伊斯蘭恐懼症的棱鏡來看待這起罪案，即便尚不清楚究竟是什麼原因，驅使29歲的獨狼槍手奧馬爾•馬丁(Omar Mateen)在奧蘭多一個同性戀夜總會殺戮49人。

President Barack Obama has described the shootings as both an act of terror and a hate crime, the latter because lesbians and gays were targeted. There are also obvious echoes of the attack last year at the Bataclan theatre in Paris, where an organised Isis cell killed 89 people and injured many more. As well as various leads pointing to the possibility that Mateen was inspired by Isis, there are sufficient similarities between the Orlando and Paris attacks to warrant investigation.

美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)形容這起槍擊案既是恐怖行爲，也是仇恨犯罪；說它是仇恨犯罪，是因爲本案的殺戮對象是男女同性戀者。這起槍擊案也明顯讓人回想到去年巴黎巴塔克蘭劇院(Bataclan)恐襲；在那次恐襲中，一個有組織的ISIS恐怖小組殺死了89人，還有更多人受傷。除了各種線索指向馬丁可能受到ISIS啓發以外，奧蘭多和巴黎恐襲之間還存在足夠多的相似之處，值得好好調查。

But the events at Orlando are also gruesomely reminiscent of other high-casualty mass shootings in the US carried out by lone gunmen. The warped motives of these individual mass murderers will always be hard to understand. One thing common to all of them is the ease with which they have accessed heavy automatic weapons.

但是，奧蘭多槍擊事件也可怕地令人讓人聯想到美國發生的其他由單人槍手實施的大規模血腥槍擊。這些獨自行動的殺戮者的病態動機總是很難理解的。唯一的共同點是：他們都輕易獲得了重型自動武器。

This latest tragedy is one that cuts uniquely across the most polarising issues in America today — gun control, terrorism and gay rights. For this reason, politicians will be tempted to exploit it for partisan advantage. Even by his own standards Donald Trump’s attempt to capitalise was disgraceful. Before the blood had even dried at the Pulse nightclub, the presumptive Republican nominee was issuing self-aggrandising tweets, making reference to his proposals to ban Muslims from entering the US.

這起最新的悲劇有一個獨特之處，那就是它貫穿了當今美國觀點最極化的幾個問題：槍支管制、恐怖主義和同性戀權利。由於這個原因，政治人士將忍不住利用這件事做文章，爲黨派利益服務。即使按照他自己的標準，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)利用這起事件的企圖也是可恥的。甚至在脈動(Pulse)夜總會的血跡未乾之前，共和黨的這位推定候選人就在Twitter上發帖自我吹捧，提到他禁止穆斯林入境美國的提議。

Yet Mateen was American born and raised, a factor that underlines the futility of attempting to isolate the US from currents in the wider world through the draconian measures Mr Trump advocates. To tackle Isis effectively requires an understanding of its world view. It aims to provoke a backlash and repression against Muslims in the west to assist them in radicalising Muslim youth. By turning on Muslims at times like this, populist politicians, be they in France or the US, play directly to the Isis siren song.

然而馬丁是在美國出生和長大的，這個因素突顯出，嘗試用特朗普主張的嚴厲措施把美國與世界潮流隔離開來是徒勞的。要有效對付ISIS，就必須理解該組織的世界觀。它的目的就是在西方挑起針對穆斯林的反彈和壓制，幫助該組織煽動穆斯林青年走上激進道路。民粹主義政治人物（無論他們在法國還是美國）在這樣的時刻把矛頭對準穆斯林，正中ISIS的下懷。

Europe and the US share many of the challenges of how best to combat terrorism in a free society. Vigilance and better intelligence capabilities are evidently required. But law enforcement agencies will never have sufficient sight of extremist activity to make society entirely safe. This is true in the case of organised terrorist groups like Isis. It is even more difficult to pre-empt the behaviour of lone wolves like Mateen.

一個自由社會如何打擊恐怖主義？歐洲和美國在這個問題上面臨許多同樣的挑戰。警惕和更好的情報能力顯然是必需的。但是，執法部門永遠不可能充分掌握極端主義活動的動向，使社會完全安全。對付ISIS這樣的恐怖組織是如此。要防範馬丁這樣的獨狼就更難了。

What society can do is make it harder for them to buy weapons. Since the 2005 terror attacks in London there have been very few successful terrorist incidents. Those which have occurred involved knives and single victims.

社會可以做的是讓他們更難買到武器。自2005年倫敦遭遇恐襲以來，英國發生的成功恐襲事件很少，而這些少數事件僅涉及刀子和單個受害者。

One reason is that access to guns in the UK is very limited. By contrast, in the US, even assault rifles are easy to buy legally. They have been used in seven of eight high-casualty mass shootings since last July. In the past, the National Rifle Association has responded by calling for more guns not fewer. This is one more tragic occasion that argues, beyond reasonable doubt, the case for precisely the opposite.

一個原因是在英國獲得槍支的渠道非常有限。相比之下，在美國，就連突擊步槍也很容易合法買到。自去年7月以來發生的八次大規模血腥槍擊事件中，有七起使用了突擊步槍。全國步槍協會(NRA)以往的迴應方式一直是，呼籲美國人買更多（而不是更少）槍支。奧蘭多事件是又一個悲劇的理由，充分有力地證明應該採取恰好相反的對策。