沙特與俄羅斯權宜聯盟 Saudi's alliances show American influence fading
After King Salman of Saudi Arabia came to the throne in 2015 and allowed his favourite son and deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, to seize the main reins of power in the kingdom, the country has embarked on an assertive foreign and regional policy. The ageing and frail king’s son has upstaged the crown prince and next in line of succession, interior minister Mohammed bin Nayef. That much everyone agrees.
沙特國王薩勒曼(King Salman)2015年登上王位並讓自己最喜愛的兒子、副王儲穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)執掌王國主要權柄後，這個國家便走上了一條過分自信的外交和地區政策之路。老邁虛弱的國王的這個兒子搶走了王儲及下一位繼承人、內政大臣穆罕默德•本•納伊夫(Mohammed bin Nayef)的風頭。這些是人人都認同的。
Prince Mohammed bin Salman has accumulated surprising power, in a system where the ruling family normally seeks a careful balance between factions. MbS, as he is known in diplomatic shorthand, aged only 30 in a regime long run by men in their 70s and 80s, is defence minister and economic tsar, as well as overlord of the closely tied areas of foreign and oil policy.
在一個統治家族通常尋求派系間平衡的體制中，穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼親王已經掌握了驚人的權力。在這個長期由七八十歲男性統治的政權中，只有30歲的穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼（外交場合常縮寫爲MbS)既擔任國防大臣，又是經濟“沙皇”，同時還主導外交與石油這兩個密切相聯的領域的政策。
A linear summary of foreign and defence policy in his first year would probably highlight: the Saudi-led air war against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen launched last March; increased support for Sunni Islamist rebels fighting Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, which is backed by Iran, Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia paramilitaries and Russia; the break-off of diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran; and, in recent weeks, severing ties with Saudi political, military and media allies in Lebanon.
他主導外交與國防政策第一年的突出表現包括：以沙特爲首，去年3月對伊朗支持的也門胡塞叛軍進行空襲；加大對與敘利亞巴沙爾•阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)政權作戰的遜尼派伊斯蘭叛軍的支持力度，而阿薩德的支持者包括伊朗、真主黨(Hizbollah)、黎巴嫩什葉派準軍事組織及俄羅斯；中斷沙特與伊朗的外交關係；並在最近幾周切斷了沙特與黎巴嫩在政治、軍事、媒體方面的盟友關係。
What it might skip over is the budding detente between the kingdom and Vladimir Putin’s Russia, ally to all that Saudi Arabia most detests in the region — Iran, Hizbollah, and the Assad regime.
這裏有可能忽略的是沙特與弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)執政的俄羅斯之間初現的關係緩和跡象，而俄羅斯是沙特在中東最痛恨的所有勢力（伊朗、真主黨、阿薩德政權）的盟友。
Alliances of convenience are hardly new to the Middle East. The will to power of entrenched regimes often coexists with pragmatism, making strange bedfellows of sworn enemies. But the present situation has reached unusual heights of visceral and violent antagonism in the proxy wars between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran across the region, above all in Syria. But, first, what has Saudi Arabia been up to?
對中東而言，結成“權宜聯盟”並不是什麼新鮮事。穩固政權的權力意志往往與實用主義並存，可以讓不共戴天的仇敵變成夥伴。但當前整個地區（尤其是在敘利亞）遜尼派沙特與什葉派伊朗之間代理人戰爭的形勢已經在出於本能的暴力對抗方面達到了不同尋常的高度。但首先，我們想問，沙特一直在忙些什麼呢？
Riyadh is signalling a pullback from the war in Yemen. Saudi officials say they have destroyed a missile threat to the kingdom from their unruly southern neighbour. To many other eyes, it looks as if MbS bit off more than he could chew. Despite Riyadh unveiling an alliance of more than 30 Sunni nations to confront Iran’s designs, Egypt and Pakistan, which have the biggest armies, conspicuously declined to provide ground forces for the Saudi air war. In Syria, a Saudi threat to send in troops to support Sunni rebels proved empty.
利雅得正在發出從也門衝突抽身的信號。沙特官員表示，他們已將這個桀驁的南部鄰國帶來的導彈威脅摧毀。在許多其他人看來，穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼似乎有些眼高手低。儘管利雅得打造了一個由30多個遜尼派國家組成的對抗伊朗的聯盟，但擁有最龐大陸軍的兩個國家埃及和巴基斯坦都明顯拒絕爲沙特的空襲提供地面部隊支持。在敘利亞，沙特威脅出兵支持遜尼派叛軍也被證明只是虛張聲勢。
The diplomatic break with Iran, and rupture with Lebanon, came after the Saudi execution in January of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a dissident Shia cleric. Riyadh reacted after the Saudi embassy in Tehran and consulate in Mashhad were attacked by mobs. Lebanon’s foreign minister, a Hizbollah-aligned Christian, declined to condemn the events — acting as more papist than the Pope given that the Iranian government itself did so. The Saudis have cancelled $3bn in aid to Lebanon’s army, stopped paying local Sunni allies and associated media, and closed the Beirut office of Al Arabiya, a TV network owned by members of the royal family.
沙特在1月處決了持不同政見的什葉派教士謝赫尼米爾•尼米爾(Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr)之後，沙特與伊朗的外交關係中斷，與黎巴嫩也出現關係破裂。這是沙特駐德黑蘭大使館、駐馬什哈德領事館遭暴徒襲擊後，利雅得的反應。黎巴嫩外長（一名站在真主黨一邊的基督徒）拒絕譴責這兩起事件，要知道連伊朗政府也發出了譴責。沙特取消了對黎巴嫩軍隊30億美元的援助，停止向黎巴嫩當地遜尼派盟友及相關媒體提供資金支持，並關閉了沙特王室成員擁有的電視網絡——阿拉伯衛星電視臺(Al Arabiya)駐貝魯特辦事處。
Yet, at the same time, Prince Mohammed bin Salman has forged what Arab officials describe as a “functional and substantive” relationship with President Putin, covering Syria, possible Saudi arms purchases from and investment in Russia , and joint attempts to stabilise oil prices by freezing output.
然而，與此同時，阿拉伯官員表示，穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼親王與普京總統之間已經建立了“起作用的、實質性的”關係，涵蓋敘利亞危機、沙特有可能從俄羅斯購買武器並在俄羅斯投資，以及共同設法通過凍結產量穩定石油價格。
On Syria, US- and Russia-led peace efforts are still stymied by Moscow’s insistence that President Assad must be part of any transition out of war — which Washington and Riyadh are ostensibly resisting. But when MbS met Mr Putin last October at the Russian Grand Prix at Sochi, he told him: “We do not care about the Assads, we care about Iran,” according to an Arab official in contact with the deputy crown prince. Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said afterwards: “We now have a much clearer vision of how to move along the path of political settlement.”
敘利亞問題方面，美國和俄羅斯領導的和平努力仍受阻於莫斯科堅持阿薩德總統必須成爲任何從戰爭向和平過渡進程的一部分，而華盛頓和利雅得對此都明確表示反對。但去年10月在索契舉行的俄羅斯大獎賽(Russian Grand Prix)上見到普京時，穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼對普京說，“我們並不在乎阿薩德家族，我們在乎的是伊朗，”——一位與副王儲有聯繫的阿拉伯官員轉述稱。俄羅斯外交部長謝爾蓋•拉夫羅夫(Sergei Lavrov)後來表示：“關於如何推進政治解決，我們現在有了更清晰的視角。”
No such settlement is likely when talks on peace resume next week in Geneva. Despite Mr Putin’s partial withdrawal from Syria last month, Russia-backed Assad forces are still on the offensive — not just against Saudi-backed rebels but now also against the jihadis of Isis, from whom they recaptured the city of Palmyra last week.
下週在日內瓦恢復和平談判時，不大可能達成這樣的政治解決方案。儘管普京上月從敘利亞撤出了部分軍隊，但得到俄羅斯支持的阿薩德軍隊仍在發動進攻——不僅打擊沙特支持的叛軍，如今也打擊“伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)聖戰分子，並且上週從ISIS手中奪回了巴爾米拉城。
Some Arab sources say the Russian leader even informed MbS about his new Syrian policy before he told Mr Assad.
一些阿拉伯消息源表示，俄羅斯領導人甚至將自己新的敘利亞政策先告知穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼，然後才知會阿薩德。
Mr Putin may be signalling to Mr Assad that, unless he engages with evolving plans to end Syria’s war, Moscow could dump him. Russia, at the head of the Iran-backed axis in Syria and Iraq, is also now intersecting with the US-led coalition against Isis. Both coalitions are backing Syrian Kurdish militia fighting Isis across northern Syria. Russia’s ally Iran is de facto co-operating with the US in Iraq.
普京可能在暗示阿薩德，除非後者參與制訂結束敘利亞內戰的計劃，否則莫斯科可能將他拋棄。在伊朗支持的包括敘利亞和伊拉克的軸心聯盟中處於領導地位的俄羅斯，如今正在與美國領導的聯軍共同打擊ISIS。這兩大聯盟都支持在敘利亞北部與ISIS作戰的敘利亞庫爾德民兵。俄羅斯的盟友伊朗實際上正在伊拉克與美國進行合作。
But Saudi Arabia’s warming ties with Russia surely speak of the waning regional influence of the US, with which the kingdom has been closely allied for 70 years. After Barack Obama started a thaw in US relations with Iran through last year’s nuclear deal, and Mr Putin stormed into a Syrian war the US president has sought to avoid, the Saudis seem to have decided to work with Moscow, in the belief that it can influence Tehran. Syria, in all its gore, is the cockpit of the current Middle East.
但沙特與俄羅斯關係回暖肯定會導致美國在該地區影響力減弱，而美國與沙特之間的親密盟友關係已經延續70年之久。巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)通過去年簽署的核協議開啓了美國與伊朗的關係緩和，普京高調介入了奧巴馬力圖避免捲入的敘利亞內戰，此後，沙特似乎已經決定與莫斯科合作，相信莫斯科可以影響德黑蘭。飽受創傷的敘利亞仍是當前中東的鬥雞場。
