亞洲企業權衡人民幣貶值影響 Asia Inc weighs impact of renminbi devaluation

Shortly before Airbus celebrated the completion of the 100th A320 aircraft at its Chinese final assembly facility in September 2012, the renminbi was trading at Rmb6.4 to the US dollar. Over the following eight months it would strengthen 3 per cent against the greenback to Rmb6.2.

2012年9月，當空中客車(Airbus)慶祝第100架A320飛機在位於中國的總裝廠完工時，人民幣兌美元的匯率是1美元兌6.4元人民幣。在此後8個月期間，人民幣兌美元上漲3%，達到1美元兌6.2元人民幣。

This week the renminbi did the exact opposite, falling from Rmb6.2 to the dollar to Rmb6.4. It did so in just two days after the Chinese central bank shocked global markets on Tuesday by lowering the renminbi’s daily “reference rate” to the greenback — around which China’s currency is allowed to rise or fall by 2 per cent — by an unprecedented 1.9 per cent.

本週，人民幣出現了完全相反的走向，從1美元兌6.2元人民幣跌至1美元兌6.4元人民幣。這一變動發生在短短兩天期間。中國央行(PBoC)週二將人民幣匯率中間價史無前例地下調了1.9%，震驚全球市場。中國央行每天設定人民幣匯率中間價，允許人民幣匯率在其上下各2%的範圍內浮動。

Coupled with its pledge to set the reference rate closer to the renminbi’s previous close, the People’s Bank of China raised market expectations for a much more volatile trading environment for the renminbi. According to the central bank’s new rules, the Chinese currency could theoretically rise or fall by as much as 10 per cent over the course of a week.

中國央行還承諾，要讓人民幣匯率中間價更接近頭一天的收盤價。由此中國央行提升了市場對更爲波動的人民幣交易環境的預期。根據中國央行的新規則，人民幣匯率在一週期間的漲跌幅度理論上可能高達10%。

While such moves may be normal for most currencies, similar swings by the renminbi constitute a dramatic change for Chinese companies and foreign investors.

雖然對於多數貨幣來說，這樣的波動可能十分正常，但對於中國企業和外國投資者，人民幣若出現類似幅度的漲跌將是戲劇性變化。

For China-based manufacturers, such as Airbus’s “final assembly line” joint venture in the port city of Tianjin, the renminbi’s tumble this week is good news. That is because the joint venture books euro earnings from its European parent while most of its costs are in renminbi.

對於落戶中國的製造商——比如空客在港口城市天津的“總裝線”合資企業，人民幣本週的暴跌是個好消息。這是因爲該合資企業的多數成本是以人民幣計算的，而盈利卻是以歐元從歐洲母公司記賬的。

“We try to keep away from these [foreign exchange] fluctuations as much as we can through hedging,” says Andreas Ockel, the joint venture’s general manager. Hedging became increasingly necessary as the euro’s purchasing power fell from more than Rmb10 at the facility’s launch in 2008 to less than Rmb7 this year.

空客天津總裝線總經理歐凱翔(Andreas Ockel)表示：“我們試圖藉助對衝手段，儘可能地規避這類（匯率）波動。”2008年該廠投產時，歐元兌人民幣的匯率還是1歐元兌10元人民幣，今年已降至1歐元兌不到7元人民幣。歐元在華購買力的下降使對衝越來越有必要。

On an inflation-adjusted basis, the renminbi has risen more than 25 per cent against the euro over the past year alone.

僅過去一年，經通脹調整後的人民幣兌歐元匯率就上升逾25%。

Airbus’s Chinese airline customers, by contrast, have renminbi earnings but largely foreign exchange-based costs for items such as aircraft and fuel. Their share prices have fallen this week as investors calculated the potential impact of a much weaker renminbi.

相比之下，空客的中國航空公司客戶以人民幣計入盈利，而飛機和燃料等成本卻有很大部分是以外匯計價。本週，隨着投資者計算人民幣走弱對它們的潛在影響，這些航空公司的股價有所下跌。

China Southern Airlines, which has more aircraft than any other Asian carrier, had more than $16.5bn in dollar-denominated debt at the end of 2014. According to China Southern’s annual report, every 1 per cent fall in the value of the renminbi costs it almost Rmb770m in additional debt servicing costs.

中國南方航空公司(China Southern Airlines)擁有的飛機數量超過其它任何亞洲航空公司。2014年底，該公司揹負逾165億美元的美元債務。根據南航的年報，人民幣匯率每下跌1%，該公司就要額外負擔近7.7億元人民幣的償債成本。

Chinese property companies, whose shares have also collapsed this week, are in a similar bind. “Property companies could be hit hard as they issued large amounts of high-yield US dollar bonds offshore to finance land purchases in China,” says Zhou Hao, an economist with Commerzbank. “As [their] income is mostly in renminbi, the depreciation will add pressure on their balance sheets.”

本週股價大幅下跌的中國房地產企業也陷於類似的困境。德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)經濟學家周浩表示：“房地產企業可能會遭受沉重打擊，因爲它們爲了籌集資金在中國購地，曾在境外發行大量高收益的美元債券。由於（它們）的利潤主要是以人民幣計算的，這輪貶值將給它們的資產負債表增添壓力。”

Mr Zhou estimates that Chinese companies have issued more than 20 per cent of all high-yield dollar bonds. In addition to airlines and property developers, he predicts that Chinese oil companies and commodity traders would also be badly hit by a weaker renminbi.

周浩估計，中國企業發行的高收益美元債券佔此類債券總量的20%以上。除了航空公司和房地產開發商，他預計人民幣走弱還將沉重打擊中國石油企業和大宗商品交易商。

The key question for all companies affected by the renminbi’s unprecedented declines is whether its fall will continue, as the market initially appeared to believe.

對於受到此次人民幣空前幅度下調影響的所有企業，關鍵問題是：人民幣會不會繼續走低？市場起初似乎是這麼認爲的。

“Domestic corporates and international investors have realised that a slowing [Chinese economy] and ever-lower interest rates are at odds with a policy of keeping the renminbi strong and steady against the dollar,” says one Beijing-based executive. “They have therefore taken increasingly large positions to gain from a potentially weaker renminbi.”

一位駐北京的高管表示：“國內企業和國際投資者已經認識到，不斷放緩（的中國經濟）和越來越低的利率，與保持人民幣堅挺、保持兌美元匯率穩定的政策是牴觸的。因此，他們建立了越來越大的頭寸，以便從可能走低的人民幣獲利。”

China’s central bank has moved to counter such expectations. On Wednesday it declared that there was “no basis for persistent [renminbi] depreciation” and also intervened to support the renminbi.

中國央行已採取行動打消這種預期。週三，該行宣稱“不存在人民幣匯率持續貶值的基礎”，還出手干預匯市以支撐人民幣。

On Thursday morning the Chinese currency fell just 0.3 per cent against the dollar, implying that the central bank’s message had been received. In case it had not, it was reiterated by Yi Gang, a central bank vice-governor, at a rare and hastily convened press conference.

週四早晨，人民幣兌美元匯率只下跌了0.3%，暗示央行發出的信號已被市場領會。爲了以防萬一，中國央行副行長易綱在一個罕見而倉促召集的記者會上重申了央行的立場。

That will disappoint many manufacturing companies who are hoping for a short, sharp devaluation of at least 10 per cent. They have been badly squeezed by the renminbi’s 25 per cent rise in value against the dollar since 2005 and ever-higher labour costs.

對衆多期待人民幣一下子貶值至少10%的企業來說，這將令他們失望。自2005年以來人民幣兌美元匯率25%的上升幅度，以及越來越高的勞動力成本，令這些企業承受着極大壓力。

“If the devaluation is just a few percentage points, it doesn’t make much difference for manufacturers,” says Gerhard Flatz, who manages a sportswear company that exports from southern Guangdong province. “But if it’s more than 10 percentage points, it will help us fend off competition from the likes of Bangladesh and Vietnam.”

在廣東省管理一家生產出口運動服企業的格哈德弗拉茨(Gerhard Flatz)表示：“如果只是貶值幾個百分點，那對製造商來說沒什麼不同。然而如果貶值10個百分點以上，那將幫助我們抵擋孟加拉國和越南等國家的競爭。”

“Right now Guangdong’s manufacturing industry is facing great challenges because of increasing costs,” adds Willy Lin, managing director of a Hong Kong knitwear company. “If the government wants to [help], they need to maintain the devaluation for at least six to 12 months.”

香港一家針織品企業的董事總經理Willy Lin補充說：“目前，由於不斷上升的成本，廣東製造業正面臨巨大挑戰。如果政府想（幫忙），他們需要保持人民幣貶值趨勢至少6到12個月。”

Additional reporting by Wan Li and Gloria Cheung

萬麗、Gloria Cheung補充報道