人民幣貶值合情合理 China devaluation a deep cut but barely a scratch
If yesterday’s devaluation of the renminbi was China’s entry to the currency wars, it brought a knife to a gunfight. The currency fell 1.9 per cent against the dollar, which is the biggest daily fall since 1994 but barely makes a scratch in its rise of a fifth against both the yen and the euro since last summer.
如果昨日的人民幣貶值表明中國進入貨幣戰，那麼這一舉動無異於拿着匕首參加槍戰。人民幣兌美元中間價貶值1.9%，爲自1994年以來的最大單日跌幅，但與自去年夏以來人民幣對日元與歐元20%的升幅相比，顯得微不足道。
Traders are probably wrong to expect a series of government devaluations. People’s Bank of China policymakers may be part of a repressive autocracy, but they are not stupid: they know devaluations should be big one-off events, not a run of small cuts which encourage capital flight.
交易員如果預期中國政府會讓人民幣連續貶值，他們很可能會犯錯。中國央行的政策制定者或許是壓制性專制體制的一部分，但他們絕不愚蠢：他們清楚，貶值應該是較大幅的一次性舉動，而不是連續多次小幅貶值，否則會導致資本外逃。
Still, there is fear in the markets that further devaluation is on the way, exporting deflation. Doubt was even cast on US rate rises, with two-year US bond yields yesterday up all of last week’s increase.
儘管如此，市場仍擔心未來人民幣會繼續貶值，向世界輸出通縮。隨着昨日兩年期美國國債收益率抹去了上週的全部漲幅，就連美國的加息前景也打了問號。
The freely traded offshore renminbi dropped 2.8 per cent, while the offshore 12-month forwards fell by double the domestic move, anticipating further weakness ahead.
自由交易的離岸人民幣匯率下跌了2.8%，離岸12個月遠期匯率跌幅達在岸跌幅的兩倍，表明市場預期人民幣會進一步走弱。
It is easy to see why China might want to unleash the monetary gunboats. The real value of the renminbi against China’s trading partners is up 14 per cent since last summer, more than the rise in the US dollar. The real renminbi has been accelerating, too, with the fastest year-on-year rise since the recovery began in 2009.
不難看出爲何中國或許想要發動“貨幣炮艇”。自去年夏以來，人民幣對中國各貿易伙伴國貨幣的真實價值累計上升了14%，高於美元的升幅。實際人民幣匯率也一直在加速上升，年同比升速達到自2009年復甦開始以來的最高值。
Rather than resort to PBoC devaluations, though, China may finally be taking the US approach and leaving it to the market. A weaker economy, a share price crash and looser monetary policy this year all justify a weaker renminbi, but in nominal terms the currency started this week barely changed against the dollar from the start of January. Aligning the daily fix more closely to the market exchange rate, as the PBoC said it planned, should allow supply and demand to determine the price. Conveniently for the PBoC, at the moment that means a weaker renminbi.
不過，中國最終或許不會再依靠央行來實施貶值，而是採取美國的做法，讓市場來決定匯率。今年，中國的經濟放緩、股價下跌以及貨幣寬鬆，都表明了人民幣走弱的合理性，但本週初的人民幣兌美元名義匯率與1月初的水平幾乎沒有變化。將匯率中間價調整至更接近市場匯率的水平——中國央行表示這是他們的計劃——應該會使供求成爲匯率的決定因素。在中國央行看來，當前的供求狀況正好意味着人民幣走弱。
Sentiment towards China is currently very negative, but it swings around. The real test of the PBoC’s commitment to a more freely floating currency will be what happens when market moves interfere with its policies.
眼下市場對中國的情緒非常負面，但它不會一直這樣。對於中國央行提高人民幣匯率自由浮動程度的承諾，真正的考驗將是，當市場走勢與其政策相左時會發生什麼。
It is tough to distinguish a currency war from central bank responses to slow global growth. However defined, a slowing China is right to want a weaker renminbi.
我們很難把貨幣戰跟央行鍼對全球經濟增長緩慢的應對措施區分開來。但無論怎樣定義，經濟放緩的中國希望人民幣走軟，都是合乎情理的。
