共和黨的選擇絕境 The unpalatable choices facing the Republicans

Desperate times for the Republicans call for desperate measures. In any other situation, it is impossible to imagine figures such as Mitt Romney or Jeb Bush endorsing Ted Cruz as the party’s nominee. Yet they feel Donald Trump’s scorched earth advance leaves them no choice. They calculate that Mr Cruz is the only candidate left with a chance of stopping Mr Trump from winning a majority of delegates before the final primary in June.

共和黨正處於非常時期，因此需要採取非常措施。本來，在其他任何情況下，都無法想象米特•羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)或傑布•布什(Jeb Bush)之類的人物會支持特德•克魯茲(Ted Cruz)作爲本黨總統候選人。可是現在，他們覺得唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)勢如破竹的攻勢已讓他們別無選擇。他們盤算着，有機會阻止特朗普在6月預選結束之前贏得多數代表支持的候選人，只剩下克魯茲了。

With either as nominee, Republican leaders have all but written off hope of recapturing the White House. Going with Mr Cruz would at least enable them to keep their party intact, albeit at the risk of a third-party candidacy by an enraged Mr Trump. Lindsey Graham, the senator from South Carolina, likened it to a choice between being shot or poisoned. He too has swallowed the hemlock. Not one of Mr Cruz’s new allies believes he should be president, or that he would stand much chance of winning. They are playing a different game. For their party’s future, they would rather lose with Mr Cruz than with Mr Trump.

無論特朗普還是克魯茲成爲總統候選人，共和黨都基本不可能再奪回白宮。支持克魯茲至少能保持共和黨的完整，只不過被激怒的特朗普還可能以第三方候選人身份參選。南卡羅來納州的參議員林塞•格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)把這比作在被槍殺與被毒死之間做選擇。他自己也已服下了毒藥。在克魯茲的新支持者中，沒有人認爲他應該當總統，也沒有人認爲他勝選的可能性很大。他們現在玩的是一種不同的遊戲。爲了共和黨的未來，他們就是輸也寧願和克魯茲一起，而不願與特朗普在一起。

There is not much chance that the last minute ploy will work. With 29 states having already voted, Mr Trump has gathered about 60 per cent of the delegates he needs to push him over the top — the magic number is 1,237. If Mr Trump crossed that threshold, there would be no stopping him.

這種“臨時抱佛腳”的策略不太可能奏效。目前已有29個州完成初選，特朗普已拿到贏得提名所需選舉人票數的約60%。那個可以將他推向巔峯的神奇數字是1237，如果特朗普跨過了這個門檻，就沒有什麼能阻止他了。

If he fell shy, however, it would open the door to selecting another candidate at the Republican convention in July. Many delegates are only “bound” to vote for their candidate on the first ballot. The theory is that enough of Mr Trump’s delegates could be induced, or cajoled, to switching horses on the second or third round. It is a perversely negative strategy. Polls say that John Kasich, the governor of Ohio, is the only one of the three remaining Republicans who could defeat Hillary Clinton. His pragmatic record, and Midwestern blue collar roots, have broad appeal. Yet the logic behind the Cruz endorsements would require Mr Kasich to drop out of the race. His presence continues to split the anti-Trump vote.

如果他拿不到這麼多選舉人票，7月份共和黨全國代表大會就有機會選出另一個候選人。很多代表只是“不得不”在第一輪投票中支持他們的候選人。理論上講，不管是勸還是哄，應該能夠引導足夠多的支持特朗普的代表，在第二輪或第三輪投票中轉向支持其他候選人。這是異常消極的策略。民調顯示，在共和黨僅存的三名總統競選者中，俄亥俄州州長約翰•卡西奇(John Kasich)是唯一有可能戰勝希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)的人。他出身於中西部的藍領階層的，作風務實，擁有廣泛的號召力。但按照一衆共和黨人支持克魯茲的邏輯，卡西奇就得退出競選。他的存在進一步分散了反特朗普的選票。

It is also a dangerous tactic. Mr Cruz would be the most extreme nominee since Barry Goldwater in 1964 — and in many respects more so. Among other policies, he would return to the gold standard, end the US Federal Reserve’s independence and abolish the Internal Revenue Service. On all three he is to the right of Mr Trump.

這也是一個危險的策略。克魯茲如獲提名，將是1964年參選的巴里•戈德華特(Barry Goldwater)以來最極端的候選人，而且在很多方面比戈德華特更極端。按照他主張的政策，他將回歸金本位，結束美聯儲(Fed)的獨立地位，並撤銷美國國稅局(IRS)。就這三方面來說，他比特朗普還要右傾。

In spite of his own half-Cuban background and Canadian birth, he too would build a wall with Mexico and expel the estimated 11m illegal Hispanic immigrants from the US. He would also match Mr Trump’s draconian stance on Muslims. Following this week’s terrorist attacks in Brussels, Mr Cruz said he would empower US law enforcement to “patrol and secure Muslim neighbourhoods before they become radicalised”.

儘管擁有部分古巴血統並在加拿大出生，克魯茲也將在美國和墨西哥之間建一堵牆，並把約1100萬非法拉美裔移民驅逐出境。他在對穆斯林的嚴厲態度上也跟特朗普不相上下。本週布魯塞爾發生恐怖襲擊之後，克魯茲表示，他將授權美國執法機構“在穆斯林社區巡邏和維持治安，防止他們變成激進分子”。

It is hard to think of a step more likely to inflame sentiment or to think of a nominee more likely to discredit the Republican brand than Mr Cruz. Except for Mr Trump, that is. Projections suggest Mr Trump will win a majority or large plurality of delegates. Were he to be denied the crown, the outcome could be combustible. Mr Trump has “predicted” riots were that to happen.

想不出還有什麼政策比這更能激起民憤，還有什麼樣的候選人比克魯茲更可能敗壞共和黨的名聲——也就只有特朗普了。據預測，特朗普將贏得多數或相對多數的選舉人票。如果不讓他獲得提名，後果可能很麻煩。特朗普曾“預言”那將引發騷亂。

Mr Trump’s nomination would damage the Republican party and the US. The same applies to Mr Cruz. Republican elders bear heavy responsibility for what is happening. There are no good options left. Rather than pick between two unpalatable losers, they should take another look at the merits of Mr Kasich. It is far better to go down for a cause in which you at least believe.

特朗普獲得提名對共和黨和美國都有害。克魯茲也是如此。共和黨大佬們對當前局面負有重大責任。沒有什麼好的選擇了。與其在兩個都令人難以接受的失敗者中選一個，不如再考慮一下卡西奇的優點。帶着一種你至少相信的主張參加競選而失敗，無疑要好得多。