埃塞俄比亞看好中國因素 Ethiopian industry: still banking on China
China’s slowing economy and the turmoil on its stock and foreign exchange markets have reverberated around the world and constitute one of the biggest threats to growth in other emerging markets in 2016.
中國經濟放緩以及中國股市和匯率的動盪在全球引發震盪，並對2016年其他新興市場的增長構成最大威脅之一。
But in Ethiopia, one of the many beneficiaries of Chinese trade and investment, officials remain unfazed.
但在埃塞俄比亞（受益於中國貿易和投資的衆多國家之一），官員們泰然自若。
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Ethiopia’s foreign minister, says he is confident that Chinese investors still consider Ethiopia a “target country” for manufacturing operations overseas, as wages rise across Asia.
埃塞俄比亞外交部長泰德斯攠德漢姆戈巴耶思(Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus)表示，他相信，隨着亞洲各國薪資上漲，中國投資者仍會將埃塞俄比亞視爲海外製造業務的“目標國”。
“I expect even more foreign direct investment flow from China. There is a strong interest to migrate manufacturing to Ethiopia,” Mr Ghebreyesus told the Financial Times.
戈巴耶思告訴英國《金融時報》：“我預計會有更多來自中國的外國直接投資(FDI)流入。他們對於把製造業遷至埃塞俄比亞有着濃厚興趣。”
Wages in Ethiopia are about a quarter of those in China’s and half of Vietnam’s. Ethiopia also benefits from duty-free access to the US market for many goods through the US Africa Growth and Opportunity Act.
埃塞俄比亞的薪資是中國水平的四分之一左右，是越南的一半。埃塞俄比亞還受益於這一事實：根據美國《非洲增長與機會法》(African Growth and Opportunity Act)，該國很多產品可免稅進入美國市場。
In October, the IMF cut its 2016 growth forecast for Africa to 3.75 per cent on the back of weak commodities prices and China’s falling growth figures.
去年10月，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)將非洲2016年的增長預測下調至3.75%，理由是大宗商品價格下跌和中國增速放緩。
Ethiopia’s forecasts, by contrast, are holding at above 8 per cent through 2015 and into 2016.
相比之下，埃塞俄比亞對2015年全年以及2016年的預測仍超過8%。
Across Africa, the relationship with China — which surpassed the US to become the region’s top trade partner in 2009 — has been one of the drivers of an economic boom over the past decade.
在非洲各國，與中國的關係是過去10年經濟繁榮的推動力之一，2009年，中國超過美國，成爲非洲最大貿易伙伴。
Ethiopia’s semi-authoritarian government has made turning the country into a hub for light manufacturing a key priority. That strategy is bearing fruit: industrial output grew by 21.2 per cent between 2013 and 2014, and now accounts for some 14 per cent of GDP.
埃塞俄比亞的半威權政府把推動該國轉型爲一個輕工製造業中心列爲關鍵工作重點。這種戰略正在結出果實：從2013年至2014年，該國工業產出增長21.2%，現在約佔國內生產總值(GDP)的14%。
The Ethiopian government has set itself a target of $1bn in textile exports by 2016. Attracting Chinese companies will be key. Between 2003 and Q3 2015, 11 of the 15 projects China has invested in Ethiopia have been in manufacturing, according to fDi Markets, a data service from the Financial Times.
埃塞俄比亞政府設定的目標是到2016年紡織品出口額達到10億美元。吸引中國企業將是關鍵。根據英國《金融時報》數據服務機構fDi Markets的數據，2003年至2015年第三季度，中國在埃塞俄比亞投資的15個項目中，有11個是在製造業。
Major retailers have taken note. Swedish clothing powerhouse H&M announced in August that it would begin sourcing products from Ethiopian factories, following similar initiatives by the likes of Tesco and Walmart.
大型零售商注意到了這點。瑞典服裝巨擘H&M去年8月宣佈，將開始從埃塞俄比亞的工廠採購產品，此前樂購(Tesco)和沃爾瑪(Walmart)等零售商採取了類似舉措。
The Ethiopian government is putting money behind its bid for industrialisation and plans to continue to do so at pace, despite headwinds in the global economy, according to the minister.
戈巴耶思表示，儘管全球經濟面臨不利因素，但埃塞俄比亞政府正把資金投入工業化計劃，並計劃繼續按計劃進行。
“We are beginning a programme of massive infrastructure construction and special economic zone building so that we have the parts in place to attract these investments,” Mr Ghebreyesus says. “We have strong commitment from the Chinese government, and from Chinese companies.”
“我們正啓動大規模基礎設施建設計劃，並建設經濟特區，使我們具備吸引這些投資的條件，”戈巴耶思表示，“我們擁有中國政府以及中國企業的強有力承諾。”
Industrialisation has proven difficult across much of the region, so African policymakers are watching the Ethiopian example with interest.
在非洲很多地區，工業化一直被證明困難重重，因此非洲的政策制定者普遍對埃塞俄比亞的例子感興趣。
In 2014, officials at the Ethiopian Industrial Development Zones Corporation said it would put a $250m World Bank loan into expanding the Bole Lemi special economic zone (SEZ) outside Addis, the capital, as well as building an entirely new “industrial hub” at Kilinito some 30km south. At least another three SEZs are planned for other parts of the country in the coming few years, including one in Dire Dawa in the south-east.
2014年，埃塞俄比亞工業開發區公司(Ethiopian Industrial Development Zones Corporation)的高管表示，將把世界銀行(World Bank)的2.5億美元貸款用於開發該國首都亞的斯亞貝巴郊外的Bole Lemi經濟特區，並在30公里以南的克里尼託(Kilinito)建設一個全新的“工業中心”。該國計劃未來幾年在國內其他地方至少再建設3個經濟特區，包括東南部的德雷達瓦。
The question is whether China’s manufacturers will be making the jump across at the pace Ethiopia anticipated in years past. China’s FDI into greenfields projects in Africa fell sharply in the first half of 2015, according to fDi Markets.
問題是中國製造商是否會像埃塞俄比亞過去幾年預期的那樣邁出大步。fDi Markets的數據顯示，去年上半年，中國對非洲新項目的直接投資大幅下滑。
According to Mr Ghebreyesus, any dip in China’s investment flows into the region will be temporary. “It will not last. The curve will go back up,” he says. “The difference will depend on SEZ construction.”
戈巴耶思表示，中國對該地區的投資減少將是暫時的。“這不會持續很長時間。曲線將重新上行，”他表示，“這取決於經濟特區的建設。”
Results from the December Caixin survey mark the fifth month in a row that China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index has remained below the 50-point mark that separates economic expansion from contraction.
財新去年12月調查的結果顯示，中國製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)連續第5個月低於50，50代表經濟擴張與收縮的分水嶺。
According to analysts, however, Ethiopian officials’ optimism is not misplaced. As China’s demand for commodities slows, “Ethiopia should be more resilient than other commodity-exporting countries”, says Sarah Baynton-Glen, Africa economist at Standard Chartered.
然而，分析師們表示，埃塞俄比亞官員的樂觀並非沒有道理。渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)非洲經濟學家薩拉貝恩頓-格倫(Sarah Baynton-Glen)表示，隨着中國對大宗商品的需求放緩，“埃塞俄比亞的彈性應當會超過其他大宗商品出口國”。
Bucking trends across much of Africa for commodities-led growth, Ethiopia has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies on the back of strong growth in the services, agriculture and industrial sectors.
相對於非洲很多國家以大宗商品爲主導的增長，埃塞俄比亞成爲這一趨勢的一個例外。服務業、農業和工業的強勁增長，使該國成爲全球增長最快的經濟體之一。
Investment is only a small part of the relationship. “A large part of involvement by China in Ethiopia is through project contracts — largely infrastructure projects — which we do not think are likely to drop off as a result of slower Chinese growth,” says Ms Baynton-Glen.
投資只是中埃兩國關係的一小部分。貝恩頓-格倫表示：“中國參與埃塞俄比亞經濟的很大一部分是通過項目合約，主要是基礎設施項目，我們認爲，這些合約不太可能因中國增速放緩而減少。”
For the time being at least, plans for Ethiopia’s industrial transformation appear set to remain on track.
至少目前來看，埃塞俄比亞的工業轉型計劃似乎保持在正軌上。
