蔡英文勝選後面臨兩大難題
Opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen won a historic landslide victory in Saturday’s elections but Taiwan’s president-elect must now turn her attention to the daunting tasks of rejuvenating the island’s struggling economy and managing relations with a Chinese government that is hostile to her party.
臺灣反對黨領袖蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen)在上週六的大選中贏得了歷史性的壓倒性勝利，但這名總統當選人現在必須把注意力轉向兩項艱鉅的任務上：振興島內低迷經濟，以及處理與中國政府的關係，後者對她所領導的政黨毫無好感。
Ms Tsai crushed rival Eric Chu from the ruling Kuomintang, or Nationalist party, in the presidential race, winning 56 per cent of the vote to his 31 per cent, as the Taiwanese people voiced their dissatisfaction with the KMT’s lacklustre government and its pro-China policies.
蔡英文大勝執政黨中國國民黨(Nationalist Party)的總統候選人朱立倫(Eric Chu)，贏得了56%的選票，朱立倫贏得的選票爲31%。臺灣民衆表達出他們對國民黨政府乏善可陳的政績和親中政策的不滿。
When inaugurated in May, she will become the first female president in this island of 23m people and one of the first female leaders elected in Asia who is not from a family dynasty.
蔡英文今年5月就任時，將成爲擁有2300萬人口的臺灣的首位女總統，同時也是在亞洲未藉助家族人脈而當選爲領導人的首批女性之一。
Her Democratic Progressive party also smashed the KMT in the simultaneous legislative election, taking 60 per cent of the 113 seats in Taiwan’s parliament, up from 35 per cent in 2012, and giving it a majority for the first time in its history.
在同時進行的立法院選舉中，她所在的民主進步黨(DPP)也大勝國民黨，贏得了臺灣立法院113個席位中的60%，而2012年其席位僅佔35%，這是民進黨史上首次取得多數地位。
Looking emotional and raspy-voiced, the bookish former law professor told supporters on Saturday night that she would work to “bring forth a country with more freedom, more democracy, more prosperity and more justice”.
在上週六晚上，這位帶有書卷氣的前法學教授看起來頗爲激動，聲音也略顯嘶啞，她告訴支持者：“一個更自由、更民主、更繁榮、更公義的國家就在我們的眼前。”
“We hold an absolute majority and we must fulfil our promises to the voters,” she said. “Our reform will not be half-measured.”
“民主進步黨是國會的多數黨，我們就要兌現對選民的承諾，”她說，“改革絕對不能剩一半。”
But progress will be difficult given the deteriorating economy and the renewed question marks over Taiwan’s relations with Beijing, which claims that the island is still part of China and has threatened to invade if it declares formal independence.
但考慮到正在惡化的臺灣經濟，以及圍繞兩岸關係的新問號，取得進展將是困難的。北京方面宣稱臺灣仍是中國的一部分，並威脅如果臺灣正式宣佈獨立將武力攻打臺灣。
Tien Hung-mao, a former Taiwanese foreign minister and chairman of the Institute for National Policy Research, said there was a “sense of urgency” for Ms Tsai to seek a mutual understanding with Beijing about the cross-straits relationship before she is inaugurated on May 20.
臺灣前外交部長、臺灣國策研究院(Institute for National Policy Research)院長田弘茂表示，現在有一種“緊迫感”，迫使蔡英文在5月20日就任前尋求與北京方面就兩岸關係達成互相諒解。
He said the other priority was “Taiwan’s ailing economy”, which shrank by 1 per cent in the third quarter as it felt the effects of the slowdown in China and weak global trade.
他表示，另一個當務之急是“臺灣狀況不佳的經濟”。因爲中國經濟放緩和全球貿易疲弱的影響，臺灣經濟在2015年第三季度收縮了1%。
The DPP has long promoted a separate Taiwanese identity and it opposed outgoing President Ma Ying-jeou’s policy of closer economic ties with China.
長期以來，民進黨一直宣揚獨立的臺灣認同。民進黨反對現任臺灣總統馬英九和大陸建立更緊密經濟關係的政策。
Its overwhelming victory in the elections sends an uncomfortable signal to Beijing about the direction in which Taiwan is moving.
民進黨在選舉中取得壓倒性勝利，這給北京方面傳達了一個有關臺灣前進方向的不妙信號。
“By electing Ms Tsai as president, Taiwan is sending a clear message to China that it’s time for the Taiwanese people to take back control and decide the course of their own nation,” said Hawang Shiow-duan, a political scientist at Taiwan’s Soochow University.
“通過選舉蔡英文爲總統，臺灣向中國發出了明確的信息——是時候由臺灣人民收回控制權並決定他們自己國家的前進方向了，”臺灣東吳大學(Soochow University)政治學家黃秀端(Hawang Shiow-duan)表示。
Beijing’s initial response was restrained, with the foreign ministry saying “the result of the election in Taiwan will not change the basic fact” that Taiwan belongs to China and that it “never tolerates any separatist activities”.
北京方面的初步反應比較剋制，中國外交部表示“臺灣地區選舉結果不改變”臺灣屬於中國這一基本事實，中國政府“絕不容忍任何形式的‘臺獨’分裂活動”。
Xinhua, the Chinese state news agency, said the change of government was a mere “fleeting cloud” and that the “progress of mainland China is the key factor that determines Taiwan’s future”.
國家新聞通訊社新華社表示，臺灣政局變化不過是“過眼雲煙”，“決定臺灣前途、兩岸關係走向的關鍵因素是大陸的發展進步”。
Analysts warned that Beijing might look to cut some economic and political ties with Taiwan as punishment for the election of a party whose stance it dislikes.
分析人士警告說，北京方面不喜歡民進黨的立場，可能會考慮切斷與臺灣的部分經濟和政治聯繫，作爲對該黨獲選的懲罰。
“Boycotts from Beijing are possible,” said Lin Cheng-yi, an expert on international relations at Academia Sinica, a Taiwanese research institute. “But the issue of Taiwan won’t be a priority for the People’s Republic of China, if it is not provoked.”
臺灣研究機構中央研究院( Academia Sinica)國際關係專家林正義表示：“北京方面可能會予以杯葛。但只要不受到挑釁，中華人民共和國就不會把臺灣問題列爲優先事項。”
While the DPP wants to reduce Taiwan’s economic reliance on China in the medium term, any increase in cross-strait tensions could make the business climate even gloomier, given that 40 per cent of the island’s exports go to China.
雖然民進黨希望在中期內減少臺灣對中國的經濟依賴，但由於臺灣40%的出口都輸往大陸，兩岸緊張局勢只要有所升級，臺灣的商業環境將更加黯淡。
A further challenge is the long transition period between the swearing-in of the new legislature on February 1 and Ms Tsai being inaugurated as president in May.
新議會將於2月1日宣誓就職，而蔡英文就任總統是在5月，這之間漫長的過渡期將形成進一步挑戰。
Bruce Jacobs, an expert on Taiwanese politics at Australia’s Monash University, said that Ms Tsai must use this interregnum to prepare “so that she can hit the ground running”.
澳大利亞莫納什大學(Monash University)臺灣政治問題專家布魯斯雅各布(Bruce Jacobs)表示，蔡英文必須利用這段過渡期做好準備，“這樣纔能有個好的開始。”
Ms Hawang of Soochow University believes that Ms Tsai’s past experience as a legislator and senior government official will help. “She knows how to deal with the parliament and I think she will do a better job than past two presidents,” she said.
東吳大學的黃秀端相信蔡英文過去作爲立法委員和政府高官的經驗將派上用場。她說：“她知道如何與立法院打交道，我認爲她會比前兩任總統幹得更好。”
