石油市場走弱 殼牌放棄北極鑽井
As oil prices have continued their steady decline this year, rig after rig has been shut down, costing thousands of jobs in the United States. Yet major oil producers have been loathe to pull the plug on their most ambitious projects — the multibillion-dollar investments that form the backbone of their operations.
隨着今年石油價格持續走低，一口口油井接連被關閉，導致美國喪失成千上萬的工作機會。但大型石油生產商一直不願停止它們最有野心的項目，這些價值數十億美元的投資項目，支撐了石油企業的運營。
Until now. On Monday, Royal Dutch Shell ended its expensive and fruitless nine-year effort to explore for oil in the Alaskan Arctic — a $7 billion investment — in another sign that the entire industry is trimming its ambitions in the wake of collapsing oil prices.
但這種情況現在結束了。週一，荷蘭皇家殼牌(Royal Dutch Shell)放棄了在阿拉斯加勘探石油的努力，這一耗資高昂的項目歷時九年但一無所獲——殼牌投資70億美元。這表明在油價暴跌後，整個行業都在收斂其野心。
The announcement was hailed as a major victory by environmentalists, who had fought the project for years, only to be stymied by pressure inside and outside the industry to increase domestic oil production.
殼牌的聲明受到了環保人士的熱烈歡迎，他們曾和這一項目抗爭多年。但因爲行業內外都存在增加國內石油產量的壓力，環保人士的抗爭此前並無進展。
But at a time when global markets are glutted with oil, thanks to the advent of new drilling techniques, the announcement also confirmed major oil companies’ increasing willingness to turn their backs on the most expensive new drilling prospects in the Gulf of Mexico and suspend plans for new projects in Canada’s oil sands.
隨着新興鑽井技術的出現，全球市場上石油供過於求，在這種時候，殼牌的聲明也證實，大型石油企業越來越想要回避墨西哥灣(Gulf of Mexico)最昂貴的鑽探機會，也想要擱置在加拿大啓動新項目，開採油砂的計劃。
The industry has cut its investments by 20 percent this year and laid off at least 200,000 workers worldwide, roughly 5 percent of the total work force. At the same time, companies have retreated from less profitable fields in places like the North Sea, West Africa, and some shale prospects in Louisiana and North Dakota.
今年，石油行業的投資減少了20%，全球至少裁員20萬人，大約相當於其員工總數的5%。與此同時，各公司紛紛撤出利潤較少的地區，如北海、西非，以及路易斯安那州和北達科塔州一些潛在的頁岩產區。
Over all, American oil companies have decommissioned more than half of their drilling rigs over the last year, and production is beginning to drop in the United States. Even exports from Saudi Arabia are beginning to ebb because of a glut in its Asian markets.
總體而言，在過去一年裏，美國的石油企業停用了超過一半的石油鑽井平臺，美國的石油產量也開始下降。即便是沙特阿拉伯的石油出口量，也因爲亞洲市場石油過剩而開始減少。
“The decision by Shell to abandon its Arctic drilling program for now primarily reflects the realities of lower global oil prices,” said Michael C. Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, who advises oil companies and investment banks. “When prices go down the oil industry shortens their list of projects in development by removing the most expensive ones.”
“殼牌暫時放棄其北極鑽井項目的決定，首先反映出全球油價走低的現實，”戰略能源和經濟研究公司(Strategic Energy and Economic Research)總裁邁克爾·C·林奇(Michael C. Lynch)說。他爲石油公司和投資銀行提供決策建議。“當價格降低時，石油行業會取消其最爲昂貴的項目，減少建設中的項目總量。”
This year, industry executives held out hope that the oil price, which has fallen more than 50 percent to below $50 a barrel since last summer, would recover before too long. But in recent weeks, a growing number of executives have warned that the downturn could last well into 2016 and perhaps beyond, especially if the Iran nuclear deal leads to a flood of new oil on world markets.
今年，石油行業的高管提出，油價有望在不久之後回升——自去年夏天以來，油價已經下降逾50個百分點，跌破每桶50美元。但近幾周來，越來越多的高管警告說，油價下降的頹勢可能會持續到2016年甚至更久，如果伊朗核協議使國際市場新增大量石油供應，就尤其可能如此。
With demand dwindling, the current market of 94 million barrels a day has roughly two million barrels in surplus supply.
由於需求減少，目前市場上每天供應的9400萬桶石油，會有大約200萬桶的剩餘。
Now, economic forces have scuttled what environmentalists had tried to do for years in the courts and with raucous protests in canoes and kayaks, arguing that drilling in the dark, ice-filled Arctic was dangerous to polar bears and other sea life.
多年來，環保人士曾在法庭力爭，也曾駕着小船吵雜地抗議，堅稱在昏暗無光、冰雪覆蓋的北極開展鑽井活動，會給北極熊和其他海洋生物造成危害。而今，經濟的力量迅速達成了他們一直以來爲之奮鬥的目標。
“This is a victory for everyone who has stood up for the Arctic,” said Annie Leonard, executive director of Greenpeace, a leader in the protests against Shell. “There is no better time to keep fossil fuels in the ground, bringing us one step closer to an energy revolution and sustainable future.”
“對每個保衛過北極的人來說，這都是一場勝利，”安妮·雷納德(Annie Leonard)說。她是綠色和平(Greenpeace)執行理事，也是反殼牌抗議活動的領導者。“現在是把化石燃料保留在地下的最佳時機，這讓我們離能源革命和可持續的未來又走近了一步。”
Industry experts say there is plenty of oil in offshore Alaska, and that renewed efforts are still possible if and when the oil price recovers. But environmentalists declared a triumph.
業內專家表示，阿拉斯加附近海域有豐富的石油資源，如果油價迴歸，開採活動仍有可能恢復。但環保人士已經宣佈取得了勝利。
Shell has spent more than $7 billion on an effort that has been plagued by blunders and accidents involving ships and support equipment, reaching a climax with the grounding of one of its drilling vessels in December 2012 in stormy seas. Even after ConocoPhillips and the Norwegian oil giant Statoil suspended their Alaskan offshore drilling operations, Shell carried on, asserting that the Chukchi Sea potentially represented the next great global oil find.
殼牌已花費超過70億美元巨資開展這個項目，但船隻和輔助設備卻接連出現失誤和事故，其中最嚴重的一樁發生在2012年12月，當時該公司的一艘鑽探船在狂風驟雨的海上擱淺。儘管康菲石油(ConocoPhillips)和挪威國家石油公司(Statoil)都停止了在阿拉斯加附近海域的鑽井作業，但是殼牌還是繼續推進。該公司斷定，楚科奇海可能是下一個全球石油大發現。
But the company announced that its one well drilled this summer “found indications of oil and gas, but these are not sufficient to warrant further exploration.” In a statement, it also acknowledged “the high costs associated with the project and the challenging and unpredictable federal regulatory environment in offshore Alaska.”
然而殼牌公司宣佈，該公司今年夏天鑽探的一口油井“發現了存在石油和天然氣的跡象，但並不足以支撐進一步勘探”。該公司還在一份聲明中表示，認識到“該項目涉及高昂的成本，而且阿拉斯加海洋石油開採也面臨着挑戰性極大且無法預測的聯邦監管環境。”
The decision represented a major turnaround from the faith in the project that Ben van Beurden, Shell’s chief executive, expressed as recently as August. At the time, he said that Shell’s holdings in the Alaskan Arctic could be “multiple times” more bountiful than the enormous fields in the Gulf of Mexico. “We can’t be driven by today’s, tomorrow’s, or next year’s, or last year’s oil price,” he said.
這一決策是殼牌公司態度的重大轉變。遲至8月，殼牌公司首席執行官本·範伯登(Ben van Beurden)還曾對該項目表達過信心。當時，範伯爾登說，殼牌在阿拉斯加附近的北極水域擁有的項目，產量可能比墨西哥灣巨大的油田大上“好幾倍”。“我們不能根據今天、明天、明年，或者去年的油價採取行動，”他說。
Shell’s current foray into the Alaska offshore began under Mr. van Beurden’s predecessors, and he has always been concerned about the project’s costs and risks. Soon after he became chief executive in 2014, he temporarily halted drilling in Alaska because of legal and regulatory issues.
早在範伯登的前任的領導下，殼牌就開始了眼下在阿拉斯加沿海的活動。而範伯登一直對該項目的成本和風險心存疑慮。2014年出任首席執行官後不久，他就曾因法律和監管問題一度叫停了在阿拉斯加的鑽探活動。
He came around to the view that the potential bonanza was worth the expense and headaches, but now that drilling has produced an unexpectedly poor result, he may have decided to follow his original instincts and call a halt.
他後來轉而認爲，爲了潛在的豐厚利潤，費用和麻煩事是值得的。但既然鑽探結果出乎意料的糟糕，他可能決定遵從最初的直覺，叫停鑽探活動。
“This first dry well seems to have been the trigger for the C.E.O. to pull the plug on their Alaska exploration campaign,” said Oswald Clint, an analyst at Bernstein Research in London.
“第一口枯井似乎是這位首席執行官叫停阿拉斯加的勘探活動的導火索，”倫敦伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)的分析師奧斯瓦爾德·克林特(Oswald Clint)說。
The Alaska operations have cost billions of dollars. Shell said the value of Alaska drilling on its balance sheet was $3.1 billion and that it had a further $1.1 billion in contractual commitments, probably for items like drilling rigs. The company said it would take write-offs as a result of the decision to halt drilling.
阿拉斯加的行動已經耗費了數十億美元。殼牌表示，在其資產負債表上，阿拉斯加鑽探活動的價值是31億美元，還有11億美元的合同承諾額，可能是爲鑽臺等設備準備的。該公司稱，因爲決定停止鑽探，公司會進行減記。
“Shell continues to see important exploration potential” in offshore Alaska, Marvin E. Odum, president of Shell Oil, said in a statement. “However, this is clearly a disappointing outcome.”
在阿拉斯加沿海地區，“殼牌依然認爲有巨大的勘探潛力，”殼牌石油總裁馬文·E·奧德姆(Marvin E. Odum)在一則聲明中說。“然而，這顯然是一個令人失望的結果。”
