石油市場走勢不利於沙特改革

Even five years ago, Saudi Arabia was in an economically enviable position. A few unsettling trends were unfolding: hybrid and electric cars were becoming more common and oil companies were driving wells across the shale basins of the US. But neither green vehicles nor shale oil was price competitive with their conventional predecessors, and Brent crude, the global oil price benchmark, was over $100.

5年前，從經濟上來說，沙特阿拉伯還很令人羨慕。當時已經出現了一些不妙的趨勢：混合動力汽車和電動汽車越來越常見；石油公司在美國各個頁岩盆地上鑽井。但是，不論是綠色能源汽車還是頁岩油，在價格上都競爭不過傳統的石油。當時全球基準油價——布倫特(Brent)原油價格每桶超過100美元。

No one envies the Saudi Arabians now. Yes, the Brent price has rebounded from its of 2015-16 lows to stabilise over $50. At the Opec meeting in Vienna this week the delegates agreed to extend production curbs for another nine months.

如今，沒人羨慕沙特人了。沒錯，布倫特油價已從2015至2016年間的低點反彈，穩定在每桶50美元上方。在本週於維也納召開的歐佩克(Opec)會議上，代表們同意將限產協議延長9個月。

But the long-term supply and demand dynamics for oil continue to be at best unpredictable and at worst simply bearish. This is the reason for, and the greatest threat to, Saudi efforts to reform its unbalanced economy. Saudi Arabia must be weaned off oil; yet that process, which is causing domestic tension, can only be made palatable by oil money.

然而，石油的長期供需態勢並沒有改變，往好裏說是不可預測，往差裏說就完全是看跌的。這正是沙特努力改革不均衡的國內經濟的原因所在，也是此番改革最大的威脅。沙特必須擺脫對石油的依賴；然而，只有石油資金才能讓改革過程變得能夠爲人們所接受——目前改革在沙特國內造成了緊張氣氛。

When the Saudis increased oil production in 2014, they hoped that tumbling prices would drive US shale producers out of business. The price pressure had almost the opposite effect: some shale drillers went bust, but the survivors became much more efficient. Production costs have fallen, on average, by 40 per cent. Many drillers have emerged from bankruptcy with cleaner balance sheets, too. Some of the US shale players can maintain output with oil at $40. Many are comfortable at $50, as demonstrated by the recent rally in energy company bonds. The number of US shale wells has rebounded strongly.

2014年沙特人擴大石油產量時，他們希望油價暴跌會讓美國頁岩油生產商經營不下去。最終，價格壓力產生了幾乎完全相反的效果：部分頁岩油開採商破產了，那些倖存下來的卻明顯提高了效率。頁岩油生產成本平均下降了40%。許多生產商走出破產後，資產負債表乾淨了許多。部分美國頁岩油生產商能夠在油價處於每桶40美元的情況下維持生產。而在油價處於每桶50美元的情況下，許多生產商日子都過得很安逸，能源企業債券近期的上漲就印證了這點。美國頁岩油井的數目已強勁反彈。

An accelerating green vehicle industry is the single biggest threat to oil demand. Electric cars still account for less than 1 per cent of the global market but that slice is growing extremely fast. In 2016, sales grew 42 per cent. Improvement in battery technology is making electric cars more attractive by increasing their range. Battery prices are falling fast, too. By 2020, Bloomberg estimates, there will be 120 electric car models available. Every major car manufacturer will be in the market.

加速發展的綠色能源汽車行業對石油需求構成了最大的威脅。電動汽車佔全球市場的份額仍然不到1%，不過其增長卻極爲迅速。2016年，電動汽車銷量增長了42%。電池技術的改進增強了電動汽車的續航能力，從而提高了這類汽車的吸引力。電池的價格也降得很快。彭博(Bloomberg)估計，到2020年市面上將有120款電動汽車。所有大型汽車製造商都會進入該市場。

The possibility that oil prices could stay low or fall further makes the economic and political situation in Saudi Arabia dangerous. The country has a rapidly growing population, an economy dominated by the state, and a tradition of rich benefits for citizens. The combination is no longer sustainable as reflected in a fiscal deficit that last year hit $75bn, or one-tenth of domestic output.

油價保持低位或進一步下跌的可能性令沙特的經濟和政治形勢變得十分危險。該國人口增長迅速，經濟由國家主導，並且有公民享受高福利的傳統。這些情況並存的局面將難以爲繼，去年沙特的財政赤字達到了750億美元，相當於國內生產總值(GDP)的十分之一。

The government is well aware of the problem. Mohammed bin Salman, the deputy crown prince, is leading a reform effort that combines investment in non-oil industries with cuts to domestic energy subsidies, shrinking the size of the state, and selling a stake in the state oil company. The work is proving difficult: a decision to cut benefits to civil servants was reversed last month. This is not surprising in a country where close to 70 per cent of working citizens are in the employ of the state. That the reversal came in just six months showed, however, that the government is on a short tether.

沙特政府很清楚問題出在哪裏。沙特副王儲穆罕默德?本?薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)正在負責實施一項綜合改革計劃，投資非石油工業，同時削減國內能源補貼、縮小政府規模並出售國有石油公司的股權。這項工作十分艱難：上個月，有關削減公務員福利的決定被撤銷。在這個將近70%的勞動者受僱於政府的國家，這一結果並不令人意外。然而，該決定短短6個月就被撤銷，表明了沙特政府在改革上難以有所作爲。

The Saudi monarchy is, for better or worse, a political cornerstone in a febrile region. It is already squarely in Isis’ sights. If it weakens, the resulting power vacuum will have unpredictable consequences. An unstable oil market, by threatening reform efforts, increases these risks. The shale boom, green technology, and lower demand for oil are, on balance, facts to be celebrated. They will have political consequences, though, and the world must be ready.

不管是好是壞，沙特王國都是這個熱點地區的政治基石。它已在“伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)的視線之內。如果沙特國力衰弱，隨之而來的權力真空將造成不可預知的後果。不穩定的石油市場會危及改革努力，從而加大這些風險。總的來說，頁岩油產業的蓬勃發展、綠色能源技術、以及石油需求降低都是值得慶祝的事。不過，這些因素將帶來政治後果，對此世界必須有所準備。