玄永哲事件背後的朝鮮政治趨勢

When North Korea’s leading girl group took to a Pyongyang stage late last month to entertain a beige-clad military audience with such patriotic numbers as “I Like My Country the Most”, the guest of honour was the defence minister, Hyon Yong Chol.

上個月末，當朝鮮頂尖女子樂團在平壤爲身着軍裝的部隊官兵登臺獻藝，演唱《光輝的祖國》等愛國歌曲時，朝鮮人民武力部部長玄永哲(Hyon Yong Chol)正是臺下的貴賓。

Within three days Hyon was dead, according to South Korean spies, executed with an anti-aircraft gun for such acts of disrespect as falling asleep during a speech by supreme leader Kim Jong Un.

據韓國情報機構表示，不到3天玄永哲就死了，他因爲在朝鮮最高領袖金正恩講話時打瞌睡等不敬行爲而被高射炮處決。

Such a rapid downfall would be far from unprecedented under Mr Kim, who has undertaken what appears to be the most sweeping purge of top North Korean officials for decades.

如此迅速的落馬，在金正恩統治下的朝鮮算不上史無前例，金正恩對朝鮮高層官員進行了一場似乎是幾十年來最大規模的清洗。

But the fact that references to Hyon’s activities can still be seen on state media has sparked scepticism from some analysts, highlighting the huge difficulty in assessing the opaque political situation in North Korea as Mr Kim seeks to consolidate his grip on power.

但是，玄永哲出席活動的報道仍然出現在朝鮮國家媒體上，引起了一些分析人士的懷疑，這也凸顯了對朝鮮不透明的政治局面實施評估的難度，尤其此時金正恩正在尋求鞏固權力之際。

The official Rodong Sinmun newspaper’s last mention of Hyon — of his presence at the Moranbong Band concert — was published on April 30. That casts doubt over the South Korean National Intelligence Service’s claim that he was executed no later than that date, according to Cheong Seong-chang, an analyst at the Sejong Institute think-tank.

朝鮮官方報紙《勞動新聞》(Rodong Sinmun)最後一次提到玄永哲的那一期出版於4月30日——他出席觀看牡丹峯樂團(Moranbong Band)演出。韓國智庫機構世宗研究院(Sejong Institute)的研究員鄭相昌(Cheong Seong-chang)表示，這使人們對韓國國家情報院（South Korean National Intelligence Service，簡稱NIS）聲稱玄永哲被處決的日期不晚於那天的說法產生懷疑。

State news websites still show stories mentioning Hyon, who also appeared briefly in a film about Kim Jong Un that was shown on state television every day for a week from last Tuesday.

朝鮮國家新聞網站仍然顯示着有玄永哲的報道，在朝鮮國家電視臺自上週二開始每天播放的一部關於金正恩的影片中，他也有短暫露面。

“When someone is purged in North Korea, he is no longer mentioned in North Korean media and his records are erased in official documents,” said Koh Yu-hwan, a professor at Seoul’s Dongguk University. “We should wait and see to verify the NIS’s claim.”

“在朝鮮，當某個人遭到清洗，他就不再被朝鮮媒體提及，其在官方文件中的記錄也會被抹去，”首爾東國大學(Dongguk University)教授高有煥(Koh Yu-hwan)稱，“我們應該等待進一步的消息來覈實NIS的說法。”

The NIS has given no details of how it acquires information on the North Korean political scene

NIS並未給出它如何獲得朝鮮政壇情報的具體細節。

But few question the notion that Mr Kim is presiding over extraordinary churn in the senior ranks of the state. Probably still in his late twenties when he took charge in December 2011, he lacked the long years of preparation for power enjoyed by his father, and had to assert his authority over a cadre of much older senior military figures.

但是，沒有多少人質疑金正恩正對朝鮮高層進行異常洗牌的說法。2011年12月上臺時，金正恩或許還不到30歲，他不像他父親那樣，在掌權前有多年的準備時間，他不得不在一批年齡比他大得多的軍隊資深人物面前確立權威。

After seven months Mr Kim replaced Ri Yong Ho, a top officer analysts believed had been assigned by Kim Jong Il to mentor his son during his first days in power. Within two years of taking office, Mr Kim had replaced about half the country’s top 218 officials, according to the NIS.

7個月之後，金正恩撤掉了李英浩(Ri Yong-­ho)，後者被分析人士認爲是金正日(Kim Jong Il)安排在其子執政初期進行輔佐的頂級軍官。據NIS消息，金正恩上臺不到兩年，朝鮮218名頂級官員就有約一半遭到撤換。

The most prominent casualty was Jang Song Thaek, Mr Kim’s top adviser and uncle by marriage, who was executed in December 2013 for alleged offences including plotting a coup. Jang’s downfall was reported by the NIS before it was announced by Pyongyang, bolstering the perceived credibility of the agency’s claims of a recent uptick in executions of senior officials.

落馬高層中最著名的是金正恩的姑父、頭號輔政張成澤(Jang Song Thaek)。張成澤因策劃政變等指控於2013年12月被處決。在平壤方面宣佈這個消息之前，NIS就通報了張成澤的落馬，這支撐了該機構消息的可信度，該機構聲稱最近朝鮮高級官員被處決事件有所增加。

Forty-one were put to death in 2014 and 15 so far this year, the NIS told lawmakers last month, for such offences as questioning Mr Kim’s decision on a new building’s design. The allegation that anti-aircraft fire was used to kill Hyon follows a report last month by the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, which said satellite photography suggested the use of such weapons in a group execution last October.

NIS上月告訴立法者，2014年有41名朝鮮高官遭處決，今年到目前爲止已有15人遭處決，罪名包括質疑金正恩對一座新大樓設計的決定等。在朝鮮用高射炮處決玄永哲的說法傳出之前，美國非政府組織朝鮮人權委員會(Committee for Human Rights in North Korea)上月發佈一份報告稱，衛星照片顯示朝鮮在去年10月曾使用這類武器實施了一次集體處決。

The apparent growing bloodshed suggests to some observers that Mr Kim is struggling to maintain the loyalty of key lieutenants.

一些觀察家認爲，被處決官員看上去在增多，這表明金正恩很難維持關鍵副手的忠誠。

“If Hyon was really purged, it means Kim Jong Un is cornered, and the high-level officials have turned their back to him,” says Kang Myung-do, who worked for Pyongyang’s defence ministry before fleeing to the South, where he teaches at Kyungmin University.

“如果玄永哲真的遭到整肅，這意味着金正恩已被逼至絕境，高級別官員已不再支持他，”曾在朝鮮人民武力部任職，後逃往韓國並在韓國慶旼大學(Kyungmin University)任教的姜明道（Kang Myung-do，音譯）說。

But others argue that the leader appears to have pared the power of the military elite, directing increasing authority to civilian officials such as Hwang Pyong So, who rose through the influential Organisation and Guidance Department of the Korean Workers’ party. Mr Hwang became vice-marshal last year and his prominent coverage in state media suggests he is established as Mr Kim’s most senior official.

但其他人認爲，金正恩似乎已經削弱軍隊精英的權力，將越來越多的權威賦予黃炳誓(Hwang Pyong So)等文職官員。黃炳誓晉升前，在頗具權勢的朝鮮勞動黨(Korean Workers' Party)組織指導部(Organisation and Guidance Department)任職。去年黃炳誓被授予次帥軍銜，他在朝鮮官方媒體的報道中佔據顯眼位置，表明他已被確立爲金正恩手下的最高級官員。

“The frequent reshuffling shows he is in full control,” says Chung Young-tae, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification. “Now that the North Korean economy has become slightly better than before, he is trying to strengthen the Communist party’s role to guard against the military.”

“頻繁的洗牌表明他對局面有完全的掌控， ”韓國統一研究院(Korea Institute for National Unification)研究員鄭永泰(Chung Young-tae)表示，“現在朝鮮經濟比過去略微好一些，他正試圖加強共產黨的地位，以防範軍方。”

Most analysts still perceive North Korea’s military as an important political force, however, and Mr Kim has left little scope for accusations he is soft on defence, despite the focus on boosting living standards and the national economy in his public pronouncements.

然而，大多數分析人士依然將朝鮮軍方視爲一隻重要的政治力量。儘管金正恩的公開講話着重強調提高生活水平和改善國民經濟，但他並未給外界留下多少可以指責他在國防上表現軟弱的話柄。

Chinese experts believe North Korea is producing nuclear weapons at a rapid pace: they think it had up to 20 at the end of last year, and could double that by the end of next year, according to Siegfried Hecker, a nuclear scientist briefed on their findings.

核科學家西格弗裏德•黑克爾(Siegfried Hecker)根據中國專家的調查稱，中國專家相信朝鮮正迅速生產核武器：他們認爲朝鮮在去年年底就擁有至多20枚核武，在明年年底這個數字可能會翻一番。

Last Saturday Pyongyang released footage that purported to show Mr Kim enthusiastically observing the launch of a ballistic missile from a submarine. While this would increase the potential nuclear threat from North Korea, the footage won a sceptical response from analysts such as Joseph Bermudez of AllSource Analysis, who said the rocket was more likely to have been launched from a submerged barge.

上週六，平壤方面公開了一段錄像。該錄像號稱顯示的是，金正恩正滿懷熱情地觀看潛艇發射一枚彈道導彈。該錄像本應提升朝鮮的潛在覈威脅，但AllSource Analysis的約瑟夫•貝穆德斯(Joseph Bermudez)等分析師對該錄像的真實性表示懷疑，稱該導彈更有可能是從一艘沉入水中的駁船上發射出來的。

Whatever the level of Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities, such grandstanding by Mr Kim is an important part of his efforts to keep domestic control, says Mr Koh.

不管朝鮮的核能力水平有多高，金正恩的這種大肆張揚是其保持對國內控制努力的一部分，高有煥教授說。

“He is trying to prevent internal resistance by heightening tension externally and through fear politics at home,” says Mr Koh. “But this erratic rule cannot last for a long time. He will likely become more conciliatory once his power base becomes solid.”

“他試圖通過加劇外部緊張局勢和國內的恐懼政治來防止內部反抗，”高教授表示，“但這種反覆無常的統治無法長久。在夯實權力基礎後，他可能會變得更爲溫和。”