希拉里再度問鼎白宮的勝算

It was possibly the most anticipated declaration in US electoral history. Yet, for all the waiting, Hillary Clinton’s presidential launch was notably light on content. In her opening video, she said she would hit the road to “earn” America’s vote. That struck the right note. The first rule of Mrs Clinton’s second White House bid is that she must avoid giving any hint of entitlement. Beyond that, however, there is little sense of what Mrs Clinton would do if she won the presidency. Unless and until she sets this out, voters will be right to question her motives.

這可能是美國選舉歷史上最令人期待的一份聲明瞭。不過，儘管等了這麼久，希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)的啓動總統競選的內容明顯有些輕描淡寫。她在開場白視頻中表示，她將上路“贏得”美國的選票。她這麼講是恰到好處。希拉里第二次向白宮發起衝擊的第一條準則，是她必須避免留下任何她有資格的暗示。不過，除此之外，目前還看不出來她如果獲勝會如何施政。除非她把這一點闡述明白，選民們將有理由質疑她的動機。

The challenge is least steep on foreign policy. A former US secretary of state, Mrs Clinton will be the most experienced potential nominee in either party. Detractors argue that she achieved little of note in her four years in the job. That is unfair. While there are no groundbreaking treaties to which she can point, she helped to put in place President Barack Obama’s welcome course correction from George W Bush’s aggressive unilateralism.

挑戰最小的是外交政策領域。作爲美國前國務卿，在兩黨中來看希拉里都將是最有經驗的潛在候選人。貶低她的人認爲，她在4年任期中基本沒有什麼可圈可點。這一說法是不公平的。儘管她無法說自己達成了具有突破性的條約，但她幫助總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)扭轉了小布什(George W Bush)的激進單邊主義路線，回到了廣爲接受的正途。

Moreover, it was Mrs Clinton who framed Mr Obama’s “pivot to Asia”. The logic of this manoeuvre is enduring. Although the turmoil in the Middle East continues, this should not undermine the enhanced US focus on Asia. Mrs Clinton can also claim some credit for the Iran nuclear framework hammered out by John Kerry, her successor, earlier this month. She helped to orchestrate the sanctions that brought Iran to the negotiating table.

此外，奧巴馬的“亞洲再平衡”(pivot to Asia)戰略正是希拉里制定的。這一動作的邏輯是持久的。儘管中東混亂局勢在繼續，卻不應妨礙美國加強對亞洲的關注。希拉里也可以聲稱其繼任者約翰•克里(John Kerry)本月早些時候達成的伊朗核協議框架有她的一份功勞。她幫助策劃了對伊制裁，纔將伊朗拉到了談判桌前。

As the 2016 campaign heats up, Mrs Clinton will be called on to defend Mr Obama’s legacy. She cannot repudiate its basic contours. For political reasons, she will be tempted to distance herself from the Iran deal in order to win the support of the more hawkish pro-Israel lobbyists. She should resist. Assuming it can be finalised, an Iran pact will be very much in America’s national interest. But Mrs Clinton can, and should, signal a greater willingness than Mr Obama to engage the world in more sustained US diplomacy. If she is mildly more hawkish than Mr Obama, that is no sin. Her centrist instincts are broadly aligned with the American public’s mood. As she has let it be known, Mr Obama’s “don’t’ do stupid stuff” mantra does not amount to a foreign policy doctrine.

隨着2016年總統競選活動的升溫，希拉里將責無旁貸地捍衛奧巴馬的遺產。她不可能批判其基本框架。出於政治原因，她應該抵制住誘惑，遠離伊朗協議，以便贏得立場更強硬的親以色列遊說勢力的支持。假設最終能敲定一份伊朗協議，那麼它將非常符合美國的利益。但希拉里可以且應該展現示出，同奧巴馬相比，她更願意通過更具持續性的美國外交與世界互動。如果她的立場比奧巴馬更顯強硬，那也沒什麼不對。她偏向中間立場的本能基本上契合美國公衆的情緒。正如她讓外界知道的，奧巴馬的“不做蠢事”原則並不構成一項外交政策信條。

Mrs Clinton’s bigger challenge is to convince voters that she will have more luck than Mr Obama in breaking Washington’s gridlock. In terms of substance, there is little to differentiate Mrs Clinton’s promise to revive the fortunes of the squeezed middle from the policies that Mr Obama has failed to push through Congress. Whether it is more infrastructure investment, better worker training, a corporate tax overhaul or early childhood learning, Mr Obama’s priorities are broadly the right ones. Mrs Clinton’s task is to convince voters she can create the “warm purple space” necessary for bipartisan action. The odds are not good. Fairly, or not, Mrs Clinton is just as polarising a figure as Mr Obama and the electoral map makes it very unlikely the Democrats will regain control of Congress in 2016. Mrs Clinton must somehow explain how she would better navigate a system that has all but broken down.

希拉里面臨的更大挑戰是讓選民相信，在打破美國政治僵局方面，她比奧巴馬運氣好。本質上而言，希拉里提出的改善受擠壓的中產命運的承諾，與奧巴馬未能在國會獲得通過的政策幾乎沒有什麼差異。不管是擴大基礎設施投資、加強員工培訓、企業稅改革還是兒童早期教育，奧巴馬的優先任務基本上都是正確的。希拉里的任務是讓選民相信她能夠創造一個兩黨行動所必需的“溫暖紫色空間”（“warm purple space”，在美國紅色代表共和黨，藍色代表民主黨，紫色意味着介於紅和藍之間，即偏中間立場，編者注）。不過她的勝算並不大。不管公平與否，希拉里只是一個與奧巴馬一樣立場很明確的人物，從目前的選情來看，民主黨極不可能在2016年重新獲得國會控制權。希拉里必須用某種方法解釋她將如何更好的駕馭這個已幾近瓦解的體系。

The big difference from 2008 is that Mrs Clinton is a strong favourite to win the Democratic nomination this time. That gives her the luxury of avoiding having to tack too far to the left in order to appeal to the liberal base. Mrs Clinton should use that leeway to prepare a solid general election campaign. Whether her Republican opponent is Jeb Bush, or someone else, the battle ahead is certain to be gruelling. Mrs Clinton is not destined to win. As she said on Sunday, the presidency is a job that must be earned.

與2008年的一個重要不同之處在於，這一次希拉里是一個備受青睞、有望贏得民主黨提名的強有力人選。這讓她可以不必爲了迎合自由派的選民基礎而過多的轉向左派。希拉里應利用這種自由度制定一個穩健的大選計劃。不管她的共和黨對手是傑布•布什(Jeb Bush)還是其他人，未來的戰鬥必定艱苦。希拉里並非註定會贏。正如她在上週日所說的，總統職務本就是一份需要去努力爭取的工作。