希拉里問鼎白宮不易 奧巴馬身後誰主沉浮
For a while – four years in fact – it looked as though Hillary Clinton had put the past behind her. As America’s top diplomat, she enjoyed by far the highest ratings of any US figure. Her popularity abroad was matched by appreciation at home for the grace with which she buried the hatchet with Barack Obama. Americans most admire politicians who seem to be above politics. Mrs Clinton had a taste of that. Then she quit as secretary of state (to prepare for her second White House bid). She has been losing altitude ever since. The worry among Democrats is her woes are only a foretaste of what is to come. They are probably right.
Like almost every Clinton “scandal”, there is less than meets the eye to revelations that Mrs Clinton used a private account for her official emails. The discovery that she routed her government correspondence through a “homebrew” server is the kind of exposé that sends Washington into a tailspin but barely registers beyond. From the Whitewater investigations during Bill Clinton’s presidency in the 1990s to the ructions over the 2012 Benghazi murders of four US diplomats, the smoking gun is always just beyond reach. Failure to find one is why Whitewater prosecutors were sidetracked into Mr Clinton’s dalliance with Monica Lewinsky. It is also the path by which the Benghazi probes stumbled on Mrs Clinton’s home server.
有人爆出，希拉里曾利用個人賬戶收發官方電郵。與幾乎所有與克林頓夫婦相關的“醜聞”一樣，這些爆料不像看上去那麼複雜。據悉，她通過設在家中的服務器收發政府郵件，這種爆料在華盛頓引發軒然大波，但除此之外沒什麼人關心。從比爾•克林頓(Bill Clinton)上世紀90年代擔任總統期間的白水事件(Whitewater)調查，到圍繞2012年班加西美國領事館遇襲案（導致4名美國外交官遇難）的爭議，人們總是無法找到確鑿的證據證明克林頓夫婦有過錯。正因如此，白水事件的檢方將矛頭轉向克林頓與莫尼卡•萊溫斯基(Monica Lewinsky)的緋聞。同樣，班加西案的調查偶然發現了希拉里安在家中的服務器。With the Clintons there is always some cover-up waiting to be unearthed. Nearly a quarter of a century of probes — from Little Rock to Washington — have failed to bring them down. Yet there is also more to “homebrew” than meets the eye. Mrs Clinton was technically within the law in using a private account. It is possible her home server was more secure than the State Department’s porous system. None of this really matters. To Mrs Clinton’s enemies, the fact that a trove of private emails exist is invitation to conspiracy. It is also an example of how she plays by different rules. Even President Obama uses official email. Mrs Clinton’s pursuers are unlikely to give up until every one of her emails has been subpoenaed.
在克林頓夫婦身上，總有一些被掩蓋的事情等着被揭露。近25年的調查（從阿肯色州的小石城到華盛頓）都沒能打倒他們。但此次“電郵門”事件要比看上去複雜。從技術上說，希拉里使用個人賬戶是合法的。她設在家中的服務器可能比美國國務院漏洞百出的系統更安全。這些其實都不重要。對於希拉里的敵人而言，大量私人電郵的存在本身就意味着可能有什麼陰謀。這也是她不按常理出牌的一個例子。就連奧巴馬總統也使用官方電郵。在希拉里的全部電郵都被傳喚之前，追擊她的人是不太可能放棄的。
“Homebrew” highlights three big problems facing Mrs Clinton. First, the Democratic party is suffering from Clinton fatigue. Given the lack of exciting alternatives, Democrats have little choice but to stick with her through hell or high water. Some of them would take that literally. The contrast with the Republican field, which is already crowded with names, is stark. Now would be a good moment for an unknown talent from Illinois with a Muslim middle name to take Democrats by storm. But that is unlikely to happen twice. Even among Mrs Clinton’s most loyal backers, the mood is one of grim determination. They are steeling for trial by ordeal — not a coronation.
“電郵門”事件突顯出希拉里面臨的三大問題。首先，民主黨正經歷“克林頓”審美疲勞。由於缺乏其他令人振奮的候選人，該黨別無選擇，只能在任何情況下力挺希拉里。其中一些人真的會竭盡全力。與“人才濟濟”的共和黨相比，這一點相當明顯。現在應該有一個來自伊利諾伊州、有一個穆斯林中間名、不知名的人物登場，讓民主黨振作起來。但這不太可能發現兩次。甚至在希拉里最忠實的支持者中，也洋溢着一種堅韌決心的情緒。他們正下決心忍受痛苦的煎熬，而非加冕禮。Second, Mrs Clinton is running against herself, which is the worst of both worlds. The Clintons are at their best with their backs to the wall. Mr Clinton’s finest campaign moment came after he was written off in 1991 only to resurge as the “comeback kid” in the New Hampshire primary. Mrs Clinton’s most electrifying phase was in 2008 after she had been upended by Mr Obama and was fighting for her pride. She won state after state, though it was already too late. This time, Mrs Clinton faces no plausible rival. Once again she is the “inevitable nominee”, with the inflated expectations that brings. If she fails to win each primary convincingly, the sharks will be quick to smell blood.
第二，希拉里正在同自己競選，這種狀況是最糟糕的。克林頓夫婦往往在背水一戰時進入最佳狀態。克林頓最棒的競選時刻莫過於1991年他被人放棄希望，卻又在新罕布什爾州的初選中捲土重來。希拉里最令人振奮的階段是在2008年被奧巴馬奪走風頭之後，繼續爲自己的尊嚴而戰。她贏得了一個又一個州，儘管已經太遲。這一次，希拉里不再面對任何可信的對手。她再次成爲“不可避免的被提名人”，伴隨着與之俱來的過高期望。如果她不能令人信服地拿下每一場初選，鯊魚很快就會聞到血腥。Third, Mrs Clinton’s distrust of the media is self-fulfilling. She has genuine reasons for concern. As First Lady, she was the target of more scurrilous journalism than any figure in recent memory. Madcap books were written about how the Clintons assassinated their enemies and looted public funds. But there was also plenty of legitimate critical journalism. After a while, Mrs Clinton did not seem to know the difference. She shrouded her healthcare reform effort in secrecy, then saw the product picked apart by supposed allies. The wrong lesson was drawn. Mrs Clinton withdrew even further into her circle of trust. Sticking with inveterate loyalists undid her campaign in 2008. It could do so again. To win, she must engage people openly, including the media.
第三，希拉里對媒體的不信任正在自我應驗。她有真誠的理由對媒體感到擔憂。作爲第一夫人，她受到的輿論誹謗比我們近期記憶中的任何人物都要多。一些荒唐的書描寫了克林頓夫婦如何暗殺他們的敵人並侵吞公款。但也存在很多正當的批評報道。過了一段時間後，希拉里似乎搞不清它們之間的差別。她把自己的醫療改革努力搞得神神祕祕，結果卻看到自己的心血被所謂的盟友說得一文不值。但希拉里吸取了錯誤的教訓。她進一步退縮回自己信任的小圈子。重用堅定支持者毀掉了希拉里2008年的競選。這種情況可能會再次出現。要獲得勝利，她必須公開地與社會各界打交道，包括媒體。There are signs that Mrs Clinton has corrected some of her bad habits. Picking John Podesta to chair her campaign, as she is expected to do, would be a good step. As Mr Obama’s second-term adviser, Mr Podesta helped to reboot a White House that was also damaged by overreliance on insiders. He did much the same for Mr Clinton after he was impeached over the Lewinsky scandal. He will have to dig deep for Mrs Clinton. The New York Times revelation that foreign governments, from Azerbaijan to Qatar, gave money to her husband’s Clinton Foundation while she was secretary of state is unlikely to go away. The “homebrew” scandal has given it stronger legs. Ill-wishers will be scouring Mrs Clinton’s emails for evidence
有跡象顯示，希拉里已改正了自己的某些壞習慣。選擇約翰•波德斯塔(John Podesta)來主持她的競選（人們期望她會這麼做）將是很好的一步。作爲奧巴馬第二任期的顧問，波德斯塔幫助重啓了因過度信賴內部人士而受損的白宮。他也這樣幫助過克林頓，那是在後者因萊溫斯基醜聞遭到彈劾之後。他將不得不爲希拉里絞盡腦汁。據《紐約時報》(New York Times)披露，希拉里擔任國務卿期間，從阿塞拜疆到卡塔爾的外國政府曾向她丈夫的克林頓基金會(Clinton Foundation)捐款。這件事不太可能平息。“電郵門”醜聞助長了它的發酵。幸災樂禍的人將在希拉里的郵件裏搜尋證據，證明她知曉這些捐款。關於她促成了這些捐款的任何線索都可能是致命的。she was aware of such donations. Any hint that she facilitated them could be are still weeks from Mrs Clinton’s official campaign launch — possibly months. Yet it is already encountering heavy turbulence. Democrats have little choice but to climb aboard. They should fasten their seatbelts and put on the headphones. The next 18 months are going to be noisy.
距離希拉里正式啓動競選還有幾周——也可能是幾個月。但此次競選已經遭遇了強氣流。民主黨人別無選擇，只能爬上船。他們應該繫好安全帶、戴上耳機。未來18個月將充滿爭吵。
