默克爾願爲世界安定付出代價

Vladimir Putin spent five years in the former communist German Democratic Republic in the 1980s as an intelligence officer for the Soviet KGB. He prides himself on his understanding of Germany.

上世紀80年代，身爲蘇聯克格勃(KGB)情報官的弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)曾在前社會主義國家——民主德國(German Democratic Republic，即東德)待了5年。他爲自己對德國的瞭解而自豪。

Yet the Russian president badly miscalculated the mood and determination of Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, over the current crisis in Ukraine. His experience was obviously out of date.

然而，作爲俄羅斯總統的他嚴重誤判了德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)在當前烏克蘭危機上的態度和決心。他的經驗明顯已經過時。

When the 28 EU member states agreed to impose tougher sanctions on Russia last month because of Moscow’s support for armed separatists in the Ukrainian civil war, the decision was greeted with shock in the Kremlin. Mr Putin had expected the German chancellor to resist taking any action that would seriously affect German exporters.

上月，因莫斯科在烏克蘭內戰中支持武裝分裂分子，歐盟(EU)28個成員國一致同意，對俄羅斯採取更嚴厲的制裁。這個決議讓克里姆林宮震驚。普京原以爲默克爾會反對採取任何嚴重影響德國出口商的行動。

He was wrong. The sanctions package was driven by Berlin. Central to German policy, led Ms Merkel and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, foreign minister, was determination to maintain a united European front.

他錯了。歐盟的一攬子制裁方案正是由德國推動的。德國政策的核心，引導默克爾和德國外長弗蘭克-沃爾特•施泰因邁爾(Frank-Walter Steinmeier)行動的，是維持歐洲統一陣線的決心。

“Putin is an old-style KGB operator. He sees everything as a zero-sum game. He keeps different options open and tries to divide the EU and the west through bilateral contacts and sectoral contacts with business,” says Andreas Schockenhoff, deputy chairman of Ms Merkel’s Christian Democrats in the German Bundestag.

“普京有着老派克格勃的作風。他認爲一切事情都是零和遊戲。他總是保留不同的選擇，並試圖通過雙邊往來和行業性的商業來往分裂歐盟和西方，”默克爾領導的基民盟(Christian Democrats)的副主席安德烈亞斯•朔肯霍夫(Andreas Schockenhoff)在德國聯邦議院(Bundestag)表示。

“The chancellor spent a huge amount of time and energy to get a united European position and bring business on board.”

“總理花了大量時間和精力促成歐洲的統一立場，讓事情走上正軌。”

Mr Putin is not the first global leader to misread Ms Merkel. David Cameron, UK prime minister, did the same when he sought her backing to block the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg as the next EU commission president. But Mr Putin’s miscalculation is potentially far more serious.

在世界領導人中，普京不是第一個誤讀默克爾的。英國首相戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)曾爲阻止盧森堡前首相讓-克洛德•容克(Jean-Claude Juncker)出任下屆歐盟委員會(EU commission)主席而尋求默克爾的支持，他也錯看了默克爾。但是普京誤判的後果可能要嚴重得多。

His actions in Ukraine, since the Russian annexation of Crimea in March, have alienated the one European leader capable of finding a diplomatic solution. He dug himself into a hole without an exit strategy.

在俄羅斯於今年3月吞併克里米亞後，普京在烏克蘭事務上的所作所爲，導致唯一有能力找到外交解決方案的歐洲領導人與他疏遠了。普京讓自己陷入了一個沒有出路的困境。

Yet the signals from Berlin have been there for months. Ever since Mr Putin’s return to power as president in 2012, Ms Merkel has shown her unhappiness at the authoritarian and nationalist drift in the Kremlin. She was appalled by Russia’s seizure of Crimea, unilaterally altering an agreed international border.

然而柏林方面其實從數月前就開始釋放信號了。自2012年普京重返總統寶座以來，默克爾對克里姆林宮轉向威權和民族主義就表露了自己的不滿。俄羅斯奪取克里米亞，單方面改變公認的國際邊界的行爲讓默克爾震驚。

She finally lost trust in Mr Putin, according to senior officials, because she believed he lied to her repeatedly (they have had more than 30 telephone calls) about Russia’s involvement and its willingness to restrain the separatists. Trust matters a lot to the chancellor.

根據一些高官的說法，默克爾最終失去了對普京的信任，因爲在俄方插手烏克蘭事務及約束分裂分子方面，她認爲普京屢次對她說了謊（他們的通電話次數超過了三十次）。對默克爾來說，信任事關重大。

Ms Merkel took the lead over EU sanctions reluctantly. Her instinct to seek a peaceful solution saw her pilloried in Kiev, London and Washington as a Moscow sympathiser. But she was always clear that Russia must compromise or face consequences.

在歐盟制裁方面，默克爾並非情願地帶了頭。她本能地尋求和平解決方案，這使她在烏克蘭、英國和美國被抨擊爲同情俄羅斯的人。但她一直都很清楚，俄羅斯必須作出讓步，否則就要承擔後果。

The chancellor’s tough line in the face of Mr Putin’s intransigence has not happened in isolation. Indeed, the Ukraine crisis accelerated a rethinking of German foreign policy that was already under way.

面對普京的頑固不化，默克爾採取了強硬立場——這並非一個孤立現象。事實上，德國已經在反思外交政策，烏克蘭危機加速了這個過程。

Hitherto, Germany has been the dominant EU partner on questions to do with the eurozone crisis – on the face of it, matters of economic and fiscal policy – but never on foreign policy. It has left those to traditional global actors – France and the UK.

迄今，在歐元區危機的相關問題上，德國在歐盟內部發揮了主導作用——不僅表面上如此，在經濟和財政政策方面也的確是這樣。然而德國從未在外交政策上扮演領導者的角色。傳統的國際事務參與者——法國和英國纔是歐盟外交政策的主導者。

Christoph Bertram, a veteran analyst of Germany’s foreign and security policy, sees the euro crisis and “the extraordinary weakness of other European governments” (he is too polite to single out London and Paris) as having galvanised the debate about the need for a more assertive German role.

德國外交和安全政策方面的資深分析師，克里斯托夫•貝爾特拉姆(Christoph Bertram)認爲歐元危機以及“其他歐洲國家政府的異常軟弱”（他禮貌地沒有指出英國和法國）激起了有關德國是否需要扮演更自信角色的辯論。

“They were not rushing into it,” he says. “Reluctantly they found themselves in this position.” A country that always preferred to be a follower, not a leader, on foreign policy was suddenly forced “to be on the deck and occasionally taking the wheel”.

“他們並非草率行事，”他說，“他們並不情願地發現自己陷入了這樣的境地。”一個在外交政策上總是更願意做追隨者，而非領導者的國家，突然被迫“上了甲板，有時還得掌舵”。

Mr Bertram has been asked by Mr Steinmeier to help lead a review of German foreign policy. It follows a much-heralded speech by Joachim Gauck at the Munich security conference in January, when the German president called for the country to show greater responsibility, and a willingness to do more “to guarantee the security that others have provided it with for decades”.

受外長施泰因邁爾之請，貝爾特拉姆參與對德國外交政策發起重新審視。隨後，德國總統約阿希姆•高克(Joachim Gauck)今年1月在慕尼黑安全會議上發表了一次反響熱烈的演講。高克呼籲德國展示更大的責任感，以及採取更多行動“保障其他國家幾十年來提供的安全”的意願。

Both Mr Steinmeier, a Social Democrat, and Ursula von der Leyen, defence minister and leading member of Ms Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, lent their support to the president. The chancellor, however, kept quiet, as she often does. She knows a more assertive foreign policy is not popular among voters.

來自社會民主黨(Social Democrat)的施泰因邁爾，以及現任國防部長、默克爾所在的基民盟的主要成員烏爾蘇拉•馮德萊恩(Ursula von der Leyen)都表達了對總統的支持。然而默克爾一如既往地保持緘默。她明白更自信的外交政策並不受選民歡迎。

That remains true. A poll carried out by the Körber foundation in May showed that just 37 per cent of respondents think Germany should “engage more” in international crises, while 60 per cent wanted to keep a low profile.

這是事實。柯爾柏基金會(Körber foundation)5月進行的民意調查顯示，僅有37%的調查對象認爲德國應該“更積極地參與”國際危機，而60%的調查對象則希望德國保持低調。

There is certainly no enthusiasm in Germany for “putting boots on the ground”. On that score, Mr Putin is right to think Berlin is not prepared to intervene militarily in Ukraine. But he is wrong to think that means doing nothing.

毫無疑問，德國並不熱衷於出動軍事力量。在這一點上，普京認爲柏林並沒有準備對烏克蘭事務進行武力干預，是正確的。但他錯誤以爲這就意味着德國不會採取任何行動。

Mr Putin may have misread Ms Merkel because her instinct is to wait and see. She is a pragmatist who looks for solutions to problems, and eschews ideology. Although the expression embarrasses most German politicians, she knows there is such a thing as the “national interest”.

普京之所以誤讀了默克爾，也許是因爲她的本能是靜觀其變。她是一個務實主義者，尋求問題的解決方法，並回避意識形態問題。她知道有“國家利益”這麼一回事，儘管這個詞會讓絕大多數德國政治人士感到不安。

On Ukraine that means taking a stand against the unilateral redrawing of agreed international borders, even if it means paying an economic price. It is about security as well as prosperity. It involves European solidarity, defending the rule of law and protecting human rights. It is not just about protecting export markets.

在烏克蘭事務上，這意味着對單方面改變公認邊界的行爲採取反對的立場，即使這意味着付出經濟代價。這關乎安全也關乎繁榮。採取這樣的立場需要歐洲團結一心，以捍衛法治，保護人權。重要的絕不僅僅是保護出口市場。