泰國倒戈少將成紅衫軍中堅力量
【英文原文】
Thai Leader Offers Vote In Risky Move
Thailand's army leaders made an enemy when they assigned Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdipol to lead aerobics-dance classes in Bangkok's public markets a couple of years ago.
Today, Maj. Gen. Khattiya is a renegade operating among the Red Shirt protesters in Bangkok's streets, and his increasingly militant followers illustrate the risks the government faces if it fails to secure a political deal to end the eight-week crisis.
Protest leaders Tuesday appeared close to agreeing to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's latest offer to hold elections on Nov. 14 in exchange for calling off the debilitating protests, which have crippled Bangkok's main shopping district for weeks and caused hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Thaksin Shinawatra, the fugitive former prime minister ousted in a 2006 military coup who is a driving force behind Red Shirt protests, said in a phone call to supporters Tuesday that prospects for reconciliation were good.
Rally organizers, however, said they were waiting for proof of the government's sincerity, and questioned the proposed election date. 'We want to see the government commit to a dissolution,' said Nattawut Saikua, one of the main protest leaders. 'It's in the government's hands now.'
Thai stock-market prices soared on news that the Red Shirts were considering the election offer. The Stock Exchange of Thailand Index rose 4.4% to close at 796.86 points.
But if the offer is rejected amid disputes over the polling date, political analysts say tensions could deteriorate further -- and open the way for hard-liners to determine what happens next.
One such hard-liner is Maj. Gen. Khattiya, better known as 'Seh Daeng,' or, roughly, 'Commander Red.' His followers represent a volatile splinter group in the protesters' push to replace a bureaucratic establishment with a populist, rural-dominated government. Some independent analysts say Maj. Gen. Khattiya's growing influence over such militant members of the broader Red Shirt movement could lead to bloodshed.
The major general on Tuesday scoffed at the prime minister's latest offer. 'He's trying to trick the protest leaders into stepping down, but the protesters want to stay,' he said. 'It's just a plan to buy time and push up stock prices.'
The major general, suspended from duty in 2008 for visiting Mr. Thaksin overseas without permission, was once a rising star in Thailand's armed forces, trained in fighting antigovernment forces. He earned his reputation as a maverick fighting Communist insurgents in near the border with Laos in the 1970s and Muslim rebels in the south. He scorns what he calls his superiors' fondness for golf, which he considers soft, and promotes himself as a Thai-style Rambo in a series of books he has written about his exploits in the field.
【中文譯文】
數年前，泰國軍方領導人指派少將卡蒂亞(Khattiya Sawasdipol)到曼谷公共市場去給有氧操健身課程帶隊，結果給自己樹立了一個敵人。
今天，卡蒂亞已然倒戈，加入了曼谷街頭的紅衫軍當中，而他在軍方的支持者也越來越多。這讓人們看到，政府如果不能達成政治協議結束這場長達八個星期的危機，它會面臨怎樣的風險。
週二，示威領袖們似乎已經接近同意總理阿披實(Abhisit Vejjajiva)的最新提議，即在11月14日舉行大選，並以此作爲取消示威活動的交換條件。示威活動對曼谷的主要購物區造成了數週的干擾，並帶來數億美元的損失。流亡他國的前總理他信(Thaksin Shinawatra)週二致電支持者說，達成調解的希望是很大的。他信在2006年的一次軍事政變中下臺，是紅衫軍示威活動背後的一個推動力量。
但集會組織者說他們在等待政府展現誠意，並對阿披實建議的選舉日期提出了質疑。示威活動的主要領袖之一納塔兀(Nattawut Saikua)說，我們希望看到政府自我解散的決心，現在就看政府的了。
受紅衫軍考慮阿披實提議的消息提振，泰國股市飆升。泰國證券交易所指數(Stock Exchange of Thailand Index)收於796.86點，上漲4.4%。
但多位分析人士稱，如果阿披實的提議因選舉日期方面的爭議而遭到拒絕，雙方關係可能會進一步惡化，然後可能就是由強硬派來決定下一步將會發生什麼。
強硬派之一就是卡蒂亞，他更爲人知的名字是社登(Seh Daeng)，大意是“紅色司令官”。示威者推動建立一個民粹化的、以農村爲主的政府，以取代官僚政府，而卡蒂亞的追隨着屬於這一過程中一個不穩定的小派別。一些局外分析人士認爲，卡蒂亞對於紅衫軍運動中這些軍方成員的影響力日益漸長，可能會導致流血事件的發生。
對阿披實最近的提議，卡蒂亞嘲笑對待。他說，阿披實是在誘使示威領袖減弱示威活動，但示威者希望留下來；這不過是一個緩兵之際，一個提振股市的計劃。
卡蒂亞於2008年被停職，原因是未經允許到海外探訪了他信。他曾是泰國武裝力量中的一個新星，在打擊反政府武裝的過程中得到歷煉。上世紀70年代打擊老撾邊境的共產黨叛軍和南部穆斯林判亂分子的過程中，卡蒂亞因其特立獨行而爲人所知。他說他的上級愛好高爾夫，並嘲笑這種愛好爲軟弱的表現。在數本描繪自己戰功的著作中，他把自己宣傳爲一個泰國版的蘭博(Rambo)。
