時事新聞:美國經濟回升緩慢導致美元下跌
【英文原文】
Currency Trading: Dollar in a Funk as Traders Bet on Slow Rebound
The U.S. currency fell sharply against most major rivals Tuesday, as optimistic investors bet that the rest of the world will pull out of recession faster than will the U.S.
On the first full trading day after the summer holiday season wrapped up, the dollar hit its lowest point this year against the euro during London trading.
Late afternoon in New York, the euro was buying $1.4489, up from $1.4342 late Monday. The greenback is trading at about the same level as before the collapse of Lehman Brothers almost one year ago. The dollar also fell against the yen and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars.
'You are seeing a notable breakdown in the dollar,' says Paul Mackel, senior currency strategist at HSBC in London. 'The fact that the dollar is out of the well-established ranges with several currencies has gotten investors jumpy.'
Meanwhile, gold, which often moves in the opposite direction of the U.S. dollar, moved above the symbolic $1,000 per troy ounce, its highest since February, before slipping back. Investors often buy gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation. Front-month September gold late afternoon in New York was at $995.
Currency analysts say the dollar's slide has room to run now that it has broken free of recent trading ranges. Several are predicting the euro will test $1.50 by the end of the year. Mr. Mackel also sees continued strength, in particular, for the Australian dollar, which is backed by a healthy economy and exposure to a rebounding China. He says the Aussie currency could reach near parity with the U.S. dollar by the end of 2010. Late afternoon Tuesday it was trading at US$0.8620, up from US$0.8560.
Friday's U.S. jobs report was a significant factor in the dollar's fall. The U.S. unemployment rate hit 9.7% in August, and that means the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future.
Meantime, positive economic news from Australia, Korea, Taiwan, and Europe confirmed views among currency traders that those places will likely be forced to raise interest rates before the U.S. in order to prevent their economies from overheating. Higher interest rates mean better returns for those countries' currencies.
'The core problem for the dollar remains that risk appetite is good, U.S. interest rates are extremely low, and the Fed has done a good job telling us they will stay low a long time,' says Ray Farris, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Credit Suisse in London. 'The market is under a lot of pressure to seek yield on investments. There is no yield in the U.S.'
Indeed, Tuesday's dollar drop came on a day when the cost to borrow the U.S. currency over the longer-term hit a new low. Data from the British Bankers' Association showed the three-month dollar Libor fell to 0.30188% from Monday's 0.30875%. That is the lowest since that index was introduced in 1986.
In some ways, investors are using dollars to reprise a strategy that helped weaken the Japanese yen for much of the decade -- what is known as the carry trade. With interest rates in the U.S. as low as anywhere and expected to stay low, investors can borrow in dollars and buy higher-yielding currencies or emerging-market stocks. Stock markets in Asia and Europe were up broadly Tuesday.
Also gnawing at the dollar is continuing chatter about its role as the world's reserve currency. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development released a report Monday that said the dollar-centric global economy is 'increasingly challenged' and suggested the world move to a more internationally based currency system.
【中文譯文】
美元兌多數其他主要貨幣的匯率週二大幅下挫，因爲樂觀的投資者斷定，世界其他地區擺脫經濟衰退的速度會快於美國。
週二是夏季假日季節結束後的第一個全天交易日，在倫敦交易時段，美元兌歐元匯率跌至今年以來的最低點。
紐約匯市週二尾盤，歐元兌1.4489美元，高於週一尾盤的1.4342美元。美元兌歐元匯率大約爲近一年前雷曼兄弟公司(Lehman Brothers)垮臺時的水平。美元兌日圓匯率以及兌澳元和加元等與大宗商品掛鉤貨幣的匯率也出現下跌。
匯豐(HSBC)駐倫敦的高級貨幣策略師馬科爾(Paul Mackel)說，美元正在經歷顯著下跌，美元兌幾種貨幣跌破穩定波動區間令投資者心驚膽戰。
與此同時，經常與美元匯率反向而行的黃金價格則突破了具有象徵意義的每盎司1,000美元價位，創下今年2月以來的最高水平，之後有所回落。投資者經常通過購買黃金來對衝經濟形勢不明朗和通貨膨脹風險。紐約市場週二尾盤，近期交割的九月黃金期貨報每盎司995美元。
貨幣分析師們說，鑑於美元已經跌破了近期的交易區間，它仍然具有下行空間。幾位分析師預計，到今年年底時歐元兌美元匯率將上探1.50美元。馬科爾還認爲，澳元尤其會持續保持強勢，澳大利亞良好的經濟形勢以及中國經濟反彈對該國的帶動作用爲澳元提供了支持。他說，到2010年底時，澳元有可能接近與美元平盤的水平。週二尾盤，澳元兌0.8620美元，高於週一的0.8560美元。
美國上週五公佈的就業報告是導致美元下跌的一個重要因素。美國8月份的失業率升至9.7%，這意味着美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve)在可預見的未來有可能將利率維持在低水平。
與此同時，來自澳大利亞、韓國、臺灣和歐洲的正面經濟消息證實了貨幣交易員們的一種觀點，即這些地區爲了阻止經濟過熱，有可能被迫早於美國上調利率。利率上調意味着投資這些地區貨幣的回報率會提高。
瑞信(Credit Suisse)駐倫敦的外匯策略部門負責人法瑞斯(Ray Farris)說，美元面臨的核心問題依然是投資者風險偏好良好、美國極低的利率水平以及美聯儲清楚表明美國利率將長期保持在低水平。他說，市場面臨着要尋找投資收益的很大壓力，而美國沒有這種收益。
事實上，就在美元匯率週二下跌之際，美元的長期借貸成本也降至新低。英國銀行家協會(British Bankers' Association)的數據顯示，美元的三個月期倫敦銀行同業拆息從週一的0.30875%下降至0.30188%。這是該指標1986推出以來的最低水平。
某種程度上說，投資者正用美元來重演一套在本世紀以來大部分時間內推動日圓走低的策略，即融資套利交易。由於美國的利率已跌至世界最低水平，且預計仍將維持在低水平，投資者可以借入美元來購買高收益率貨幣或新興市場的股票。亞洲和歐洲的股市週二普遍上揚。
對美元世界儲備貨幣地位的質疑聲不斷也在削弱着美元匯率。聯合國貿易和發展大會(United Nations Conference on Trade and Development)週一發佈的一份報告說，以美元爲中心的全球經濟“正日益受到挑戰”，報告暗示，世界正向建立一個更具國際性的貨幣體系前進。
