企業家精神將成中國增長新動力
China’s recent stock market turbulence and currency devaluation has attracted enormous attention from around the world—with a disproportionate amount focused on whether we are seeing the end ofChina’s growth story.
中國近期的股市動盪及人民幣貶值引起了全世界的極大關注，而這些關注過多地聚焦在中國的增長故事是否即將結束。
True, many people lost a lot of money (though doubtless some also made a lot) and the reputation of the country’s economic managers has been badly damaged. The aftermath resulting from the meltdown will likely continue to be felt for at least several months, particularly by those private sector companies which have had to shelve plans to raise funds via initial public unlike the global financial crisis of 2008, which resulted in a worldwide slowdown,China’s economic fundamentals are not shaky: its GDP growth is slowing, but a hard landing looks unlikely.
的確，很多人都虧了不少錢（但可以肯定的是也有人賺了很多），而且中國經濟管理者的聲譽已嚴重受損。股市暴跌很可能會在至少數月內繼續產生影響，尤其是對那些不得不擱置IPO融資計劃的私營部門企業。但與導致全球經濟放緩的2008年全球金融危機不同，中國經濟的基本面仍然穩固：中國國內生產總值(GDP)增長正在放緩，但似乎不太可能出現硬着陸。
Certainly this is what the government appears to believe.
中國政府看來無疑相信這一點。
Over the past few days, Premier Li Keqiang, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and Minister of Finance Lou Jiwei have all acknowledged the global impact of China’s stock market crash and currency devaluation.
近日，中國總理李克強、央行行長周小川以及財長樓繼偉都承認，中國股市暴跌及人民幣貶值造成了全球影響。
But they also all stressed that China’s currency had now stabilised, suggesting we are highly unlikely to see any further major devaluation. And they also said they expected China’s growth to remain at around 7 per cent a year for the next half decade, and that during this period, the government would continue to implement structural reforms.
但他們同時也都強調，人民幣如今已經趨於穩定。這意味着人民幣進一步大幅貶值的可能性非常小。他們還表示，預計未來5年中國經濟年均增長將保持在7%左右，在此期間，中國政府將繼續實施結構性改革。
It is these reforms which really matter. If China can emerge by 2020 with its economy redirected towards consumption and services, and growth having averaged around 7 per cent along the way, its officials should have more than recovered their reputation for economic competency.
真正重要的正是這些改革舉措。如果中國到2020年能實現本國經濟向消費和服務驅動型轉變、同時在此期間保持7%左右的年均增長，那中國官員何止將挽回自己在經濟管理能力方面的聲譽。
What makes this 7 per cent figure credible is the fact that while some parts of the economy are clearly struggling — especially those sectors with huge over-capacity, such as steel, coal mining, aluminium and cement — a range of others remain hugely dynamic.
使7%增速顯得可信的事實是：雖然中國經濟中的部分行業明顯已經舉步維艱（尤其那些產能嚴重過剩的行業，如鋼鐵、煤炭、鋁和水泥），但其他衆多行業仍保持巨大的活力。
One example is smartphones, where an ever longer list of companies is continuously trying to muscle in on Xiaomi’s phenomenal success in displacing Apple and Samsung as China’s market leader.
以智能手機爲例——隨着小米(Xiaomi)取代蘋果(Apple)和三星(Samsung)成爲中國市場領導者，其非凡的成功激勵着越來越多的企業不斷試圖闖入這一行業拼殺。
But Xiaomi’s rise has now been almost matched by another company, Huawei Technologies, which in the second quarter of this year nearly caught Xiaomi in terms of market share, with its 15.7 per cent share of shipments just a whisker behind Xiaomi’s 15.9 percent, according to market research firm Canalsys.
但如今，小米的崛起幾乎已被另一家公司——華爲(Huawei Technologies)趕上。市場研究公司Canalsys的數據顯示，今年第二季度，華爲的市場份額已經接近趕上小米，其15.7%的發貨量佔比僅略低於小米的15.9%。
Huawei’s emergence as a consumer products company is a major achievement – not least because it is also continuing to more than hold its own as the world’s biggest maker of telecoms infrastructure equipment, including a 20 per cent share of the world’s mobile infrastructure market.
華爲作爲消費品公司的崛起是一項重大成就——何況該公司還繼續牢牢保持着自己全球最大電信基礎設備製造商的地位（包括佔有全球移動基礎設備市場20%的份額）。
China’s e-commerce industry also continues to advance at hyper-speed. Alibaba’s share price may have dropped to below its issue price, partly because its revenue growth dropped to 34 per cent year-on-year in the quarter to June, down from a 45 per cent last year.
中國電子商務行業也繼續保持着超高的發展速度。阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的股價或許已經跌破發行價，部分原因在於該公司在截至6月季度的同比收入增長從去年的45%下滑至34%。
But that is happening because it is seeing greater competition at home, notably from , China’s second biggest e-commerce company, which saw its revenues rose 61 per cent to $7.4bn during its second quarter.
但這主要是國內競爭加劇造成的，特別是來自京東()的壓力，後者是中國第二大電商企業，今年第二季度收入增長61%，達到74億美元。
Tencent is another company benefiting from Alibaba’s slide in market value. This week it displaced Alibaba as China’s biggest internet business by market capitalisation banking on its record quarterly profits stemming from the continued success of its online games – responsible for more than half its revenues – and the more than 1bn users of its two free messaging apps, smartphone-based WeChat and PC-based QQ.
騰訊(Tencent)是另外一家從阿里巴巴市值下滑中獲益的公司。在創紀錄的季度利潤的支撐下，本週騰訊取代阿里巴巴成爲中國市值最大的互聯網公司。騰訊在線遊戲的持續成功（對其營收的貢獻超過一半），以及兩款免費通訊應用——基於智能手機的微信(WeChat)和基於個人電腦的QQ——超過10億的用戶推動了其利潤增長。
In short, while the country’s economy may no longer be a rising tide floating all boats, it will continue to generate many opportunities — some of them could be of major significance.
簡言之，儘管中國經濟或許不再是足以浮起所有船隻的不斷上漲的潮水，但它將繼續創造很多機會——其中一些可能具有重要意義。
As China makes the shift from being manufacturing – and investment-driven to seeing services and private consumption take over – a key factor driving these opportunities will be the sharp rise in affluent households. According to a study by Cornell University, China’s middle class population will double in size from its current 300m people by 2025.
隨着中國從製造業和投資驅動型經濟向服務業和個人消費主導型經濟轉變，一個促成這些機會的關鍵因素將是富裕家庭的迅速增多。據康奈爾大學(Cornell University)一項研究顯示，到2025年，中國中產階級人口數量將從目前的3億增加一倍。
This continued rise in private demand will encourage companies to chase growth – providing they are producing the goods and services these people want.
私人需求的持續上升，將鼓勵企業去追逐業務增長——前提是它們提供的商品和服務是人們想要的。
For this to be extended to the rest of the economy, the government needs to accelerate the implementation of its already announced financial and industrial reforms. Doing so will lead to further deregulation, further encouragement of competition, and further greater demand for value-adding innovation and entrepreneurship.
爲了讓這種情況擴展至經濟中的其他部分，中國政府需要加快實施其已宣佈的金融和工業改革。這將意味着進一步放松管制，進一步鼓勵競爭，以及促進對增值性創新和創業的需求。
On top of the internet and consumer electronics, other sectors where private firms look likely to drive major advances include medical equipment and other healthcare related businesses, energy and transport, including electric vehicles.
除互聯網和消費類電子產品外，民營企業可能取得巨大進步的行業包括醫療設備和其他與醫療保健相關的領域、能源以及交通（包括電動汽車）。
As the stock market stabilizes, the IPO plans and other fund raising plans would most likely return. Capital markets will continue to find good companies to invest in and vice versa, good companies will tap into the capital market for new funding.
隨着股市逐漸企穩，IPO及其他融資計劃將有望重啓。資本市場將繼續尋找優質公司進行投資，反過來優質公司也將利用資本市場進行新融資。
So while China growth is slowing, the rise of Chinese business is far from ending. Rather, if there is a moral that should be drawn from the market turbulence of recent weeks it is that rather than looking only to the Chinese government to drive growth, the world should also be looking more towards the country’s private sector.
因此，儘管中國經濟增長正在放緩，但是中國企業的崛起遠遠沒有畫上句號。如果說從最近幾周的市場動盪中能得出什麼教訓的話，那就是，世界應該更多把目光放在中國私營部門身上，而不是一味指望中國政府來推動增長。
China’s growth will inevitably continue to experience some ups and downs, and some cycles will be more pronounced than others. The country has produced a body of entrepreneurs who are willing to take risks, often enormous. They and their businesses are hungry and fast moving. A slowdown will test their resilience – and could well send many to the wall. But others will emerge stronger and they will ultimately be the force that carries the country forward.
中國的經濟增長將不可避免地繼續經歷起起伏伏，一些週期性現象可能會比其他國家更加突出。中國已經培養了一批甘於冒險（常常是巨大風險）的企業家。他們及他們的企業滿懷渴望、行動迅速。經濟放緩將考驗他們的適應能力——可能會使很多企業陷入絕境。但是，其他企業將變得更加強大，並將最終成爲推動中國前進的力量。
Edward Tse is CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, a global strategy consulting firm with roots in China, and is author of the recently released book China’s Disruptors: How Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, and Other Companies are Changing the Rules of Business
本文作者爲植根於中國的全球戰略諮詢公司高風諮詢公司(Gao Feng Advisory Company)的首席執行官、近期出版的新書《中國的商業顛覆者：阿里巴巴、小米、騰訊等公司正在如何改變商業規則》(China’s Disruptors: How Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, and Other Companies are Changing the Rules of Business)的作者
