中國依賴煤炭發展的真實代價 每年67萬人死於污染

The study, by Tsinghua University associate professor TengFei, lays bare the extent of the country’s pollution problem that is the darkest side effect of the country’s rapid growth over the last 20 years: over 70% of China’s 1.4 billion population are exposed to pollution levels above national regulatory norms, and over 10% are exposed to concentrations of harmful particles 10 times the level considered safe by the U.N.’s World Health Organization.

由清華大學副教授滕飛主持的一項調查顯示，近20年來中國經濟飛速發展所引發的最嚴重的副作用是污染問題：中國14億人口中超過70%生活在污染級別高於國家規定標準的環境中；其中，超過10%的人生活在有害顆粒濃度10倍於世界衛生組織安全標準的環境中。

The study underlines how immediate and pressing pollution and public health issues are driving the discussion in China over industrial emissions, in contrast to considerations of long-term climate change prevalent in the West. It’s also a powerful reminder of why Beijing is trying to re-orient its economy away from energy-intensive, export-oriented manufacturing.

此項研究報告強調，當前嚴峻的污染和健康問題刻不容緩，引起了國內對工業排放問題的廣泛討論。相比之下，西方國家已經開始關注長期氣候變化的影響。這項調查無疑向政府敲響了一記警鐘：中國必須改變經濟發展的方向，不再倚重能源密集型和出口導向的製造業。

Coal, by far the “dirtiest” of the major fossil fuels in terms of emissions, accounts for over two-thirds of China’s primary energy supply. Although Beijing has taken tentative steps to reduce its importance, such as banning the development of new coal mines in the country’s more developed eastern provinces, coal will still be over 50% of total energy supply even in 2040, according to official U.S. estimates.

作爲排放污染最嚴重的化石燃料，煤炭佔中國主要能源供應量的三分之二以上。雖然中國政府已經開始嘗試採取一些措施，以減少對煤炭的依賴，例如禁止在東部較爲發達的地區開採新礦，但是根據美國官方的預計，到2040年煤炭仍將佔中國能源供應總量的50%以上。

Teng’s study will strengthen the arguments of those pressing the government to do more, faster. Teng suggested that taxes on coal need to be raised between five and ten times to reflect the real cost of burning it, according to the South China Morning Post.

這份調查爲人們提供了更多依據來呼籲政府採取更多措施，提高整治速度。據《南華早報》（South China Morning Post）報道，滕飛建議將現有的燃煤排污費提高5到10倍，以體現煤炭的真實成本。

The study found that tiny particulate pollutants, especially those smaller than 2.5 micrograms (known as PM2.5), were linked to 670,000 premature deaths from four diseases – strokes, lung cancer, coronary heart disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease – in China in 2012.

該調查發現，2012年，與污染中懸浮微粒，特別是2.5微克以下的懸浮粒子（俗稱PM2.5）有關的四大病症——中風、肺癌、冠心病和慢性阻塞性肺病導致的過早死亡約爲67萬例。

But the actual cost is probably far higher, the SCMP quoted Li Guoxing of Beijing University’s School of Public Health as saying.

《南華早報》援引北京大學公共衛生學院的李國興（Li Guoxing——音譯）的觀點稱，實際數字可能還要高得多。

“The health cost [of the study] is only based on the premature death figures due to the limitations of our research data,” said Li. “It could be way higher if we also include medical costs for other chronic illnesses.”

“因爲我們的研究數據有一定侷限性，調查報告中的健康成本是根據過早死亡人數來測算的。”李國興指出，“如果將慢性病的醫療成本也算進去，這個數字還要高得多。”

The study found that in 2012, more than 70% of the population was exposed to annual PM2.5 pollution levels higher than 35 micrograms per cubic meter, the country’s benchmark for healthy air quality. And 157 million people lived in areas where the annual PM2.5 concentration was higher than 100mcg/cubic meter – 10 times the WHO’s recommendation.

調查發現，2012年有超過70%的中國人生活在PM2.5年均值高於國家健康空氣質量基準（每立方米35微克）的環境中；其中1.57億人生活在PM2.5年均值超過每立方米100微克的環境中，這一數字是世衛組織發佈的空氣質量建議標準的10倍。

According to the China National Coal Association, the country’s coal consumption totaled 3.03 billion metric tons in the first nine months of this year, down 1.2% from a year earlier. Domestic production fell to 2.85 billion tons, according to the Xinhua News Agency.

據中國煤炭工業協會（China National Coal Association）統計，今年前九個月國內煤炭消耗總量爲30.3億公噸，同比下降1.2%。而據新華社報道，國內煤炭產量下降至28.5億噸。