出境遊提振中國大型航空公司收益
Growth in overseas leisure travel has helped boost core earnings at China's biggest airlines in the first quarter, and signaled that the nation's recent slowdown hasn't weighed on consumer sentiment as much as some may have feared.
境外休閒旅遊的增長幫助提振了中國最大航空公司第一季度的核心收益，同時也表明，近期中國經濟增長放緩對消費者信心的衝擊並不像一些人所擔心的那麼嚴重。Chinese airlines carried 13% more passengers in the first three months of 2014 from a year earlier, though they saw demand being particularly strong to points outside mainland China. At flag carrier Air China Ltd., international passenger revenue rose 19% during the period, slightly below the 22% jump at rival China Southern Airlines Co.
中國航空業第一季度客運量同比增長13%，不過航空公司發現乘客們飛往中國大陸以外目的地的需求尤爲強勁。中國國際航空股份有限公司(Air China Ltd., 簡稱：中國國航)第一季度國際客運收入增長19%，略低於競爭對手中國南方航空股份有限公司(China Southern Airlines Co., 簡稱:南方航空) 22%的增幅。An increasingly congested home market has prompted the nation's state carriers to expand their overseas reach, launching new long-haul routes from smaller cities such as Changsha and Chengdu to destinations in Europe and North America.
日益擁擠的國內市場促使中國國有航空公司向海外擴張，紛紛推出新的遠程航線：例如從長沙、成都等中等城市飛往歐洲和北美目的地的航線。
But the move also mirrors the consistent growth in the number of Chinese leisure travelers seeking to go abroad, despite China's economic expansion slowing to 7.4% in the first quarter, its lowest level in 18 months as the world's second-largest economy continued to downshift.
此舉也反映出，儘管中國經濟繼續減速，但尋求境外休閒旅遊的中國消費者數量的持續增長。中國第一季度經濟增速放緩至7.4%，爲18個月來最低水平。'Slower economic growth won't have immediate impact on leisure air traffic unless there are one-off factors such as a major economic crisis or natural disasters that significantly disrupt air travel sentiment,' said Kelvin Lau, a transport analyst at Daiwa Securities, noting he expects demand for leisure travel to remain resilient.
大和證券(Daiwa Securities)運輸業分析師劉健恆(Kelvin Lau)稱，經濟增速放緩不會立即衝擊休閒旅遊航空客運量，除非出現重大經濟危機、自然災害等嚴重干擾消費者對航空旅行熱情的一次性負面因素。他預計休閒旅遊需求將保持堅挺。During the first quarter, the number of Chinese air passengers traveling abroad rose 17% from a year earlier, according to the nation's aviation regulator, reaching 7.1 million people and accounted for nearly 8% of all airline passengers.
據中國民航監管部門的數據，第一季度中國出境旅遊航空客運量同比增長17%，達到710萬人次，佔到當季總客運量的近8%。Nonetheless, net earnings figures released this week showed that China's 'Big Three' state carriers reported significantly weaker first-quarter results because of a weaker national currency, which fell 2.7% during the period against the U.S. dollar.
不過，本週公佈的 利潤數據顯示出中國三大國有航空公司第一季度業績十分疲軟，主要受人民幣匯率走軟影響，這期間人民幣兌美元下跌了2.7%。The Big Three--Air China, China Southern, and China Eastern Airlines Corp.--have as much as 80% of their net debt denominated in U.S. dollars to finance aircraft leases and purchases, and any fluctuations in the yuan would have a major impact on their bottom lines. The weaker yuan has also hurt corporate profits among other Chinese industries, such as oil refiners, because crude oil is denominated in U.S. dollars.
三大國有航空公司分別是中國國際航空股份有限公司(Air China Ltd. ,, 簡稱:中國國航)、中國南方航空股份有限公司(China Southern Airlines Co. ,, 簡稱:南方航空)和中國東方航空股份有限公司(China Eastern Airlines Co. ,, 簡稱:東方航空)。三家公司高達80%的 債務是美元債務，主要是爲租賃和購買飛機提供資金，人民幣匯率的任何波動都會對它們的利潤構成重大影響。人民幣走軟也衝擊了中國其他行業公司的利潤，如煉油企業，因原油以美元計價。Air China on Tuesday said its first-quarter net profit plummeted 63% to 92.7 million yuan ($15 million), compared with 249 million yuan in the year-earlier period. Meanwhile, China Southern and China Eastern posted a combined net loss of 511 million yuan during the period.
中國國航週二表示，該公司第一季度 利潤由上年同期的人民幣2.49億元大幅下滑63%，至人民幣9,270萬元（合1,500萬美元）。與此同時，南方航空和東方航空在第一季度 虧損總額達到人民幣5.11億元。Yet these foreign-exchange losses are mostly noncash, as companies are required under accounting rules to value their substantial foreign-currency debts at the end of every quarter.
不過匯兌損失大多是非現金性損失，這些公司之所以公佈這些損失，是因爲根據會計準則要求，航空公司須在每個季度末對大規模外幣債務進行重新估值。Consequently, they don't pose significant medium-term impact if the yuan's declines stabilizes near current levels, say analysts.
分析師們說，因此，如果人民幣的下滑勢頭在目前水平企穩，那麼匯兌損失對航空公司利潤的中期影響不大。The weak net results therefore mask the robust earnings pickup in the nation's airline industry for the quarter. All the Big Three carriers would have been profitable on an operating level if the currency impact was excluded.
疲軟的 利潤數據掩蓋了中國航空業第一季度盈利強勁增長的事實。如果剔除匯率影響，三大國有航空公司在營運層面均盈利。At China Southern, for example, operating profit saw a near fivefold increase to 1.07 billion yuan, from 188 million yuan in the same period last year, according to Barclays Capital estimates. With the currency impact, the airline swung to a net loss. Similarly, at Air China, first-quarter operating profit increased by 515 million yuan excluding the foreign exchange items.
以南方航空爲例，據Barclays Capital估計，該公司第一季度的營業利潤由上年同期的人民幣1.88億元增加了近五倍，至人民幣10.7億元。但將匯兌損失考慮在內，南方航空則轉爲 虧損。同樣，剔除匯率因素，中國國航第一季度營業利潤增長了人民幣5.15億元。The overseas expansion drive by the Chinese airlines is helping improve utilization of the many widebody aircraft the carriers have ordered over recent years. Most aircraft orders by the state airlines are done through a centralized procurement agency by the government, and in the past have led to mismatches between capacity and demand.
中國航空公司的海外航線的擴張幫助提高了這些公司近年來訂購的很多寬體飛機的利用率。國有航空公司的大部分飛機訂單是通過政府的一箇中央採購部門完成的，過去曾導致運力和需求錯配。However, analysts say they expect some of the new international routes to remain unprofitable in the near term or manage to break even at best.
不過，分析師們表示，他們預計近期一些新開國際航線仍然無法盈利，最樂觀的情況也就是勉強實現盈虧平衡。The Chinese airlines are 'going into this faster growing segment to broaden their earnings stream, but in the medium term these new businesses won't necessarily be very profitable to them because of the startup costs attached with the network expansion,' said Andrew Orchard, an aviation analyst at CIMB Securities
聯昌國際證券(CIMB Securities)航空分析師奧查德(Andrew Orchard)表示，中國航空公司將進入這一增長迅速的領域以拓寬收益渠道，但中期內這些新業務不一定會帶來豐厚利潤，因爲航線網絡的擴張需要啓動成本。The outlook for the Big Three carriers will also be overshadowed by the government's recent efforts to liberalize the nation's skies. The government earlier this year unveiled long-awaited guidelines to jump-start the nation's fledgling budget-airline market, including pledges of financial support, plans to simplify approvals for new low-cost airlines, as well as measures to help existing budget carriers expand their fleets more quickly.
中國政府最近推動民航業開放的努力也給三大航空公司的前景蒙上陰影。今年早些時候，政府公佈了促進國內剛起步的廉價航空市場的政策，包括承諾提供資金支持，計劃簡化新成立低成本航空公司的審批程序，以及幫助現有廉價航空公司加快擴張機隊的舉措。Mr. Orchard said he estimates nonstate airlines, including budget carriers, account for around a quarter of seat capacity on routes that they compete head-to-head with state carriers. He expects these private airlines to play an even bigger role in the domestic travel market going forward.
奧查德表示，他預計，在包括廉價航空公司在內的非國有航空公司與國有航空公司正面競爭的航線上，非國有航空公司的座位數量佔四分之一左右。他預計，未來這些私營航空公司將在國內旅行市場扮演更加重要的角色。'The history of low-cost carriers is that they've been price eroding so it's logical to assume that there'll be some ticket price impact,' he said.
他表示，低成本航空的公司發展歷史顯示，此類公司的起到了拉低機票價格的作用，所以有理由認爲機票價格將受到影響。
