野村研究 中國房地產泡沫已正式破裂

China's great real-estate bust has begun, says Nomura. A combination of a huge oversupply of housing and a shortage of developer financing is producing a housing market downturn that could drive China's GDP to less than 6% this year.

野村(Nomura)稱，中國房地產調整已經開始。大規模的住房供應過剩，再加上開發商資金短缺，造成了中國住房市場的滑坡，或拖累今年中國國內生產總值(GDP)增速放緩至6%以下。

'To us, it is no longer a question of 'if' but rather 'how severe' the property market correction will be,' three Nomura analysts wrote in a report released Monday. And there isn't much the government can do to head off problems.

野村分析師在週一公佈的報告中稱，對於野村來說，問題已經不是房地產市場是否會出現調整，而是這個調整會有多嚴重；而且，政府在應對相關問題上沒有太多的迴旋餘地。

'There is no policy that is universally right,' says Nomura analyst Zhiwei Zhang.

野村分析師張智威表示，沒有什麼政策是適用於一切問題的。

For some time, Nomura has been among the most bearish of the big investment houses when it comes to China. And it has made some gutsy calls, although they haven't always turned out to be right. In early April, for instance, Nomura forecast that China's current account--the widest measure of trade--would be in the red in the first quarter of 2014. When the numbers came in recently, China still had a current account surplus, though at $7 billion, it was the smallest quarterly surplus in three years.

一段時間以內，野村都是最爲看空中國的投資銀行之一。野村曾經做過一些大膽預測，不過這些預測並不總是正確的。舉例來說，野村曾在4月初時預計，2014年第一季度中國經常項目將出現赤字。這一數據近期得到公佈，數據顯示中國仍然處於經常項目盈餘狀態，不過只有70億美元，爲三年來最小的季度盈餘規模。

So it remains to be seen whether Nomura this time will be Paul Revere warning of trouble ahead or Chicken Little, warning of trouble that never seems to occur.

所以野村這次能否預測成功還有待時間考驗。

Nomura bases a lot of its argument on the observation that that property investment turned negative in four of China's 26 provinces in the first quarter of 2014, and in two of them, Heilongjiang and Jilin, the fall was greater than 25%. To Nomura, that's a warning sign of similar problems to come in other Chinese provinces.

野村的觀點很大程度上基於觀察。野村觀察到，在2014年第一季度，中國26個省份中有四個省份的房地產投資是負值，其中即黑龍江和吉林的降幅超過了25%。對於野村來說，這是一個令人警惕的信號，類似的問題可能出現在中國其他省份。

Falling investment leads to falling levels of construction and sales. And given the property market's huge role in the Chinese economy, declining growth in the property sector means declining growth in GDP.

投資下降導致房地產開工和銷售水平滑坡。考慮到房地產市場對中國經濟的巨大影響，房地產行業增速放慢就意味着GDP增速放緩。

In one regard, Nomura may be conservative. It estimates that real estate and related industries, such as steel and cement, account for 16% of China's GDP. Other economists put the figure at around 25%.

從一方面來看，野村可能是保守的。該行估計，房地產及鋼材和水泥等相關產業佔中國GDP的比重爲16%。其他經濟學家給出的比重則爲25%左右。

Shortly after Nomura released its report, UBS came in with its own real-estate assessment, which was also a downer, but less so. The 'government still has the means and willingness to mitigate a property downturn,' UBS said. Those policies include increasing infrastructure investment and relaxing property policies. Even so, UBS downgraded its 2014 forecast to 7.3% from 7.5% and its 2015 forecast to 6.8% from 7% to reflect its worries about the property sector.

野村公佈報告後不久，瑞銀(UBS)也公佈了自己的房地產評估報告。這份報告也看空樓市，但看空程度不及野村。瑞銀說，政府仍有意願和辦法來減輕房地產滑坡的影響。這些政策包括擴大基建投資和放寬房地產政策。儘管如此，瑞銀仍將2014年GDP增速預期從7.5%下調至7.3%，將2015年GDP增速預期從7%下調至6.8%，以便體現該行對中國房地產行業的擔憂。

Certainly, the news in the real-estate sector hasn't been good this year--although a number of analysts still expect China to make the government's GDP target of 7.5% growth.

儘管一些分析師仍預計今年中國將完成政府所設GDP增長7.5%的目標，但毫無疑問的是，今年房地產行業的消息一直不太好。

Private data provider China Real Estate Index System said property sales by volume in the 44 cities they track fell 9% in April from the prior month and 19% compared with a year earlier. Average home prices, meanwhile, rose 0.1% in April from March and 9.1% from a year earlier. The sequential gains were the lowest since mid-2012, when the housing market turned around after the last downturn. This price index started only in 2010.

私營數據提供商中國房地產指數系統(China Real Estate Index System)公佈，4月份該系統監測的44個主要城市房產累計成交面積環比下降9%，同比下降19%。該系統還公佈，4月份全國100個城市（新建）住宅平均價格環比上漲0.1%，同比上漲9.1%，環比漲幅創2012年年中房價止跌以來的最低水平。中國房地產指數系統僅從2010年纔開始發佈“百城價格指數”。

The government has lousy policy choices, Nomura argues. Continue with minimal stimulus and GDP growth could fall below 6% this year. On the plus side, developers wouldn't add much to China's long-term housing and debt problems.

野村認爲，政府的政策選擇極爲有限。如果繼續執行微刺激措施，那麼今年的GDP增速可能會降至6%以下。有利的一面是，開發商不會加劇中國長期存在的住房和債務問題。

Alternatively, ramp up monetary and fiscal policy by, say, cutting by 0.5% the reserves that banks hold in the central bank and by turbo-charging government spending, and the government could achieve 7.4% growth this year, Nomura estimates.

另外一種選擇是，加大貨幣和財政政策的力度，比如，將銀行存款準備金率下調0.5個百分點，同時大規模增加政府支出。野村預測，這樣做政府可能會將今年的經濟增長率提高至7.4%。

But taking that route would only worsen China's housing glut and delay the downturn by a year, the investment firm argues. In 2015, Nomura estimates, GDP would slow to 6.8%. While delaying problems for a year could give leaders more time to put in place reforms that could help China over the long term, Nomura also says China would have a one-in-three chance of GDP growth falling even faster by the end of 2015 and starting a 'hard landing,' which it defines as four consecutive quarters of GDP growth below 5%.

但野村認爲，採取這樣的方式只會令中國住房供應過剩的狀況惡化，把經濟下滑的時間推遲一年而已。野村預計，到2015年中國的GDP增速將降至6.8%。雖然把問題推後一年可以讓領導人有更多時間落實那些能夠在長期內對中國經濟有利的改革措施，不過野村也認爲，到2015年年底，中國的GDP增幅加速下降並開始出現“硬着陸”的可能性爲三分之一；根據野村的定義，經濟“硬着陸”指的是GDP增幅連續四個季度低於5%。

Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

真是左右爲難。

It's possible China could get some unexpected good news that lifts the economy. The downturn in the housing market could turn out to be more gradual than Nomura expects or the global economy could turn around and give a big boost to exports. But Mr. Zhang isn't putting his bet on either. 'There isn't a panacea,' he says.

也可能會出現一些意想不到的好消息提振中國經濟。比如住房市場的下滑步伐或許比野村預計的要更爲平緩，或者是全球經濟好轉並極大地促進中國出口。不過張智威並不押注這兩種可能性。他說，世上沒有靈丹妙藥。