關注社會:亞洲股市顯現抄底機會
After a selloff since May that has left stocks in Asia just above where they started the year, some investors are looking to buy as China seeks to prop up its economy, the second-largest in the world.
在5月份以來的下跌使亞洲股市僅略高於年初水平之後，在世界第二大經濟體中國謀求提振國內經濟之際，一些投資者開始考慮買進。Optimism stems from the combination of a fresh stimulus package, a cut in interest rates and moves to boost bank lending that have smoothed a slowdown in the country. That has blunted fears of a hard landing, a scenario that would send emerging-market investors rushing to havens, given the region's ever-closer trading and financial ties.
投資者的樂觀源自新推刺激方案、利率下調，以及增加銀行放貸（起到減輕中國經濟增長放緩的作用）的措施。這些措施緩和了硬着陸擔憂。考慮到亞洲地區內部日益緊密的貿易與金融聯繫，如果中國經濟發生硬着陸，新興市場投資者就會爭先恐後地將資金轉移到避險資產。Worries over Europe's debt crisis have been responsible for the broad slump in the second quarter, but that has left stocks looking cheap, given continued faith in the region's growth, although few are willing to bet there couldn't be more losses before a recovery.
對歐洲債務危機的擔憂導致第二季度股市普跌，但考慮到投資者對亞洲地區增長潛力仍有信心，這也使股票顯得便宜。不過很少有人願意打賭反彈之前不可能進一步下跌。
"Equity markets will benefit from the [China] policy easing. But there is a lag effect and it has yet to come through," said Soon Gek Chew, head of strategy and economic research for the Asian-Pacific region at Credit Suisse Private Bank.
瑞士信貸私人銀行(Credit Suisse Private Bank)亞太區策略與經濟研究負責人Soon Gek Chew說，股市將受益於中國的政策放鬆，但其中存在滯後效應，影響還沒有顯現。The MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index, a broad measure of stocks across the region, fell 7.9% in the second quarter but is up 4.5% year to date.
反映亞洲地區股市狀況的摩根士丹利資本國際亞洲（除日本）指數(MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index)在第二季度下跌7.9%，但年初以來上漲了4.5%。The best performing market in Asia in the second quarter, excluding China, was the Philippines, where the PSE Composite Index rose 2.7%. The index is up 20% year to date. The Southeast Asian country remained resilient against global economic developments, as its strong economic growth in the first quarter demonstrated.
在中國以外，第二季度亞洲地區表現最好的市場是菲律賓，菲律賓證券交易所綜合指數(PSE Composite Index)在這期間上漲2.7%。該指數年初以來上漲了20%。在千變萬化的國際經濟形勢面前，這個東南亞國家仍有抗壓能力，一季度強勁的經濟增長就是明證。Research by Credit Suisse says one measure of the MSCI index's valuation, that compares companies current values with expected future earnings, is equivalent to the crisis-low levels of October 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
瑞士信貸的研究表明，一個反映摩根士丹利資本國際亞洲（除日本）指數估值狀況的指標已經相當於雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破產後、2008年10月份危機期間的最低水平。這個指標比較了成份股公司當前市值與未來預期收益。"If you look at Asian valuations on both a market and historical basis, Asian markets are quite compelling," said Medha Samant, investment director at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, which manages $288 billion world-wide. The MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index is priced at an estimated 2012 trailing price-to-book ratio of 1.6, a 20% discount to its five-year average of 2.0, according to Credit Suisse.
富達國際投資(Fidelity Worldwide Investment)的投資總監薩曼特(Medha Samant)說，無論以目前的市場行情還是過往經驗來看亞洲股票的估值，亞洲市場都十分具有吸引力。富達國際投資在全世界管理着2,880億美元的資產。瑞士信貸表示，摩根士丹利資本國際亞洲（除日本）指數2012年往績市淨率爲1.6倍，較五年市淨率均值低20%。Michael Kurtz, Asia strategist and head of global equity strategy at Nomura in Hong Kong, points out that the equity risk premium, which measures the return offered by stocks compared with less-risky assets such as Treasurys, is far higher than its long-term average.
野村(Nomura)駐香港亞洲策略師、全球股票策略主管庫爾茨(Michael Kurtz)指出，股權風險溢價目前遠高於長期均值。股權風險溢價是股票收益率與國債等風險較低的資產收益率的差額。"Investors are willing to pay a very high price for safety," Mr. Kurtz said.
庫爾茨說，投資者現在願意爲安全性出大價錢。There still are plenty of risks hanging over markets, with many of them outside of Asia. Catalysts that could cause another round of selling include a Greece exit from the euro zone or a default in another European nation. Still, even that could present opportunities.
市場上目前仍有很多風險，但其中很多都在亞洲以外。可能引發另一場拋售潮的催化因素包括希臘從歐元區退出或另一個歐洲國家違約等。不過，即便是這些情況下也可能蘊含機遇。"In a selloff, even some of the quality names can come down, so we are using the dips to buy into companies that still have good earnings potential," Ms. Samant said.
薩曼特說，拋售時，即便是一些大牌公司的股票也可能受挫，所以我們將利用股市下跌來買入那些仍有良好盈利潛力的股票。The question is whether the potential upside outweighs the risks of further losses. Research by Citigroup Inc. suggests that the odds are in favor of those willing to build exposure now.
現在的問題是，股票的上行潛力是否超過進一步下挫的風險。花旗集團(Citigroup Inc.)的研究報告顯示，那些願意現在買進的人勝算的把握更大。Citigroup argued in its outlook for the second half of the year released on June 8 that the probability of making money from these levels over the last 37 years has been 70%, with an average return of 22% over the following 12 months. For those who were unlucky enough to be in the losing 30%, average losses were just 8.5%.
花旗在6月8日發佈的今年下半年展望報告中認爲，在過去37年裏，從類似於目前行情的市場中賺錢的可能性是70%，未來12個月的平均回報率是22%。而那些不幸賠錢的佔30%的投資者，平均損失也僅爲8.5%。In the foreign-exchange market, one big loser in Asia has been the Indian rupee, which has been hitting historic lows against the U.S. dollar as the government has been unable to alleviate the double hit of a slowdown in exports and rising imports. The dollar rose 9.1% against the rupee in the second quarter and is up 4.7% this year.
亞洲外匯市場上的一大輸家是印度盧比。盧比兌美元不斷創歷史新低，原因在於印度政府一直無力緩解出口減速和進口增加的雙重打擊。美元對盧比今年第二季度上漲9.1%，今年全年上漲4.7%。
