亞洲美元短缺提高人民幣地位
A few months ago, Fortescue Metalsplaced a $100m order in China for railway cars to transport iron ore from its Australian mines – except that the order was in renminbi, at the request of the Chinese exporter. Fortescue then turned to Australian bank ANZ to provide a hedge to protect against adverse currency moves between the Chinese currency and the Australian dollar. Because the Aussie dollar moves less against the renminbi than it does against the US dollar, the hedge was cheaper than if the sale was in greenbacks.
幾個月前，澳大利亞礦商Fortescue Metals在中國下了一筆1億美元的訂單採購載貨列車，其澳大利亞礦場生產的鐵礦石要靠這些列車運出。這筆訂單的不尋常之處在於，應中國出口商的要求，這筆貿易要以人民幣計價。隨後，Fortescue要求澳大利亞澳新銀行(ANZ)提供一個對衝，防範澳元兌人民幣匯率出現不利於己的變動。由於澳元兌人民幣的匯率波動幅度小於澳元兌美元，因此，這一對衝的成本要低於以美元計價的貿易的對衝成本。Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, foreign banks such as ANZare receiving calls from the big mainland banks asking them to refinance their Chinese renminbi trade books.
與此同時，在香港，澳新銀行等外國銀行接到中國內地大型銀行的電話，後者要求它們爲各自的人民幣貿易賬戶再融資。That is a challenge for most foreign banks, given that they generally lack the renminbi funding that would enable them to easily enter into such transactions.
這對多數外國銀行構成了挑戰，因爲它們普遍缺少人民幣資金、難以從事此類交易。
But that was precisely the point of such requests. Beijing wants to see the renminbi play a bigger role in trade, and these requests are meant to get the flow going.
但這恰恰是此類要求的目的所在。中國政府希望人民幣能在貿易中發揮更大的作用，這些要求正是爲了讓人民幣流動起來。By agreeing to such transactions, foreign banks will have to increase their funding capabilities in renminbi, which will lead them in turn to seek renminbi deposits. And once they have those deposits, it will become easier for the banks to lend renminbi to their corporate clients in Asia and around the world, and help their customers manage their currency risk.
一旦外國銀行同意從事此類交易，它們就必須提高自己的人民幣融資能力，這反過來又會促使它們吸收人民幣存款。而一旦有了人民幣存款，這些銀行就更容易向自己在亞洲和世界各地的企業客戶發放人民幣貸款、以及幫助客戶控制匯率風險。Beijing's desire to promote the renminbi comes at a fortuitous time. There is a dollar shortage in Asia, which threatens to restrict credit growth in the region. The shortage is partly related to Basel capital requirements. But there are also big new trends that are influencing both the supply of dollars and the cost of accessing those dollars.
中國政府提升人民幣地位的計劃趕上了一個有利時機。目前亞洲剛好出現美元短缺，可能會抑制地區的信貸增長。美元短缺部分歸因於《巴塞爾協議》的資本金要求。但除此之外，還有一些重要的新趨勢正在影響美元的供給和獲取成本。In the past, US dollar holders would recirculate dollars by putting them into the interbank market. But today the biggest holders of greenbacks are Asian central banks. And they are putting their dollars into US Treasuries rather than into the market.
過去，美元持有者把美元投入銀行間市場，以此來使美元重新流動起來。但現在，美元的最大持有者是亞洲的各個央行。這些央行並沒有把美元投入市場，而是投到美國國債上。Moreover, there are new participants in the markets in Asia whose large appetite for US dollars is also contributing to the shortage. When the mainland tightened credit last year, Chinese banks began lending dollars to cash-strapped enterprises offshore in Hong Kong and elsewhere.
此外，亞洲市場還出現了新的參與者，它們吸納美元的巨大胃口也促成了美元的短缺。去年中國內地收緊信貸時，中國的銀行開始向香港和其他地區資金緊張的海外企業發放美元貸款。In addition, as Singaporean and Malaysian banks outgrow their home markets, they too are looking to lend dollars. At the same time, both corporate treasurers and local investors in Asia continue to ply the carry trade, borrowing in low yielding currencies such as the dollar to invest in higher-yielding local currencies.
而且，隨着新加坡和馬來西亞銀行的規模不斷擴大、不再滿足於本土市場，它們也在想方設法發放美元貸款。與此同時，亞洲的投資者和企業財務官們仍在不停地從事套息交易，即借入美元等低收益貨幣，然後投資於本地的高收益貨幣。Given the dollar shortage, anything that reduces demand for dollars has to be a good thing. The euro today looks like an alternative that isn't very credible.
考慮到美元短缺，任何可抑制美元需求的東西無疑都是人們樂見的。如今的歐元似乎可替代美元，但歐元並不十分可靠。Japan may be considered a haven today, but the Japanese yen has never served as a contender for status as a serious reserve currency.
今天，人們或許會把日本視爲"避風港"，但日元卻從未努力爭取成爲重要的儲備貨幣。Today renminbi-denominated transactions are a small part of total global trade, but the number of such transactions is growing and the rate of growth is accelerating, with the explicit approval of the Chinese government. Last autumn, the People's Bank of China said it would like to see precisely 10 per cent of China's trade denominated in the local currency. Today it may be over 12 per cent.
目前，在全球貿易總額中，人民幣計價貿易只佔一小部分；但是，在中國政府的明確支持下，此類貿易的數量正在增長，增速正在加快。去年秋天，中國央行表示，它認爲人民幣計價貿易在中國貿易總額中的佔比剛好爲10%。現在，這一佔比可能已經超過12%。Chinese banks are a big source of liquidity for the whole region. They are, for example, financing many of the big infrastructure projects from India and Indonesia to the Philippines and Sri Lanka. Project finance specialists say it will be a matter of time before many of those projects are denominated in the Chinese currency.
中國的銀行是整個地區流動性的一大來源。例如，它們爲從印度、印尼到菲律賓、斯里蘭卡的衆多大型基礎設施項目提供融資。項目融資專家表示，其中許多項目用人民幣計價只是時間問題。Many bankers expect that capital controls in China will be lifted as early as 2015. ANZ expects the renminbi to be the second largest currency for global trade by that time. Both lending in renminbi and investment in renminbi will swiftly follow.
很多銀行家預計，中國對資本的管制最早將於2015年解除。澳新銀行預計，屆時人民幣將成爲全球貿易中的第二大貨幣。人民幣貸款和人民幣投資很快也將跟進。Yet there are significant challenges facing China. Some analysts say that China may post its first balance of payments deficit since 1992 this quarter. Banks are beginning to face liquidity and funding challenges.
不過，中國也面臨着嚴峻挑戰。部分分析人士指出，本季度，中國國際收支或許將錄得1992年以來的首個赤字。中國銀行業開始面臨流動性和融資困難。If capital flight, which seems to be increasing following the scandals in Chongqing, becomes a serious issue, the ambitious timetable for reforms such as lifting capital controls would probably be extended, possibly for years.
如果資本外逃發展爲嚴重問題，爲廢除資本管制等改革舉措設置的雄心勃勃的時間表，很可能會延期，甚至可能延期數年。自重慶事件以來，中國的資本外逃似乎愈演愈烈。Sceptics say that the efforts to get foreigners to hold renminbi come precisely at the time that the currency is no longer appreciating. Indeed, it trades below where the PBoC officially fixes the rate. But even most sceptics expect the renminbi to gain in value in the long term.
懷疑論者表示，讓外國人持有人民幣的努力恰好出現在人民幣不再升值的時期。確實，現在的人民幣匯率低於中國央行設定的水平。不過，大多數懷疑論者仍預期，人民幣在長期內將會升值。The same cannot be said of the prospects for the US dollar – though at the moment it looks attractive on a relative basis. The renminbi seems by far the likeliest candidate to at least challenge it, tomorrow if not today.
美元的前景就不同了——儘管美元當前似乎相對較有吸引力。人民幣顯然是最有可能至少對美元地位構成挑戰的貨幣，即使今天不行，未來有一天也會撼動美元。
