中國不是匯率操縱者

President Donald Trump triggered a slide in the US dollar as he complained the currency has risen too high — in part because of what he said was confidence in his own presidency.

美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)抱怨美元已經漲得太高，此言導致美元應聲下滑。據他所稱，美元漲得太高部分是因爲人們對他的任期有信心。

Commenting just days before gatherings of finance ministers from around the world in Washington,

幾天後世界各國財長將齊聚華盛頓開會，在此之際特朗普還透露了一個重大的政策轉變，他表示，美國政府不會把中國列爲“匯率操縱國”。

Mr Trump also revealed a major policy U-turn as he said that the US government would not label China a currency manipulator.

在接受《華爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal)採訪時，特朗普拒絕完全排除再次任命珍妮特?耶倫(Janet Yellen)爲美聯儲(Fed)主席的可能性，儘管他在競選中曾承諾不會給她第二個任期。

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Mr Trump declined to shut down the possibility of re-nominating Janet Yellen as chair of the Federal Reserve despite campaign pledges not to offer her a second term.

特朗普以前談及將採取哪些措施解決美國貿易逆差及振興國內製造業時，表達過對美元匯率水平的擔憂。他關於美元匯率的坦率言論與美國傳統上奉行的“強勢美元”政策背道而馳，令人擔心美國可能推行一種更加激進的匯率外交策略。

Mr Trump has previously expressed concern about the level of the dollar as he discusses measures aimed at tackling the US trade deficit and bolstering manufacturing within the US. His blunt words on the currency have clashed with America’s traditional “strong dollar” policy and triggered concerns that the US could pursue a more aggressive approach to foreign exchange diplomacy.

在這次採訪中，特朗普說道：“我想我們的美元正變得過於強勁，這部分是我的錯，因爲人們對我有信心。但那會造成損害——最終是會造成損害的。”

In the interview Mr Trump said: “I think our dollar is getting too strong, and partially that’s my fault because people have confidence in me. But that’s hurting — that will hurt ultimately.”

他說：“嗯，強勢美元很有一些好處，但通常來說，它最好的地方就是聽上去很好……當你有一個強勢美元，而其他國家正將他們的貨幣貶值，你就很難、很難與人競爭。”

He added: “Look, there’s some very good things about a strong dollar, but usually speaking the best thing about it is that it sounds good?.?.?.?It’s very, very hard to compete when you have a strong dollar and other countries are devaluing their currency.”

特朗普表示，他已經改變了對中國管理人民幣方式的看法。而幾周前他還說北京是匯率操縱的“總冠軍”。在整個競選期間，他也一直威脅要在上任頭一天就正式將中國列爲匯率操縱國。

Mr Trump added that he had changed his mind on China’s management of the renminbi, despite saying just weeks ago that Beijing was the “grand champion” of currency manipulation. He also threatened throughout his campaign to officially label China a manipulator on day one of his presidency.

如今他說：“他們不是匯率操縱者。”

“They’re not currency manipulators,” he said.

而他這番大轉彎之後，預計美國財政部過幾天就將發佈特朗普上臺以來的首份每年兩次的匯率報告。

The stark change in his language comes just days before the US Treasury is expected to come out with the first twice-yearly currency report of his administration.

特朗普表示，他之所以改變對中國的看法，是因爲中國最近幾個月沒有在操縱人民幣匯率，而且他不想因此影響有關朝鮮的談判。

The president said he had changed his mind on China because it had not been manipulating its currency for months and because he did not want to hurt discussions over North Korea.

美國財政部前駐華特使杜大偉(David Dollar)表示，特朗普似乎還在是承認，將中國列爲匯率操縱國根本沒有道理。

But David Dollar, a former US Treasury representative in China, said Mr Trump also seemed to be conceding that the case simply was not there.

杜大偉表示：“我認爲，這是非常積極的進展，因爲很多分析人士都指出，中國沒有通過干預促使人民幣貶值。中國實際上在通過干預支撐人民幣匯率留在高位。

“I think it’s a very positive development because a lot of analysts have been pointing out that China has not been intervening to keep their currency down. China has actually been intervening to keep their currency high,” he said.

“把中國稱作匯率操縱國沒有真正有力的事實依據。因此這似乎像是在承認事實。”

“There was not really a good factual basis for calling China a currency manipulator. So this seems like a recognition of reality.”

布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)高級研究員埃斯瓦爾?普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示：“特朗普正向經濟現實屈服，他不再指責中國操縱匯率。同時，他正提醒中國和美國的其他主要貿易伙伴注意，如果他們與美國的雙邊貿易順差沒有逐漸縮窄，他就會找他們的麻煩。”

Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said: “Mr Trump is bowing to economic reality by holding back on invoking the currency manipulation charge against China. At the same time, he is putting China and America’s other major trading partners on notice that he will take them to task if their bilateral trade surpluses with the US don’t shrink over time.”

他補充稱：“這是頗爲不同尋常的，一位美國總統竟然明確把美元價值與其政府政策聯繫在一起，還暗示他希望美元朝着什麼方向波動。”

He added: “It is rather extraordinary for an American president to explicitly link the value of the dollar to his administration’s policies and to indicate what direction he’d like the dollar to move in.”

特朗普曾在美國大選期間表示，他不會讓耶倫連任。但特朗普週三表示，“現在還爲時過早”，他還表示她“並沒完蛋”。特朗普說他“很有可能”不會讓她連任，還說他喜歡“低利率政策，我必須老實地告訴你們”。

Mr Trump said during the campaign that he would not reappoint Ms Yellen to a second term. But the president said on Wednesday that “it’s very early” and that she was “not toast”. He said he would “most likely” not offer her a second term, adding that he liked a “low-interest rate policy, I must be honest with you”.

特朗普有關美聯儲和利率的言論可能會減弱外界的如下猜測：特朗普將任命一位利率鷹派人士擔任美聯儲主席。在美國大選期間，他曾強烈批評耶倫的低利率政策，但自從就任以來，他領導的美國政府放棄了對美聯儲的批評。