償債是中國資本外流最大因素
While an overseas buying spree by Chinese companies has grabbed headlines, more mundane activity such as trade finance and corporate cash management are a much bigger strain on China’s foreign exchange reserves, analysis of official data shows.
儘管中國企業的海外收購熱潮成爲頭條新聞，但是對官方數據的分析顯示，貿易融資和企業現金管理等更平凡的活動是造成中國外匯儲備降低的更大因素。
The dominance of bank lending and portfolio investment as a source of Chinese capital outflows casts doubt on whether Beijing’s recent clampdown on big-ticket foreign deals by the likes of Dalian Wanda and Anbang Insurance can shield the renminbi from downward pressure, intensified by the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate rise on Thursday.
銀行貸款的償還和組合投資的解除在中國資本外流中佔據主導地位，令人懷疑北京方面能否通過近期對大連萬達(Dalian Wanda)和安邦保險(Anbang Insurance)等中資企業的境外大筆交易踩下剎車，來阻止人民幣受到下行壓力的影響；美聯儲(Federal Reserve)上週四加息加劇了這種壓力。
Bank lending and securities investment accounted for $301bn in net outflows from China in the first nine months of the year, compared with $78bn from outbound foreign direct investment, according to Financial Times analysis of balance-of-payments data.
根據英國《金融時報》對國際收支數據的分析，銀行貸款的償還和證券投資的解除在今年前九個月中國的淨資金流出中佔3010億美元，相比之下對外直接投資佔780億美元。
Beyond loan repayments and securities sales, illicit flows are also increasingly prominent.
除了償還貸款和賣出證券外，非法資金流也越來越突出。
Errors and omissions — a catch-all for cross-border transfers that have not been properly classified — caused net outflows of $89bn in the first half of 2016, which is also nearly double the $46bn net FDI outflows in the same period.
2016年上半年，錯誤與遺漏項目（對於未經適當分類的跨境資金轉移的一個籠統表述）造成890億美元淨流出，幾乎兩倍於同期460億美元的外國直接投資(FDI)淨流出。
Errors and omissions are not yet available for the third quarter.
第三季度的錯誤與遺漏數據尚不能獲得。
China has taken substantial steps since 2012 to liberalise cross-border money flows as it sought to internationalise its currency and pursued the International Monetary Fund’s endorsement as a reserve currency.
自2012年以來，中國採取重大步驟放開跨境資金流動，力圖使人民幣國際化，並追求國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)認可其爲一種儲備貨幣。
Those steps have opened the door to unprecedented capital outflow pressure as hot money now leaves through the same deregulated channels through which it entered.
這些步驟爲前所未有的資本流出壓力開啓了大門，現在熱錢正通過與入境時相同的放松管制的渠道流出。
Several hundred billion in outflows are simply associated with repayment of existing loans, said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former US Treasury official.
數千億美元的外流只與現有貸款的償還有關，美國外交關係委員會(Council on Foreign Relations)高級研究員、美國財政部前官員布拉德.塞澤爾(Brad Setser)表示。
Foreign bank claims on China, a broad measure of cross-border lending, have fallen by $305bn in the 18 months through June this year, according to the most recent figures from Bank for International Settlements, showing how banks are pulling funds from the country.
根據國際清算銀行(BIS)近期的數據，外資銀行對中國實體擁有的債權（跨境放貸的廣義衡量指標）在截至今年6月的18個月裏下降了3050億美元，顯示各銀行正從中國撤回資金。
Claims had risen by $643bn in the previous two years.
在之前兩年，外資銀行在華擁有的債權曾增加6430億美元。
Much of this lending came in the form of trade finance.
這些貸款有很大一部分是貿易融資。
When the renminbi was appreciating against the dollar, Chinese importers eagerly borrowed in dollars.
當人民幣對美元升值時，中國進口商急切地以美元借款。
Such borrowing was effectively a bet on the Chinese currency appreciating because in renminbi terms, dollar debt was cheaper to pay back by the time the loan matured.
這類借款實際上是對人民幣升值的押注，因爲以人民幣計算，美元債務在貸款到期時償還起來更便宜了。
Now outflows are occuring as importers repay foreign loans and shift to local financing.
如今，隨着中國進口商積極償還外幣貸款，並轉向國內融資，中國出現了較大資金外流。
Savvy cash management by corporate treasurers seeking to maximise returns on idle cash likewise fuelled inflows.
同樣，尋求最大限度提高閒置現金回報率的企業財務主管的精明現金管理，也曾助燃了資金流入。
In addition to gains from renminbi appreciation, corporations could profit from higher interest rates available in renminbi at a time when the Federal Reserve was holding dollar rates near zero.
除了人民幣升值帶來的收益外，在美聯儲將美元利率保持在接近於零的低位之際，企業可以獲利於人民幣較高的利率。
Corporates rushed to raise funding in dollars because interest rates were very low.
企業紛紛用美元融資，因爲那時利率很低。
Now that carry trade is being unwound, said Harrison Hu, China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore.
現在這類套利交易正被解除，蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)駐新加坡的中國經濟學家胡志鵬(Harrison Hu)表示。
To be sure, the regulatory focus on corporate deals is a response to a rapid acceleration of outbound FDI.
應該承認，中國監管機構對企業併購的關注是對中資對外FDI迅速加快的迴應。
But it also reflects the lower disruption from tightening the reins on foreign acquisitions compared with forcing loan or bond defaults by blocking cross-border debt repayments.
但它也反映出，相比阻止跨境償債來迫使貸款或債券違約，收緊境外收購的干擾程度較低。
Even so, some bankers and analysts now worry that even debt payments will eventually feel the impact of the recent clampdown on outflows.
即使如此，一些銀行家和分析師現在擔心，就連償債支付最終也會感受到近期對資金流出的限制的影響。
The cross-border regulations could definitely have an impact on companies that have offshore debt, said Xia Le, chief Asia economist at BBVA in Hong Kong.
跨境監管肯定會對有境外債務的企業產生影響，西班牙對外銀行(BBVA)駐香港的首席亞洲經濟學家夏樂表示。
There is a concern that many will have to refinance but at a much higher cost.
現在有一個擔憂是，許多企業將不得不以高得多的成本進行再融資。
They will need to issue very high-yielding bonds.
他們將需要發行收益率很高的債券。
